Oh I’m not upset about your opinion I’m just offering the other side. We absolutely have debt but you also said.

“CH11 doesn't make Jetblue a "more attractive merger target" any more than either of the two Spirit CH11 made it more attractive”

I was pointing out that if you look at history BK and mergers tend to go hand in hand.

I am glad management has told you information unknown to the public about how you have first right of refusal to our gates or you get slots if we get bought and so on.

You also told us how Kirby said mergers are hard, United is growing and has a massive order book and United next. However with that said he apparently made a run at AA which I find to be funny.

Most people over here have a hard time with you because you speak as if you are in the room where decisions are made instead of just another line pilot like the rest of us. Feel free to post away just understand how it comes across.

 

A lot of us hope our ELT can pull it off as well. Given some of the stuff I have seen from a few of your guys I guess in your Facebook forum (hi Josh) It does not look like an enjoyable flight deck experience.

As for the holding out hope that is correct it did not work for spirit. It did however work out for AA US Airways United NWA Air Tran Continental and America West. However these are different times so who knows.

 

To be clear not a united forum just another Facebook forum.

 

There is no historical precedent for a company like JetBlue Airways surviving with its current scale, management missteps, and debt burden. Yet many employees continue clinging to selective data points suggesting the financial situation is “not as bad as expected,” effectively celebrating a $300 million loss simply because it could have been worse. At some point, that stops being optimism and starts resembling Stockholm syndrome.

 

Agree with this, so what do you think the final outcome will be? Shut down like NK? Merger with a larger carrier? Are those the only two viable options? As we discussed before I’m not sure how we grow in a considerable manner from here.

 

Yes those are the only two options at this point. The other option that was always the plan when Robin was here was to just keep growing to a point organically where we could have scale to overcome our other problems. Unfortunately we've sharply pivoted away from that, so our two choices are a slow fade to bankruptcy, or getting bought which seems increasing unlikely. Get your apps out folks.

 

I don’t see a major carrier acquiring JetBlue outright. As Scott Kirby has indicated, the interest appears to be in assets rather than the airline as a whole. If no asset transaction materializes, then Chapter 11 becomes an increasingly logical possibility, which would almost certainly result in a significantly smaller airline emerging on the other side.

What happens after that is less clear. Could JetBlue survive as a smaller niche carrier? Possibly. At that point, the larger legacy airlines would have to decide whether aggressively forcing the airline out of the market is worth the effort, or whether allowing a smaller niche competitor to exist is acceptable.

As this situation evolves, employees should also realistically expect pressure on pay, benefits, and work rules. The assumption that Chapter 11 remains far off simply because the company still has assets and cash available doesn’t fully hold up in my view. Eventually, if management and lenders conclude the losses are structural and the bleeding will not stop, they stop financing the decline rather than allowing it to continue indefinitely.

 

Yes even as a small niche carrier we would be struggling long term without any real prospects for growth and spreading costs over a larger number of ASMs. The small niche carrier only works if you have a defensible and dominant market share in a large metro area. I’m not sure if FLL would be enough even if we can make it happen there.

The oft mentioned AA bankruptcy where they had lots of cash but bad trajectory would be the blueprint for a JB Ch11 filing in my mind. Waiting until all the furniture has been burned is a bad idea.

 

During AA’s bankruptcy it was still 10-12% of the domestic market. Comparing that to jetblue is apples-to-oranges given JetBlues almost insignificant market share.

There is a path forward in the form of an asset sale consisting of at least 25%. Being selfish, at least the pilots will continue to maintain employment.

 

lol we already are a small niche carrier… look at our total market share

We can’t grow outside our markets we’re in now. It’s been how long? No new markets other than small cities like PQI at the expense of other smaller cities like BTV.

we’ve simply shuffled flying around in the markets we already fly. Add a 220 on a 190 route and call it ASM growth. The only arguable growth is in Europe with more destinations but axing one FL/NE city for another isn’t growing. We’re surviving not thriving.