ZapBrannigan

If you can, read this thread on Twitter from an Italian doctor. It's terrifying.


https://twitter.com/silviast9/status...654896129?s=21


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Deathwish

It reads as if the author is trying to make himself more important and relevant, like a Instagram model looking for more attention. Nothing terrifying.

MCDUmanipulator

omg were all going to die

atooraya

A bunch of you posting tiny percentage stats and circle jerking each other should start a Facebook page and invite the airline, cruise line, and hotel CEOs, along with Wall Street. Show them how much they’re over reacting to this common allergy season flare up. The Fed had to drop rates again and the 10 year bond is the lowest it’s been in a long time. There’s also rumors of payroll tax cuts tomorrow after airlines are cutting capacity because they clearly haven’t done the math.

Sincerely,
Still Looking for TP at Costco
Aka Alex Roger Stone Jones Pizzagate

P.S.
Don’t drink the water. It’s making the frogs gay

PPS.
Bone broth

Cloud5urfer

This is really crunching numbers to win a point while glossing over all the other important details.

It ONLY infected 80,000 people in China because they were so aggressive and put restrictions on 760,000,000 people. From self quarantines to not being able to leave your neighborhood. For weeks. Half the country came to a screeching halt. It has crippled their economy and in turn affected the world economy. Will they recover? Eventually. Will the world economy recover? Again, eventually.

This virus spreads like the flu, and has similar symptoms, but can result in more severe respiratory issues.

Using the 2017-2018 Preliminary Estimates from the CDC, we saw 45,000,000 cases of the flu, 810,000 hospitalizations (1.8%), and 61,000 deaths (0.136%). That 45,000,000 cases was with a vaccine in place, which greatly reduces the severity of the virus.

Based off current estimates, Covid-19 creates hospitalizations in ~20%, severe cases (difficult or labored breathing, an increased rate of breathing, and decreased blood oxygen levels) in ~14%, critical cases (respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction) in ~5%, and fatal in 2.5-3.4% of cases.

If this virus wasn't contained, and allowed to spread like the flu (not accounting for higher infection rate due to no vaccine) we'd see 9,000,000 hospitalizations, 6,300,000 severe cases, 2,250,000 critical cases, and 1,125,000-1,530,000 deaths.

That's why you're seeing large restrictions in countries like China, Italy, and South Korea. To stop it from getting to those proportions.

Am I personally worried i'm going to die from it? No. Am I panicking? No. But the likelihood of this causing significant disruption to normal daily life, the economy, and to us as airline professionals is high.

Al Czervik

the fact you left out for death rate is cases vs tested. No one other than S Korea has had a significant number tested. The majority of those tested are VERY sick which correlates to a higher death rate. There is a good possibility many more have had this with no significant detriment.

Andy

As a counterpoint, I argue that this has not been contained and most of us have already been exposed to coronavirus. I spent more than a week throughout Italy in mid-February. There were a ton of Asian tourists. The likelihood that I've been exposed is pretty high.
If I caught it during that time, I didn't notice.

IAFDOF

LOL counters a well-thought out post with facts and figures with “I was around some asians.”

PeakEGT

It is an unnecessary fear at this point but enough to put people into survival mode. As in not splurge on a vacation and this continuation is enough to trigger an economic downturn. Seeing first hand, flights to Orlando carrying less than 100 pax is unsettling during what should be the start of high season.Easy commute nonetheless.

pangolin

It just astounds me how people react. Fear is a powerful weapon.

I’m not giving in to security under pressure. I’m not giving up on the promise of adventure. I’m not giving in to impossible dreams....