SkyHigh

I happily take people at face value. USMCFLR is the one who does not.

Skyhigh

SkyHigh

Projected hiring at the legacy airlines that is based upon retirements assumes that the companies are going to stay the same or grow over the next 20 years. Thus far it seems that all they have done is to merge and shrink.

Most of the projections that Boeing has made regarding the future seems based upon a sunny economic future full of cheap aviation fuel. It is not far fetched to consider the possibility of a future of continued contraction at the majors.

Those who have been reading the news lately might share my concerns. I hope it will be growth though.

Skyhigh

Elvis90

The federal DOT disagrees with your assessment. Traffic will almost double in the US over the next 20 years.

FAA predicts steady growth for airline industry - USATODAY.com

WASHINGTON – The embattled airline industry will see solid long-term growth over the next 20 years with yearly passenger totals climbing from 713 million to nearly 1.3 billion, the government predicted today.

That growth will add huge new pressures on the aviation system, requiring technological improvements to ensure that it can handle the additional traffic, said Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood.

"We need to invest in aviation today to make sure America's economy remains competitive," LaHood said.

The annual Federal Aviation Administration aviation forecast projects small increases in airline flights and passengers this year compared to 2010. Overall, the amount of flights will decrease slightly this year due to continuing decreases in private aircraft flights, the FAA says.

After a decade in which the airlines lost a collective $60 billion, the FAA says the industry turned a profit last year of $9.5 billion as the U.S. economy rebounded from recession and airfares rose.

Domestic airline passengers are expected to increase by 3% this year over last and then climb by an average of 2.5% annually for the remainder of the next 20 years. International traffic is forecast to surge this year by 7.8% and continue growing by 4.3%, the FAA says.

Some airline industry experts see the government's forecast as overly rosy, given the past decade of massive upheaval in the industry.

"We've got some turbulence ahead of us, there is no doubt about that," says Darryl Jenkins, an airline consultant. "And it's going to be turbulent for another four or five years."

Stung by the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, high fuel prices and a sour economy, the airline industry has responded by slashing capacity. Given the huge debt that the industry carries from years of losses, Jenkins says he does not see a significant expansion any time soon.

"It's a very optimistic long-term outlook in an industry where optimism usually kills you," he says of the FAA's forecast.

Airline delays have fallen significantly since airlines, facing high fuel costs and heavy losses, began reducing flights in 2008. However, officials warn that strained airports in New York, Atlanta and other cities could once again face gridlock if traffic increases to previous levels.

"Only a modernized air transportation system will be able to keep up with our forecasted demand," says FAA Administrator Randy Babbitt.

HotMamaPilot

Ya, and it's gonna rain in louisville next wednesday and snow on friday.

Elvis90

It does that in Minnesota all the time!

USMCFLYR

Tell me how
Because I disagree with you?

You'll have to provide the post where I ever said that I know the trials and tribulations of a civilian only pilot's odessy to the life of a legacy airline pilot. I've never claimed such. Your rants have not only targeted airline pilots in the past but all of aviation and I have enough experience to speak against those generalizations; in addition to the numerous legacy airlines who alos disagree with your wide sweeping views.

If you don't think I have a right to post on this forum then I would suggest that since you never made it either that you should no longer post your thoughts and opinoins on the validity of a legacy airline career. Of course both suggestions are wrong.

USMCFLYR

SkyHigh

Another threat to legacy airline pilots jobs is continued outsourcing to code share partners and to contracted companies. Over the last ten years the legacy airlines have effectively sold their domestic business to the regionals.

Based upon past performance it seems a possibility that over the next decade the overseas routes could be sold out to companies with lower costs. Others have also suggested the same. The legacy carriers would effectively become travel agencies holding out to the lowest bidder over having to deal with constrictive and lengthy employee contracts.

My point is that no know one really knows what is going to happen. If you were to predict in 2000 what the industry looks like today it would have been dismissed as heresy. Lets all hope it is better. It could but what "better" is needs to also be defined. In the future there will most likely still be jets in the sky but who will be flying them and for how much?

Ten years ago top legacy airline pilots were bumping up against 300K.

Skyhigh

Airhoss

Ahh thanks for that mommy, now that we all know where you stand on the subject I'll be able to sleep through the night!

SkyHigh

It was only a few years ago that much of the focus from Legacy airline pilots on APC concerned scabs. You could tell that guys like "Kill Bill" would punch his keys as he tore into the subject.

Here it is only a few years later and who is the scab now? The legacy airlines ripped the guts out of their pilot contract yet there were no mass defections. The pilots probably wisely realized that at even half their former wage it is still better than anything they could find on the outside as a pilot.

The dream is dead yet still they come. 8000 plus per year eagerly willing to put their lives into the wood chipper that is a career as an airline pilot. There is no shortage of those who are willing to delude themselves.

To me aviation seems to draw Peter Pan types. Those who do not really want to grow up. They fantasize about having fun career that is divorced from the daily grind so that they can stay a kid forever. It seems as though the market has noticed by working to provide a play wage to go with it.

The benefits of being an airline pilot are going away yet still they come. There is no pilot shortage.

Skyhigh

brianb

Same old message from the man himself, Skyhigh. It's nice to see your consistent in your disgust for our profession Sky. I can only hope that one day you will realize what a blessing you have been to us all.