The thing that will most motivate management to come to a TA will be pilot attrition combined with reduced accessions that puts staffing at risk. Otherwise negotiations could take Years beyond what they already have.

Fortunately for the pilot group attrition seems to be starting to increase, and JetBlues applicant pool is shrinking thanks to pay/work rules/ retirement that are falling well behind career destinations and regional bases that many folks don't want to move or commute to.

 

Attraction hasn't really picked up much guys . Hate to say it , but so far we have lost 21 , 3 last week. Mean while the company planned for 42 up to this point in the year .

Both this year and last and the one before that have had less attrition than the company had planned for .

I agree with the theory that when people start bailing in droves it will put pressure on them , so far that hasn't really happened.

I truly believe it will in the future but just hasn't yet . One strong reason for this is American's hiring is only just now starting to pick up however with their flow agreements , and military hiring , off the street numbers remain quite low. Fedex picking up more of our guys now too.

Contrary to what you ready on here, of people no showing in class etc , it's largely exaggerated.

 

Yes the numbers, for now, are low, but dont discount the amount who have recently decided to make a move.
My guess is those low attrition numbers will double by the Fall. Plenty of 3-7 year FOs who live away from Boston/Mco/Fll are looking lovingly at UAL and AA.
I drive to work at JFK, hold holidays/weekends off, and would leave for Ny's other hometown Airline in a heartbeat
Think about how many B6 guys were at the latest WAI fair. The big 3 could unhinge B6 by hiring just 200 FOs each this year. I think the rough total on legacy hiring is UAL-450/ DAL 800+/ AA 600+. Those are low estimates.
Pay rates alone are reason enough to split and mediation is an ugly slug and could very well be upcoming.

 

I totally agree with all the above, things will change . question is, how soon.

 

As soon as B6 feels the pinch- Not a minute prior.

 

I wish the Big 3 would just start poaching JB pilots and picking it up faster, not only to put a big dent into JB, but also to get me out of this place faster

 

I was in an AA jumpseat recently. I live in DFW. Was chatting up the crew about hiring. Very senior CA - who told me he was involved with the hiring - said he'd push my resume through but if he were me he'd, "stay the hell away from this place (AA) and go to Delta." Now that was enlightening.

 

Delta seems to be the best run of the big guys.
I was telling bozo in a pm the amount of debt AA has is just huge.
But you wouldn't have to commute

 

Honestly I'm surprised they're not. Delta is hiring 1,000 pilots this year.

 

To add to your enlightenment, we had plenty of guys here at Delta during our latest section negotiations that were actively telling our new hires to leave and go elsewhere, even AA, all because of a perceived lack of retirement. These guys were typically the ones who still feel burned by losing their pensions during the bankruptcy years. Not much gets my blood boiling but when I found this out I couldn't believe it.

I mention this because everyone has their reasons for believing what they believe, however, even at a desirable place like Delta, we have our Debbie Downers, too.

And to the poster stating we are hiring 1000 this year, everything that's been made public from flight ops suggests only 700. That said, it's a fluid number but this year brings displacements from the closing of the 747 category, the new A350, and late this year the first wave of CS100 training events. 700 may be more plausible as the demand on on training department will be intense due to all of these issues.