Airline Pilot Central Forums - ULCC Model in the U.S.

Airline Pilot Central Forums (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/)

- Major (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/major/)

- - ULCC Model in the U.S. (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/major/125192-ulcc-model-u-s.html)

Quote:

Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 2961487)

Not really in Europe, except Ryanair which as sort of established itself as the budget SWA over there. Many of the rest are falling like flies (their legacies aren't all doing so great either).

Other than airplane type, how do you compare these 2 companies? Ryanair literally has you pay for everything while southwest still has 2 checked bags for free. Bad analogies. Plenty of room to run for the ULCC’s in this country. The only problem i see is stage lengths- ULCC’s kill it when they can turn many segments in a day (more opportunities for them to sell bags, seat assignments, Cokes etc- you get the idea). But since this country is kinda on the bigger side, ULCC’s need the stage lengths to come down to have more opportunities to sell to their bases.

Speaking to your second point- yes some of the smaller ULCC’s in euroland aren’t doing so hot. But the larger ones are killllllling it. 500 million in profit? Some of the dumber ideas- crossing oceans and relying on POS with no network to fill 1 flight a day is dumb. But if Ryanair, Wizz or EasyJet decided to harness that network they run and send 5 XLR’s to say NYC, ORD, MIA, PHL and BOS a day, ohhh lord would the big 3 have a problem. Same can be said for F9/NK. Give it about 5 years and some economic heartburn, I think the legacy’s will start to hurt.

Quote:

Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 2961487)

Not really in Europe, except Ryanair which as sort of established itself as the budget SWA over there. Many of the rest are falling like flies (their legacies aren't all doing so great either).

This takes a stab at explaining it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cnfoTAxhpzQ

Thanks for the YouTube video. That guy makes some great videos.

The similarity between Ryanair and Southwest is their domestic market dominance, not their business model.

I've always argued that there really isn't a Southwest in Europe. It's Legacies and ULCCs. Frontier and Spirit management always likes to talk about how the ULCC market share in Europe is like 40% (or whatever they claim) and therefore F9 and NK can grow to that level. The only problem with that argument is the existence of Southwest.

I am a huge believer in the ULCCs here in the US and I'm betting my career on it, but we're never going to be as big as the ULCCs in Europe are. Southwest occupies too much domestic market share for us to get that big. I think the ULCCs will definitely grow a lot here, but will never be a dominant player

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aviatormar (Post 2961577)

Other than airplane type, how do you compare these 2 companies?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aviatormar (Post 2961577)

Speaking to your second point- yes some of the smaller ULCC’s in euroland aren’t doing so hot. But the larger ones are killllllling it. 500 million in profit? Some of the dumber ideas- crossing oceans and relying on POS with no network to fill 1 flight a day is dumb. But if Ryanair, Wizz or EasyJet decided to harness that network they run and send 5 XLR’s to say NYC, ORD, MIA, PHL and BOS a day, ohhh lord would the big 3 have a problem. Same can be said for F9/NK. Give it about 5 years and some economic heartburn, I think the legacy’s will start to hurt.

Those three are established now and occupy a large share of their niche, taken together they are *roughly* analogous to SWA in the US. That creates an ecosystem in which it's going to be hard for new ones to grow and thrive.

The US is similar with SWA... not a ULCC but it DOES occupy so much of the "cheaper than legacy" market that it serves as a spoiler for the massive growth of ULCC here.

Different evolutionary path here vs. Europe. I don't think there are three large, distinct markets: Legacy, LCC, and ULCC. I think that spectrum can be covered by two large business models which establish economy of scale, with a few small niche players filling in the gaps. I don't think there's room for a vast ULCC market here with SWA in the way. Unless they can steal pax from SWA. Probably some room for point-to-point growth, to work around the legacy hub-and-spoke system. But the legacy customer base is either locked into hub-and-spoke (small towns), set in their ways (older folks), need overseas access, or are just too high-dollar for ULCC (JB has tapped some of that with high-end service between elite destinations).

ULCC Model in the U.S.

Quote:

Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 2961713)

They both essentially created a niche (below and in addition to the traditional legacy market), and occupy a large share of it. Some of their customer base came from legacies, some was new. Details are different.

Those three are established now and occupy a large share of their niche, taken together they are *roughly* analogous to SWA in the US. That creates an ecosystem in which it's going to be hard for new ones to grow and thrive.

The US is similar with SWA... not a ULCC but it DOES occupy so much of the "cheaper than legacy" market that it serves as a spoiler for the massive growth of ULCC here.

Different evolutionary path here vs. Europe. I don't think there are three large, distinct markets: Legacy, LCC, and ULCC. I think that spectrum can be covered by two large business models which establish economy of scale, with a few small niche players filling in the gaps. I don't think there's room for a vast ULCC market here with SWA in the way. Unless they can steal pax from SWA. Probably some room for point-to-point growth, to work around the legacy hub-and-spoke system. But the legacy customer base is either locked into hub-and-spoke (small towns), set in their ways (older folks), need overseas access, or are just too high-dollar for ULCC (JB has tapped some of that with high-end service between elite destinations).

Southwest is not a ULCC so comparing them to Ryan Air and others is off base in my opinion.

Southwest includes more freebies in their base ticket than any of the legacies. Southwest is also more expensive than flying any of the big three here in the US most of the time. Ryan, Easy Jet and Wizz are basically the same business model as Spirit and Frontier. Spirit and Frontier just aren’t as big.

Stage lengths are key for ULCC’s. The shorter the better. People don’t care whether they’re going from DTW to LGA or EWR to LAX they want to pay $50. If they can squeeze 228 people into a 321 going from DTW to LGA and sell them drinks, seat upgrades and bags it’s more profitable than selling them the same bags and upgrades going coast to coast. The longer the flight the harder it gets to make any money or break even on just the base fare.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Quote:

Originally Posted by TrojanCMH (Post 2961913)

If they can squeeze 228 people into a 321

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Talking about squeezing- just read that WIZZ Air in Europe has 240! seats in their 321.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sunrig (Post 2961961)

Talking about squeezing- just read that WIZZ Air in Europe has 240! seats in their 321.

Yeah. Frontier has 230. But we have slim seats, only 3 rows of extra legroom and the "Space Flex" galley which adds an additional row. Our legroom is better than most domestic airlines economy. Not by "pitch" but in reality. Thinner seats give more legroom than the pitch would make it seem

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aero1900 (Post 2961984)

”Yeah. Frontier,”Our legroom is better than most domestic airlines economy.

Seriously! I get deadhead all the time on American and United. The 737 my knees are in the back of the seat in front of me. In our Airbus I have a little room. It’s crazy. Now if you want to talk about seat padding... we suck

Yep. I rode in the back of a United 737 the other day. It was shockingly bad. My knees were smashed into the seat. Far less comfortable than Frontier. Pathetic

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aero1900 (Post 2962007)

Yep. I rode in the back of a United 737 the other day. It was shockingly bad. My knees were smashed into the seat. Far less comfortable than Frontier. Pathetic

Rode on a Frontier Airbus the other day that had ok legroom but felt like I was sitting on a hard plastic seat on a subway. Pathetic.