NeverHome

It’s almost comical some of the posts on here. “It’s just a cold/ the flu” “it’s a conspiracy” “it only affects the elderly” etc.

First it’s not the flu or the cold. It’s a different virus. And just like other viruses, it can mutate. Mutation is the reason the HIV virus has been impossible to cure. Covid19 already has 2 known types L and S. The take away here is that we don’t want to give this virus the opportunity to spread, because as it does it may mutate into something far deadlier. Don’t be dumb.

Second, conspiracy theory’s? Really? The media does have corruption and leanings no doubt. Yet there are still facts being reported. Look for the credible sources and discern the facts from the fluff and BS.

Third, at the time I’m typing this, I have not seen this reason posted here: don’t spread it to protect the elderly and immune compromised. You may come out ok if you catch it. But you will inadvertently spread it to someone who won’t do so well. Are any of you really willing to kill someone just cause you don’t know enough to think this through? Yes you may be a conduit that allows the virus to get to those that cannot handle it. Don’t be a path for the virus. Don’t be the guy who let his body host this virus.

kaputt

Not refuting the rest of your post, but normally virus mutations tend to naturally select down to less dangerous strains. A deadlier virus will run out of hosts to replicate in. I’d have to go look again but I believe the less severe CoVID-19 strain is the one circulating the most.

Air Stang 7

We have to face the reality we're dealing with something that is unpredictable and unknown. It's easy to want to just shrug this off as just another cold and I did originally but clearly there's much to be learned. And it sounds like a lot of the testing worldwide has been inaccurate in some cases with false positives which means a higher mortality rate unfortunately.

NeverHome

I see your logic here. However there are a few point to clarify. It may be normal for viruses to downgrade in severity so to speak, but that is not guaranteed. Too soon to tell. You may be correct that the less severe virus is circulating. However due to the incubation time the deadly version may spread very fast before the host may die off. In other words, due to the lengthy time of showing no symptoms the deadlier version has plenty of opportunity to spread.

I want to reiterate to all that there already has been severe damage to the airlines and many careers. This is a horrible set back. In my opinion the best we can do is stop the bit from spreading. If we can effectively halt it perhaps we have a chance of restoring our industry sooner. If this gets much worse for longer, then restoration will be far mor challenging and costly.

rickair7777

Doubtful. It's clear that many, many people have mild or zero symptoms. The vast majority of those have not been counted either. Won't know numbers for sure until all the dust settles, but the mortality rate is clearly lower than initial fears, and the at-risk population is pretty clear (and may include smokers).

rickair7777

Well for most folks it is. And if you're at risk, you know who you are. Not a conspiracy though, you're right about that, that's pretty ridiculous.

Yes but that doesn't work like in the horror movies, which seems to be your scientific baseline.

Everything alive, plus viruses and prions (which are not actually alive) mutated to get to where it is.

HIV is not impossible to cure, it can be done with bone marrow transplants or by taking standard HIV meds for MANY decades (if you start at age 20, you might be cured by age 80-90). HIV is a tough nut to crack because it infects the immune cells which are supposed to kill it... the more the immune system tries to fight, the more it breeds the virus.

Don't be dumb? After what you just said???

Why hasn't the cold or flu mutated into something deadly?

Mutation is not an evil, deliberate process... it's random, and it always produces compromises.

HIV's compromise is that it kills very slowly, and is very hard to catch (specific sexual practices or needles).

Ebola's compromise is that it's hard to catch (large outbreaks are due to specific social customs, food, sexual practices), and that it's so lethal that it's spread is naturally limited.

No virus evolves to kill, especially quickly... that's counter-productive. They all evolve to reproduce (just like us), some of them just get a little carried away... fatality is a side-effect.

Horror-movie biology would be the aviation equivalent of an airplane which goes mach 25, has a ceiling of 300,000', carries 1000 pax, burns 1 pph, requires no pilots, and costs $5 to buy... you can't really have all of that stuff in one airplane. Push one boundary, you have to compromise on another.

