and I thought you didn’t consider any one day event to be all that important to the big picture. Hypocrite much?

 

Before the "excursion": The SoH was open to all traffic.
Today: closed to all traffic.

Before: Oil stable at around $60.
Today: Oil has increased by 50 pct and will likely go higher when markets reopen.

Before: Jet fuel prices stable.
Today: Jet fuel up by an average of 80 pct. (My usual cheap Jet A stop was $3.30/ gal, today they are at $6.35.)

Before: Elderly, ailing imam in charge of the regime, with significant popular discontent posing a real challenge to the regime's continued existence.
Today: More radical, much younger, and likely much angrier imam supposedly in charge. (In reality it's likely competing factions within the IRGC are duking it out for control, which is likely a worse situation than before.) Moreover, we've almost certainly turned public opinion even harder against us, deflecting their hatred for the regime onto the people who have been bombing them.

Before: Russia's oil revenues were $9.7 billion/ month.
Today: Russian oil revenues have doubled to $20 bn/ month.

Before: Iran had enriched uranium buried deep underground.
Today: Iran has enriched uranium buried deep underground.

Before: Iran had a large conventional military capability and a significant asymmetrical warfare capability.
Today: Iran's conventional military has been largely destroyed, but its asymmetric warfare capabilities remain powerful enough to allow them to close one of the world's most critical shipping lanes.

These are the facts. (Aside from my opinion on the stability of the regime, which is just my opinion.) Everything else are verifiable, hard facts.

If this looks like winning to you... Well then you have a different grasp on reality than I do.

 

Indeed I don't consider one day's events relevant to the big picture. You're the one who posted the S&P graph and the oil price graph, and claimed that yesterday (or whatever day it was) was clear evidence of victory. Which is hilarious.

 

Grab another brew sportsfan. Not even half time yet.

 

Also before the excursion: Iran was building alliances with Venezuela, Cuba, Brazil (proxy network), and Mexico. While simultaneously estimated to possess approximately 440 kg of uranium enriched up to 60% purity (60% enrichment is a short technical step from the 90% required for weapons-grade uranium). The IAEA claims that’s enough material for roughly 9 to 12 nuclear bombs.

 

I think the all or nothing is a global power play. Approximately 70% of China’s oil comes through the SoH. I bet China will play a massive role in getting Oran to the table and getting them to play nice

 

And that is just the short term tactical stuff.
The rest is much, much worse.(from the interests of the USA viewpoint)

The world is probably the least stable, and hence most dangerous, since the USSR collapse.

 

That's all true (although Mexico? Haven't heard that). But tell me: how have the last seven weeks changed that? Their enriched material is just buried under more rubble. How has that situation been improved by our military campaign?

 

100 percent agree. But since we have some posters pointing to a one day drop in oil prices and a new S&P high as evidence of Glorious Strategic Victory, I thought I'd focus on verifiable facts.

 

Has not much to do with any improvement. RG recovery of superpower fuel will immediately become primary target(s) of the next US/IDF air assault. Quite possibly including a taste of their own medicine.