Devils advocate myself here. If that same regime within the last 3 months killed 30,000 of their own citizens for the crime of protesting, would that make them less likely to attack themselves in the future? It's perplexing how one side of the isle totally ignored that atrocity.

Possible, but no indication that I've seen. IR isn't DPRK or Gaza... they don't have a tight enough hold on their own population to get away with pulling a stunt like that if they got caught. Too risky IMO.

Usually these kinds of things seem to blow up more on our end than anything.

You never know with squirrely admin talking heads.

A drone strike was dubbed as “righteous” by the JCS a few years back, it wasn’t so “righteous”

A Chinese embassy bombed on “accident”, etc etc etc…..

Mods, ANOTHER case of mobile platform screwing up the quote function. I did NOT accidentally delete any script in the process.

Which OS and browser?

ios, safari.

Multiple other quotes/posters in other forums I see same.

Makes trying to follow a discussion difficult after a while.

It is fair counterpoint, but impossible to entertain the hypothetical as the United States is not a Tyrannical Theocracy and if it were I'm not sure I'd be too disappointed with someone trying to remove it from power. That statement comes with my bias of course of NOT preferring tyrannical theocracies. Some people think thats the way to go.....it's just not for me.

How about the deaths in the Arab spring? Oh wait, the west is okay with those protestor deaths because they don’t want US-friendly governments in the ME to be toppled in any way.

Arab spring achieved much progress, at least short-term, including governments over-thrown. So it all went pretty well, if you're reform-minded.

We were fairly preoccupied with ensuring the safety and security of US forces and AMCITs in the region. Didn't really have the bandwidth to wade into multiple civil wars (in addition to OIF/OEF).

Now the Saudi Prince wants Trump to put boots on the ground to destroy Iran’s “hard line government.” The sheer irony of any Saudi prince to say hard line government is astounding. And Bibi saying the U.S. can’t end this war, only when Israel wants to end it, it will end.

We are being played on the world stage and it is an embarrassment.

I’m not even sure it’s a side-of-the-aisle issue. I don’t know which way the current leader of Iran leaned prior to the war. He might have had a privately held love for bourbon, rock and roll, and the F150. Or not. We know he spent months in the U.S. getting IVF for his wife. But after his wife, son, and father were turned into pink mist, and his brother and sister-in-law are only alive because they got buried under concrete - we can probably guess what his views are now. Not criticizing, but it is a factor.

The truth is likely in the middle. Allow a school to be housed abutting a major military HQ, with classes in session, during a major conflict is human shield adjacent behavior.

This is a case of seeing what you want to see. Very common these days amongst people of all stripes. In reality, the Iranian crackdown was extensively covered by media sources across the political spectrum & widely condemned by pundits and politicians on both sides of the “isle” (you mean ‘aisle’ btw). Just because Hannity or whoever tells you that the other side is in bed with the evil mullahs, that doesn’t make it true. Stop letting yourself be manipulated.

Nothing in that for us but heartaches. Let the Saud pond Prince lead his own cavalry charge. The era of Belleville boots permanently welcome under a foreign flag now hinges mainly on ROK.

You are correct to point out irony , remember that his father’s regime was one of three sovereign nations to have diplomatic relations with the Taliban pre karzai. I however think in this case it’s more of a Sunni-Shia thing.

To be fair, the school was next to a military base. The United States has hundreds of schools literally ON military installations in some places.
Is that still human shield adjacent behavior?

The strike on the school also occurred on the very first day of the surprise military action, so ascribing it as some premeditated attempt to use children as a human shield seems a bit disingenuous tbh.

There is always a deep undercurrent of Shia vs Sunni in all things over there. It's not always the most significant factor but often so (sometimes even eclipsing the usual tension with non-islamic religions).

It seems we are in the early stages of the shortages.

Yup. This is just the beginning. It’s funny watching a certain crowd on APC laughing at this and calling a pullback to normal in a month.

Same head in the sand mentality they had when covid was starting.

Sometimes accepting reality is painful. Easier to just pretend it's not happening.

I suspect this will make Covid look like a walk in the park, speaking from an airline employee perspective.

In retrospect, because of aggressive government intervention (thanks Mnuchin, Trump, and Powell), covid was much more benign for the airlines than it could have been.