Someone could die from the flu if I got that and passed it on (I do get the shot). I'll certainly take all reasonable precautions but it's pretty clear to me based on history that a panic-induced global economic collapse will likely kill more people than this bug, ESPECIALLY if you factor in any consequent warfare, forced migrations, genocide, etc... all of which tends to occur like clockwork when times are really hard.

I'm not going to stop living my life or going to work. Went out to eat tonight, they were pretty happy to see me. Not much of a crowd, and all young except one older guy... but he knows the deal, and made up his own mind to not hide under his bed tonight. I won't be visiting any older folks, including my neighbors or parents, just due to the nature of my job.

NeverHome

Rickair7777, I’m not sure where to begin. So I’ll start with the fact that nowhere in my post do I even hint at a “horror movie” style scenario. Nor is that a scientific baseline. It’s rather disappointing to see someone just invent pure BS as a way of discrediting my argument here. Clearly not what I was suggesting.

perhaps the HIV virus could be cured one day, but unless you have a source, it has NOT been cured. Advances in medicine has provided so much to help reduce the spread and give the host a better longer life, but if you really know how to cure it as you state then please either show where HIV has been cured or provide your knowledge to the medical community.

HIV is not impossible to cure, it can be done with bone marrow transplants or by taking standard HIV meds for MANY decades (if you start at age 20, you might be cured by age 80-90).

I will agree that viruses are not evil with intent. That’s just silly. It has certainly been proven that viruses are subject to natural selection and will mutate at random and will replicate as possible.

I keep seeing this notion that the corona virus is not as deadly as the flu. Maybe and maybe not. We will not know the true figure until the dust settles. Personally I find it irresponsible for people to compare the 2 when not enough is known about the corona virus. The reason is it can be misleading to people and they will make decisions based on bad information. I would rather people not spout crap especially when there is life and death consequences (this is killing people remember?). Yes it’s possible for the flu to spread through you to someone who is compromised. However, since the real mortality rate won’t be known for some time let’s not risk spreading this.

Im not suggesting you stop living your life or that the economy should tank (yes that would be deadly). Rather I’m advocating for people to be educated, responsible, and carefully consider the consequences of their actions. We can argue about science trivia all night, but in the end, what we do now right or wrong will have an impact.

rickair7777

Here's the cure: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/09/h...astillejo.html

It can done, but it's impractical for most patients, who will just need to keep taking meds.

It's also believed (but not yet proven for obvious reasons) that HIV meds will eventually eliminate the virus after many decades... you probably won't live long enough to find out unless you got the virus very young. We'll know more in 50 years or so.

It seems from everything I've learned that it's very similar in general scope and effect to the flu, except that we don't have a vaccine yet, and don't know if it will experience seasonal effects as the weather warms.

There's also no reason to believe that COVID will come out with a new release in the fall... good chance that once it's licked, it will stay licked. Unlike the flu, which mutates new strains every year in the pig/chicken/peasant ecosystem of SE asia, and then escapes to the rest of the world each fall. COVID had a known one-way vector into people from bats... it's unlikely that a flu-like cycle of back-and-forth transmission of mutated strains could occur with wild bats (it happens with pigs and chickens because of proximity to people).

Shutting down the global economy over mass hysteria will definitely be deadly. Seems far better to isolate those who need it (or want it for their own reasons) and let the rest of us make our own choices.

I think this is largely driven by a vicious feedback loop between the media and drama-prone populations... the politicians then have to react or fear for their jobs.

40,000 people die on the highways in the US every year, and similar number die from the flu. Nobody has told us not to drive.

Definitely warrants social distancing and extra hygiene. Not sure it warrants everyone staying home for 90+ days and then coming out to load your stuff into the van while they hang the foreclosure sign.

badflaps

They start shutting down small biz, 19 will be the least of the problems.

contrails12

Then how do you explain what happened in China where the state controls the media and has one party rule?