ULCC or American?
#31
Having personally been furloughed twice at United, I seriously doubt large furloughs at legacies even with a major downturn. And unless it's a really major downturn, I don't see any furloughs happening at legacies during the next recession - there are just too many retirements. Sure, some open time will probably dry up and line pay values will probably decrease slightly. But furloughs at AA, UA, DAL? Unlikely.
But that's always a fun card to play to scare pilots below you to not make the jump to a possible better life at a legacy.
But that's always a fun card to play to scare pilots below you to not make the jump to a possible better life at a legacy.
#32
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Joined APC: Sep 2005
Posts: 1,735
AA hands down.
How many former AA pilots are at your ULCC? How many pilots have left your ULCC for AA? I've flown at UA with a lot of former ULCC pilots - they are extremely happy with their decision. The level of support by the entire organization is so much better at UA (and I'm sure all other legacies) than at any ULCC.
If I were in your shoes, I wouldn't hesitate to go for AA.
How many former AA pilots are at your ULCC? How many pilots have left your ULCC for AA? I've flown at UA with a lot of former ULCC pilots - they are extremely happy with their decision. The level of support by the entire organization is so much better at UA (and I'm sure all other legacies) than at any ULCC.
If I were in your shoes, I wouldn't hesitate to go for AA.
#33
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#34
I am not sure the conventional wisdom even applies any more. These ULCCs are growing 16-17% year over year. They have a young fleet of highly fuel efficient aircraft and a relatively young workforce which means their pilots are less costly even if they had the same payscales as the legacies - which they do not. It is an enormous advantage.
So which airlines are going to do better in the next recession - F9 and NK with their 4-5 year old A320 fleet or legacies like AA with their mixed aircraft fleet with an average age of 11 years (and a $23 Billion debt), United, and Delta both with 15 year old and less fuel efficient fleets? It might well be the ULCCs.
And please don’t say the Big Three are too big to fail, all three of them have been in bankruptcy in the last 16 years. We may be seeing a paradigm shift where the ULCCs are the airline equivalent of streaming video compared to the legacies DVD rental or (for those that remember) VHS.
So which airlines are going to do better in the next recession - F9 and NK with their 4-5 year old A320 fleet or legacies like AA with their mixed aircraft fleet with an average age of 11 years (and a $23 Billion debt), United, and Delta both with 15 year old and less fuel efficient fleets? It might well be the ULCCs.
And please don’t say the Big Three are too big to fail, all three of them have been in bankruptcy in the last 16 years. We may be seeing a paradigm shift where the ULCCs are the airline equivalent of streaming video compared to the legacies DVD rental or (for those that remember) VHS.
#35
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Posts: 3,251
Im going to go out on a limb and say the fact that MASSPORT approached AA about wanting to take some of their gates away because they had the lowest gate utilization rate compared to DL/UL/B6 had more to do with adding those flights than the price of fuel.
#36
I am not sure the conventional wisdom even applies any more. These ULCCs are growing 16-17% year over year. They have a young fleet of highly fuel efficient aircraft and a relatively young workforce which means their pilots are less costly even if they had the same payscales as the legacies - which they do not. It is an enormous advantage.
So which airlines are going to do better in the next recession - F9 and NK with their 4-5 year old A320 fleet or legacies like AA with their mixed aircraft fleet with an average age of 11 years (and a $23 Billion debt), United, and Delta both with 15 year old and less fuel efficient fleets? It might well be the ULCCs.
So which airlines are going to do better in the next recession - F9 and NK with their 4-5 year old A320 fleet or legacies like AA with their mixed aircraft fleet with an average age of 11 years (and a $23 Billion debt), United, and Delta both with 15 year old and less fuel efficient fleets? It might well be the ULCCs.
Lastly, when the economy dips, discretionary spending is typically the first thing that gets pulled back. The family trip to Disney gets put on hold, but the business trip to LAX is still going. Legacy carriers pay the bills with business travelers who are typically less sensitive to market swings.
#37
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Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,097
I'm guessing Spirit canceled them because they saw the competition was too great and realized yields would be trashed. AA didn't add flights because fuel prices had decreased, but your point about them adding flights due to gate utilization certainly has merit. I could see that.
#38
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Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,097
At least in Delta’s case, there is an enormous hedge built-in against a downturn - owned jets. With fuel prices low, economy strong, and MAX stored - the old planes still make a lot of money. If the economy starts to sour, DL can essentially throttle the owned 88s/90s/717s/757s/767s, and basically ‘park to profitability’. I would suspect that most ULCCs have a majority of their fleet leased, and it’s not as cheap or easy to park/return to lessor. Now of course I hope that scenario doesn’t occur, but with the thousands of pilots retiring in next few years - it’s hard to see a substantial furlough occurring at the legacy level. I can’t say i’m as confident for the ULCCs.
Lastly, when the economy dips, discretionary spending is typically the first thing that gets pulled back. The family trip to Disney gets put on hold, but the business trip to LAX is still going. Legacy carriers pay the bills with business travelers who are typically less sensitive to market swings.
Lastly, when the economy dips, discretionary spending is typically the first thing that gets pulled back. The family trip to Disney gets put on hold, but the business trip to LAX is still going. Legacy carriers pay the bills with business travelers who are typically less sensitive to market swings.
#39
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Joined APC: Nov 2016
Position: 6th place
Posts: 1,826
I am not sure the conventional wisdom even applies any more. These ULCCs are growing 16-17% year over year. They have a young fleet of highly fuel efficient aircraft and a relatively young workforce which means their pilots are less costly even if they had the same payscales as the legacies - which they do not. It is an enormous advantage.
So which airlines are going to do better in the next recession - F9 and NK with their 4-5 year old A320 fleet or legacies like AA with their mixed aircraft fleet with an average age of 11 years (and a $23 Billion debt), United, and Delta both with 15 year old and less fuel efficient fleets? It might well be the ULCCs.
And please don’t say the Big Three are too big to fail, all three of them have been in bankruptcy in the last 16 years. We may be seeing a paradigm shift where the ULCCs are the airline equivalent of streaming video compared to the legacies DVD rental or (for those that remember) VHS.
So which airlines are going to do better in the next recession - F9 and NK with their 4-5 year old A320 fleet or legacies like AA with their mixed aircraft fleet with an average age of 11 years (and a $23 Billion debt), United, and Delta both with 15 year old and less fuel efficient fleets? It might well be the ULCCs.
And please don’t say the Big Three are too big to fail, all three of them have been in bankruptcy in the last 16 years. We may be seeing a paradigm shift where the ULCCs are the airline equivalent of streaming video compared to the legacies DVD rental or (for those that remember) VHS.
There’s nothing revolutionary/disruptive about ULCCs. All they do is pay all of their employees below market rates. Not exactly a new idea.
#40
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Joined APC: Jan 2016
Posts: 137
That’s interesting, because I’ve heard the exact same thing about RDU: AA has the lowest gate utilization in Raleigh and the airport was threatening to do the same there.
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