Honestly, I'm not sure. I was really hoping to see a jump in travel by holiday 2020, and I've been saying since this all started that I think TSA numbers will cross 1 million over the Thanksgiving travel week. I'm still planning/budgeting for furlough in May though.

That said I just flew for the first time in months on a quick turn down to FL. It already looks different from a pax point of view from 3 months ago (last time i flew). Nobody today was wearing a 1 piece painters suit, gloves and I only saw 1 faceshield. Back in July, and prior to that, May, it seemed like the few people who actually flew were suited up ready to enter a containment lab. Today the pax seemed to act like normal people, except they were all wearing masks. Not sure if that's a good or bad thing.

I think there is definitely pent up demand to go places, and the flight today was almost full to it's capped limit. No way this is sustainable for anyone though, from the airlines to the airports and businesses around them. Seeing the departures board with only half a dozen flights on it around noon time is very depressing. I think aviation is effed for quite some time.

 

So every airline will liquidate is a realistic point of view then?

 

Im a cynic in this business. I’ve been around the block more than a few times.
However, I really do feel that this company has played their best cards over the last six months and I credit them that. I’ve been surprisingly happy with some of what they’ve done, and more so with our management/union relationship.
It’s NOT perfect. I do wish for better, and have expectations of such.
I do believe May furloughs are possible.
However, I think we will make it out of this, and will actually be leading the pack for at least the short term.

 

I've only been here about 4 years and have never really been high on where we were within the industry during that time, but weirdly I feel much better about it all now. Yes COVID and the low number of people traveling are a major issue. And maybe I'm totally delusional about a recovery that may take years, but I just don't see it.

The progress on the vaccine front coupled with the general fatigue of fear over all this are starting to turn things around. And when they do, I think we will be poised to take a sizable chunk of market share that will put us in great shape over the next decade or more. I think we will see a healthy rebound in the 1.25-1.5 million range by thanksgiving with a continual climb through New Years. I also think the timing couldn't have been better for us to dip our toe into the Europe market next year as well with how things are working out.

Like I said, I could be totally wrong and we are all screwed and just don't realize it, but I don't think that's going to be the case. And I'm usually a cynical and pessimistic person when it comes to the industry....

 

If I told you in 2019 that you’d be sitting around for 7-12 months doing nothing while a virus floated around and still collecting a pay check while people are holding cities hostages. Well, I bet you’d say that my point of view was realist as well.

Lets be honest. Nothings off the table mate at this point.

 

Agree to disagree then. This isn’t the end of the entire airline industry. Yeah a few airlines might go through Chapter 7, I’ll give you that much.

 

I guess with your idea, we'll go back to taking bus and trains to get to places if we can't afford to charter a private jet.

Your thought would be realistic if TSA numbers were currently 700-7000 ppl. Some might file bankruptcy but their customers would still fly on other airlines that are still flying. Boom sudden increase in business for the surviving airline. So I'd say yes, All airlines going into bankruptcy is off the table. Some is still on the table.

 

Well next to WN, B6 is probably the best place to be as far as cash and balance sheet. Very low debt relatively speaking: (Pre-Covid) airline owned just shy of 70% outright. Low debt to service vs legacies, improving revenue, $7ish M/day cash burn.

And, I have to say been impressed by some of the refreshingly bold moves to generate revenue. Could we furlough after May, possibly, but Ch 11 and Ch 7, slim chance IMO. Others will go there first, (way before B6), which will offer opportunity for improved revenue for B6 while others restructure. Just an opinion.

 

So, the other tail is called "waves" I believe, and clearly looks like waves on the tail. I suspect that it is JB's first etops aircraft. Possibly for Hawaii? I don't know. But I'm guessing it's an etops NEO to begin the flight portion of etops certification and possibly be used on future routes requiring etops other than London.

Total guess.

 

LR tail design = “Streamers”
NEO tail design = “Ribbon”
^^^^someone on a.net wrongly called it “waives,” not sure where that came from tho

Buddy of mine asked if the NEO would be ETOPS for that purpose. He was told no...LRs were the only ones the company is planning for ETOPS. But, I still think it would make sense since Johanna and/or Scott has said we will likely do mint to hawaii.