OOfff

lying to people doesn’t save lives. What the hell are you even talking about?

Cloud5urfer

You’re right, in that we don’t have enough testing. I’ve already provided you with the current percentages based off of what we know. We’re working with an unknown. To just assume that the rate is probably lower, is extremely dangerous. Some places have had less severe cases, while others like Italy are having a much higher number of severe cases. One of the factors seen in China and why the fatality rate was higher initially, was because the healthcare system was overwhelmed. They simply couldn’t treat everyone with the quality of care needed to make this survivable in severe cases.



No, we haven’t. There are definitely more cases in the US than being reported, because we don’t have the test data. That’s a huge problem here. It’s been spreading for potentially 6 weeks undetected in Washington. It wasn’t in Italy when you were there in February. Or it was just getting there. China locked down in late January, and the virus trickled out after that.



You’re referring to me, while I said everyone exposed gets it, I didn't convey my meaning very well. We have no vaccines or natural immunizations (due to multiple exposures over a lifetime) to this virus. That could result in higher infection rates than the flu without the measures we're seeing put into place. If someone with the flu sneezes in your face, you’ve been exposed. Or more subtly, coughs in their hand, shakes yours, and then you impulsively scratch an itch on your nose or rub your eye before washing your hands.. Are you really arguing that you wouldn’t catch a virus in that scenario?

In contrast, maybe that infected person doesn't cough into their hand before your handshake. Or you were only in relative proximity to them. In that scenario you've still been "exposed," but you're right you may not catch it. You can still expect a 14 day quarantine though. And as potential exposures climb that will continue to affect more and more people.


The oil price wars would be a boon to the airlines. Drops in oil prices are not in any way related to capacity reductions. Delta – 15%, United – 10%, American 7.5%, Jetblue – 5%. Those are all because of the sharp decrease in travel demand from this virus.



The long incubation phase of this virus has been a huge challenge. You’re right, it goes undetected for weeks and then all of a sudden someone who’s been asymptomatic for 2 weeks is now spreading it unknowingly. That’s why its been hard to get it under control, especially without mass testing. I really disagree with touting this to media hype. The numbers I provided are what happens if we did nothing with this virus. That’s a very bad outcome, and it’s potentially optimistic.

What we’re seeing are the attempts to not let this virus get to those proportions. To do so, the economy is taking a hit or about to. Even one person who contracts the virus, and exposes an office, now puts that entire office in quarantine for 14 days. As the virus spreads and more people have to self-quarantine, they can’t go to work. They can’t generate income. For us, we can’t fly an airplane. All of those factors combine together. It’s not just about the people who get sick and die.



Thank you. The low testing rate currently is an absolute problem and the CDC needs to get it up to speed as soon as possible. Testing large portions of the population seem like the only way to get a handle on this without mass quarantines, and the South Koreans have done a fantastic job of doing so. Other countries are not, or failing to get their testing protocols in place (like the United States). As this continues to spread, we could start seeing the healthcare system overwhelmed like they have in Italy.



China and South Korea have made huge progress with stemming this virus, but you have to consider what they’ve done to do that. China put half the country into lockdown. If you can imagine that being done here in the United States, then you can see what we’re up against. It’s not going to just fix itself without some potentially drastic measures.



​​​​​It’s exponential if quarantines aren’t put in place. Quarantines affect many people, including those not infected because their infection status is unknown.

dera

It doesn't seem to be very contagious so chances are really low to catch it that way.

apex7

It can live on surfaces such as glass and metal for up to 7 days. If someone coughs it can live “airborne” for up to 30 minutes.

Handshakes are the least of your worries

dera

"It"?
You realize one copy won't do anything to you? You need to consider the viral load and it's shedding pattern. Based on the initial studies, the peak loads happen before the people are symptomatic, and after 8-10 days of showing symptoms they pretty much are not contagious at all.
There is also a study that shows humans start developing antibodies very quickly after they are infected. That explains why over 80% of people either never develop any symptoms, or have very mild symptoms.
This is why the initial spread was very fast, but it won't be very long lived. People simply aren't contagious for very long after they are infected.

ShooterMcGavin

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...-and-concerts/

HairyCannonball

Oh good grief. Normal life was abandoned when Jarts were no longer available.

Tom Bradys Cat

I find all these posts about the maths of the spread fascinating. This truely is a complex model that we (humans) are trying to figure out.

It seems that as each day goes by there are new subtle but very important variables discovered; each significantly changing the outcome.

Interested to see the actual model of this when its done and dusted.

135tankerdriver

The videos and article below are worth checking out IMO. Bottom line we should take this seriously and prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Infectious disease expert
https://youtu.be/cZFhjMQrVts

CDC expert
https://youtu.be/dcJDpV-igjs

Coronavirus comparison
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.blo...sars-ebola-flu

Mesabah

Government says the mortality rate is 1%.
https://twitter.com/ErickFernandez/s...68855067463681