JetBlue Latest and Greatest
01-31-2021, 05:30 AM
Layover Master
Joined APC: Jan 2013
Position: Seated
Posts: 4,311
Originally Posted by Bluedriver
The 65% hub to hub, is that 65% of each hub to hub route? Or 65% averaged between all the hub to hub routes?
Same with hub to Caribbean, if it's a Caribbean average, JB just does 35 flights a day to SDQ and AA does all the other islands. Still 65% average to the Caribbean.
Same with hub to Caribbean, if it's a Caribbean average, JB just does 35 flights a day to SDQ and AA does all the other islands. Still 65% average to the Caribbean.
01-31-2021, 05:30 AM
On Reserve
Joined APC: Mar 2017
Posts: 15
Originally Posted by Ted Striker
Also, ok so 65% is ASM is the floor they keep saying, that’s just a tick up from 50/50. You can bet just like the scheduling section nightmare when ALPA said, “why would they do that” “it doesnt make sense” “no way that will happen”. Then guess what happened? EVERY market that is above 65% will be adjusted to the minimum 65% and the rest farmed out to AA or AA feeder. Let me say this one more time.... FIVE YEARS WITH A TWO YEAR WIND DOWN, for 2% at a MINIMUM.
That’s a big if though because over 7-10 years a merger or significant equity purchase of either partner could change the math to make it more attractive.
01-31-2021, 05:37 AM
On Reserve
Joined APC: Mar 2017
Posts: 15
Originally Posted by Bluedriver
You need to stop saying Bluecity to Bluecity. Every destination on JB's map is a "Bluecity". Denver is a Bluecity. Detroit is a Bluecity.
The 65% restriction is on Focus city to Focus city. Those are the cities JB designates as Focus cities or where they have crew bases (BOS/JFK/LAX/MCO/FLL/SJU/SDQ/STI(can't remember if they designate DCA)).
The 65% restriction is on Focus city to Focus city. Those are the cities JB designates as Focus cities or where they have crew bases (BOS/JFK/LAX/MCO/FLL/SJU/SDQ/STI(can't remember if they designate DCA)).
01-31-2021, 05:43 AM
The REAL Bluedriver
Joined APC: Sep 2011
Position: Airbus Capt
Posts: 6,887
Originally Posted by A145
Assuming there’s no merger and the revenue sharing is less than 50/50 for coded flying the company would never have incentive to give away profitable flying.
That’s a big if though because over 7-10 years a merger or significant equity purchase of either partner could change the math to make it more attractive.
That’s a big if though because over 7-10 years a merger or significant equity purchase of either partner could change the math to make it more attractive.
01-31-2021, 05:51 AM
New Hire
Joined APC: Jan 2021
Posts: 2
Originally Posted by A145
LOA 13 provides no protection. Assuming those routes touch the northeast and are not blue city to blue city, they can codeshare without limit per the CBA and LOA 12. The DOT agreement does require us to keep basic service just about everywhere.
Reference: If the Company enters into a Joint Venture Agreement covering flying, any part of which is within the range of one or more aircraft in revenue service for the Company, then, in each trailing period of twelve calendar months commencing with the effective month of such Joint Venture Agreement, the Company will operate a percentage of the ASMs covered by the Joint Venture equivalent to the proportion of system-wide ASMs operated by the Company in comparison to the system-wide ASMs operated in that same period by the other carrier participating in the Joint Venture .
Last edited by Fisher; 01-31-2021 at 05:53 AM. Reason: Add domestic
01-31-2021, 06:23 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2020
Posts: 537
Every single flight from NYC and BOS that doesn’t go to a focus city or international can be done on American Eagle, and JetBlue can make money on it via the revenue sharing, which they have yet to disclose any details of. In our two biggest bases, we only have a guaranteed ASM share of focus city to focus city, and focus city to Caribbean. No other guarantees. Oh, and a 76 seater has twice as many ASMs per block hour as a 140/162 seater.
Also, the baseline ASMs are created in 2021...they could slash the remainder of 2021 flying, put a ton on american Eagle, then our baseline from which they have to grow is even smaller than it was in 2020. Grant tons of long term EILs, and then at that point our revenue is less than 35% and we furlough in November. Oh, and it isn’t until 2025 that it even matters (2027 actually). Then what? We grieve it? So...6-7 years from now we start the legal process while Eagle does 50% of our northeast flying and we have 1500 on furlough that whole time? Is JetBlue likely to do that? Probably not. But they can with this LOA. Until LOA13 is in place, there is no revenue sharing, and JetBlue can only allow Eagle to fly B6 code, but gets no monetary benefit. They are therefore more incentivized to outsource because of the revenue share. They still get a portion of the money but incur none of the cost. Unless I’m missing something from the secret revenue sharing model.
No reps have been able to address that point for me. They just say “trust me, that won’t happen. We don’t think they will do that.” One even said “it doesn’t matter where we fly, if Eagle takes all the short stuff, we will get new longer flights because we have ASM and block hour growth requirements, and flying is flying no matter where it is.” Well...no. 1) for the reasons above, the growth metrics and their lookback/enforcement time period are atrocious, and 2) giving away some flying thinking it was in exchange for other flying is exactly how the regionals proliferated in this country.
This is opening ourselves up for massive outsourcing to Eagle, as well as putting ourselves in the middle of a whipsaw with Eagle. Don’t do it.
Also, the baseline ASMs are created in 2021...they could slash the remainder of 2021 flying, put a ton on american Eagle, then our baseline from which they have to grow is even smaller than it was in 2020. Grant tons of long term EILs, and then at that point our revenue is less than 35% and we furlough in November. Oh, and it isn’t until 2025 that it even matters (2027 actually). Then what? We grieve it? So...6-7 years from now we start the legal process while Eagle does 50% of our northeast flying and we have 1500 on furlough that whole time? Is JetBlue likely to do that? Probably not. But they can with this LOA. Until LOA13 is in place, there is no revenue sharing, and JetBlue can only allow Eagle to fly B6 code, but gets no monetary benefit. They are therefore more incentivized to outsource because of the revenue share. They still get a portion of the money but incur none of the cost. Unless I’m missing something from the secret revenue sharing model.
No reps have been able to address that point for me. They just say “trust me, that won’t happen. We don’t think they will do that.” One even said “it doesn’t matter where we fly, if Eagle takes all the short stuff, we will get new longer flights because we have ASM and block hour growth requirements, and flying is flying no matter where it is.” Well...no. 1) for the reasons above, the growth metrics and their lookback/enforcement time period are atrocious, and 2) giving away some flying thinking it was in exchange for other flying is exactly how the regionals proliferated in this country.
This is opening ourselves up for massive outsourcing to Eagle, as well as putting ourselves in the middle of a whipsaw with Eagle. Don’t do it.
Last edited by copy; 01-31-2021 at 06:36 AM.
01-31-2021, 06:24 AM
The REAL Bluedriver
Joined APC: Sep 2011
Position: Airbus Capt
Posts: 6,887
Originally Posted by PotatoChip
Well, they made it a point in the podcast to use the word "aggregate" about nine times, so draw your own conclusions there.
01-31-2021, 06:36 AM
Layover Master
Joined APC: Jan 2013
Position: Seated
Posts: 4,311
Originally Posted by copy
flying is flying no matter where it is.
It's a small point, sure, especially in a pandemic when trying to keep afloat, but still, I don't want more SDQ/STI, and add in a bunch of MKE, DTW, CLE, IND, CVG...
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