Realistic

Don't forget:
auxiliary fuel tanks
dual HUDS
manufacturer's training
managers, directors, and miscellaneous hangers-on out the ying yang
snow globes
and
leather jackets...
AMP is just a few million dollars, why should we worry about spending money when we have our costs under control?
Hell, we're the lowest cost carrier in the industry! We SHOULD be spending money!

Realistic

I'm going to make a prediction and this forum allows me to save it for posterity.
Transcon turns will be GREAT for a few and they will SUCK for a few.
The rest of us will either see no improvement or, our mid-seniority lines could be robbed of productive flying....hard to say.
One thing is for sure...we won't need as many pilots in a given base to fly a given set of hours.
For posterity.

FNG320

Normally I agree 100% with everything you say, but for once I do disagree with you.

I will admit that is very possible that it could come out just the way you say, but is also just as possbile and I feel more likey to work out that everyone see a productivity increase. It may be 2-4 hours per day for the senior guys, but I predict that it will still filter down to the middle and junior bidders. The junion bidder will most likely only get 30 minutes per day increase but that is still a step in the right direction. Hey, SJU will be come a middle bidder trip with all of the transcon turns going senior. Remember most of our trips are transcons now, so doing as many as turns (with in the critera of max 2 flights, and operate 7am-9pm. Yes, there will still be redeyes and we will have to see what happens with them.

As for less pilots, sort of. Remember everyone will still have the 30/7 and 100/month restrictions. It will allow you to get 90-95 per month if you want to, but that means commuting up to JFK for a single 1 or 2 day trips. Remember four commutes means less time off. (I prefer 3 commutes per month) and I am for quality of life. But if we all fly our 80-85 hours per month the number of line holders will remain the same, so no decrease in line holders. Now if JB wanted to control the number of pilots who go above 85 hours, all they have to do is reduce the min/target/max divider and give out most of the opentime to the senior reserves so no one can pick it up.

Now, where there could be a reductions is the required number of reserves needed. Since there will be less pairings per day to cover, there could be a reduction in the required number of reserves. Thus JB could use those reserves to allow more PTO/UTO/Triptarding as we are suppose to get, or you reduce pilot hiring to get us back down riding the edge of manning like w are now. I hope the do what I am say, but they could do the reduce hiring slightly.

On a side note, if the transcon turns do happen, then I don't think it will affect the E190. Since is supppose to be a 2 leg day, and since the 190 will mainly be moving up and down the east coast they won't see it any time soon.

Any way, I hope it happens, but we will all have to wait and see.

Just my opinion.....

FNG

FNG320

In talking to those in the test, the primary goal is two legs, with the ability to go above 8 hours, but remain within the normal scheduled 14 duty day and remaining on a eastcoast night sleep cycle (or west coast for LGB guys) and no redeye turns as that is out of our normal sleep cycle. There may be some type or rest restrictions after such a trips but unknow at this time. Thus the BUF-JFK-LGB-JFK or the BUF-JFK-SLC-JFK is out because that is has 3 legs in it. I see some definte transcon turns JFK-LAS-JFK or JFK-LGB-JFK et al, but also allows some really creative parings like this

Day 1 JFK-MCO-JFK-TPA RON (7.5 hours)
Day 2 TPA-JFK-LGB RON (9.0 hours)
Day 3 LGB-JFK-Buf-JFK end (7.5 hours)

That gives 24 hours in 3 days for an average of 8 hour per day.

For LGB it could be:

Day 1 LGB-JFK-MCO RON (7.5 hours)
Day 2 MCO-JFK-OAK RON (9.0 hours)
Day 3 OAK-JFK-LGB end (11.5 hours)

That gives 28 hours in 3 days. Man, I would love to get a schedule like that! They are all built with less than 8 hours per day with 3+ legs or if over 8 hours, then 2 legs max.

Now, yes the senior guys may get a schedule like this (depending on rest requirements)

Day 1 JFK-OAK-JFK (11+30 hours)
Day 2 JFk-OAK-JFK (11+30 hours)
Day 3 JFK-FLL-JFK (5+40 hours)

or

Day 1 JFK-OAK-JFK (11+30 hours)
Day 2 JFk-FLL-JFK late in the day for extra rest after Transcon turn (5+40)
Day 3 JFK-OAK-JFK (11+30) hours

for a total of 28+40 in three days. Working a total of 86 hours in 9 days. As a senior bidder that is what they would get. But if senior guys get 85 in 9 days, hopefull, the junior guys will be able to get 85 ours in 12 days! That would be real progress!

Now who knows what will happen, but I think it will work out. (keeping my fingers crossed).

Just my opinion....

FNG

Double Digit

The latter was done during the scientific study.

cactusmike

We (Other Airlines) will be watching this with great interest.

I spent some time on our ALPA safety committee and did some research into fatigue and attended a NASA sponsored seminar. The success of this waiver will depend on the rest in between duty periods and the rotation of schedules. Flag rules address some of this type of flying. FAR 121.481 says that you will get 18 hours of rest if you have flown more than 8 hours in any 24 hour period. That is a good guideline. Anything less than 18 hours would not give your body a chance to recover and give you time to commute home (driving or flying), eat, rest and attend to anything you may need to do at home.

Also, I don't know what limts you have on back side of the clock flying. If you try to do an OAK turn or SEA turn starting at 8 pm (EST) and returning at 8 am you will run into serious fatigue issues. We have an 11 hour duty limit for back side of the clock flying. We also have a rule that if you fly through your circadian low (3 to 5 am home base time) you cannot operate another leg after you land. The only exception is for wx diversions and you can still cancel for fatgue if you need to. I've done a couple of those diversions and we were wasted after the flight.

Fatigue is an insideous thing. You generally cannot tell your personal level of fatigue. It's kind of like drinking, the effects sneak up on you and you need an outside observer to determine your level of effectiveness.

Hopefully JetBlue is doing this study on a scientific basis and has independent observers to quantify the results. Just because the faa signs the waiver doesn't mean that it is safe, just politically correct.

Double Digit

Realistic,

Please explain how we won't need as many pilots in a base with tcon turns. A pilot doing transcon turns will work 7-9 days a month for about 88 hours. Hours are the factor here not how fast you get them. The amount of hours will remain the same so the number of pilots required to fly those hours will remain the same.
If that is not true please help me understand.
Thanks

Realistic

Explain how you're so sure average monthly credit won't go up - even it if it is driven up by the top 200? Why not get paid even more for the same days off if you can work it? It's always cheaper for the company to pay one person premium pay than it is to keep another full time body on the property.

Realistic

As an example:
Say 10 LGB pilots get 8 TCON turns a month for 88 hours with 22 days off, or for that matter, 8 TCON turns are introduced for the whole base. We drive the line holder average way up and force another couple guys out on reserve - because lord knows our block hours won't go up.
So now we run the base with fewer pilots for a given set of hours - anyone that gets fed up and bids out will never make it back.
Those of you reading this that are already 320 line holders could care less but remember that from August forward the number of people who DO care gets larger and larger.

Double Digit

Actually we do care what happens to our brethren regardless of seniority. They can't drive max schedule over 90 hours for more than a month or two because of the 1000 hour rule so I still don't get what your point is. Our reserve system does need to be revamped but I don't think TCON turns is going to lengthen anyone's time on reserve.