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I think pre-covid rules are out. If AA goes into BK, I’d expect further shrinkage. It won’t be the same 15,900 pilot (plus a ton of regional pilots) strong airline it was. When you factor in early outs, retirements, and furloughs/zero time lines, legacies will all be about 30% smaller than they were by the end of the year. Combined, it’s the equivalent of an entire legacy being gone. And that may not even be all. There’s more natural shrinkage with retirements, and at least one airline has said more furloughs will be likely in 2021 if things don’t turn around. A merger with AS/B6/NK/F9 at this point, or say in 2021, would basically just make them the size they were in January. Add to that the complete shedshow that is the airline industry right now, if there was a clear path forward to eliminate some surplus and consolidate to a more sustainable business/industry, I don’t think the government would stop it, as that would lessen the government’s potential burden to bail out, pay unemployment, etc. And if the government is a shareholder of one of these airlines from the bailout agreements, and allowing a merge would be better for their chances of getting paid back, it’s even more incentive for them to approve it (though I’m not sure the DOJ/DOT could legally use that in their ruling, but I’m sure it’d be discussed).

Pre-covid, I didn’t think any legacy could merge, with the exception of maybe UAL because they were smaller, especially on the domestic side. But I think at this point, based on history with big disruptive events like this, consolidation will happen in some form. Not right now, as everyone is still in survival mode, but after the landscape is more clear with respect to post-pandemic travel, broader economic damage in the US, BK filings/outlooks/outcomes, etc. At this point, it would be nice if we were not involved in any consolidation, though.

Bluedriver

I don't entirely disagree, but as you said AA would have to go through bankruptcy first. And I think they would have a lot more guys on the when a merger began. Not that I wish that on anyone. Although the other guy made it clear you should only look out for your "side of the street"....

feltf4

Nah mate. You won’t retire from AA (opinion). Because they won’t exist (fact) . Hard to retire from a well run machine as AA is (opinion/sarcasm). Didn’t someone from AA say something about never losing money again like two years ago? (Fact) How’s that working out for you al? (This is a question) Still prettying money over there? (Also another question) You have attacked B6 pilots over and over again. (Fact) Are you done with it yet?(this is also a question).

just stating facts and opinions on a public message board.


if you seriously “sorry” about taking it out on us.. just shut your trap man. You just reek of narcism and condescending comment.

bababouey

Ch 11 is almost a forgone conclusion at this point, guys are naive to think otherwise. We will merge with Alaska or JetBlue, someone eventually will figure out how to make AA work, guys are worried right now because all their assumptions have been shattered, but this is a tough place to work right now, we are the weakling on the dodgeball team and most of us know it. We are fighting for our lives with a serial drunk driver at the wheel, God help us.


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Al Czervik

yup, and the problem is... imagine the 3rd time around bankruptcy contract we will bring to the merger.

blueballs

you seem simple. Please remember your contract allowed it. Not ours. It wouldn’t go through unless we agreed. We didn’t agree unless no furloughs. You can try and fix it on your next contract

Al Czervik

I guess I’m simple enough to see that the JB pilots may have a freight train coming at them. We’ll talk down the road.

blueballs

you’re adorable

Al Czervik

Bluedriver

You think a merger with JB pilots will be a freight train when your side will bring a BK contract to the table and likely have 30-50% of your pilots on the street by that point??? Against a pilot group with a much better contract and no pilots on the street???

Sounds more like a baby kitten than a freight train, but you do you.

One of the major problems AA has in chapter 11 is most of their debt is held against aircraft. They can't shed the debt without shedding new airframes, and that will only necessitate shedding more pilots!

Meeeooowwww.