This is like listening to General Turgidson

Take a broader look and see what’s happening in Asia , Australia and Europe. Some widebody guys may be getting some extended layovers when there’s no Jet A to fill up your plane. They are actually having shortages . If it continues to escalate and mines start hitting ships in the gulf, it’s anyone’s guess .

https://simpleflying.com/airline-jet-fuel-shortage-running-dry-warning-weeks/

nope, the prediction was a 9/11, Great Recession type event for the industry. A/C order Cancellations, furloughs and oil at $150.

The debate wasn’t about disruptions to gas prices that are still lower than 3 yrs ago or 15 yrs ago.

Up until the point that happens all the few here are doing is trying to find any talking point that tries to prove themselves correct. Last week it was “nobody planned for Iran to attack/restrict the SOH.” Before that it was “Trump is being run by Isreal” even though he’s been talking about Iran for decades, well before he became 45 & 47.

Perhaps it’s time for Europe and Asia to actually pony up some resources to help insure the right of passage in the strait of Hormuz and enforce maritime free access. We’ve been carrying far more than our fair share of policing the oceans since the Marines took Tripoli.

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^^^ THIS ^^^ all these countries have become accustomed to the U.S. being the police force and spending all the $$$ and resources to protect their interests… needs to stop.

Tripoli! Lindsey hears that, he’ll go ballistic.

Indoors only when under arms. At least that was the policy from the greatest branch there ever was.

I love when the hat debate comes up and they go "but in the military..."

"IN THE MILITARY I DIDN'T WEAR HATS INSIDE UNLESS ARMED" (rare exceptions for things like retirement and promotion in quasi indoor spaces like hangar)

The best part is when an ACP who never served one day tries to tell me how it was in the Navy. (24 years, 15 AD, 9 RES)

That’s the cost of being the dominant global power and having the most powerful and capable navy in the world. Do you really want China policing shipping lanes? We took on the role of policing the seas from the Royal Navy after World War II, and you can still see the remnants of that system today with the Strait of Gibraltar.

You can argue others should contribute more, and they probably should, but we don’t ensure free trade out of the kindness of our hearts. It’s the price of maintaining a system that benefits us more than anyone else. Between China, Japan, South Korea, and India, we do nearly $1 trillion in trade, it’s 100% in our interest to ensure that oil keeps flowing.

Iran has already signaled it wants oil traded through the Strait of Hormuz tied to the yuan and is effectively charging a “toll” for passage in yuan. That was a very deliberate choice, and meant to hurt the US as much as possible.

That said, we've backed ourselves into this corner with Iran. The physical and economic damage is done. We’re quickly leaving ourselves with very few options.

We do that to ensure trade is done in US dollars, it's what allows us to run $1T in deficit every year and print with impunity.

Isolationists quickly forget how powerful it is for us for the world be doing business in USD. China would LOVE for the global reserve currency to be Yuan.

DOD budget for 2026 is how much?

$852.45 billion?
and supplementals will likely take it well over a trillion since Iran has burned up about $200 billion in ordnance.

Time for THE REST OF THE WORLD that ALSO benefits from world oceanic trade to pony up.

Too many people are too lazy to have anything other than one dimensional, ultra simplistic thoughts on what is a complex and nuanced issue. Throw CINC into that bucket as he stated yesterday that the US doesn’t “need” the straight of Hormuz. While we technically produce a lot of our own energy & get most of the rest from the western hemisphere, the energy market is global. That means energy independence doesn’t really matter if you allow something like the Hormuz closure. 20 percent less oil on the market (and a huge chunk of global natural gas production) is going to have an impact on gas, diesel, and jet fuel prices at home no matter how much you “drill baby drill”. Not only that, but with 1/3 of production infrastructure in the gulf having been destroyed, this is going to be a long term problem, even if the straights are open tomorrow.

All of that is really difficult to condense into a catchy soundbite though, so we end up with a bunch of Americans who are too lazy to read anything thinking that it’ll all get worked out in a couple weeks. Markets are not factoring real world events folks. We’re in for a tough next few years IMO. Hope I’m wrong.

So, should I be buying oil futures on the CME? The Mar 27 CL contract (CLH27) can be had for $74. Back up the dump truck....it's like taking candy from a baby especially if this is only gonna get worse and take years to recover. What fools those commodity traders are!

There are a whole lot of analysts who are scratching their heads right now at the way markets are reacting. I claim no expertise in commodities, but I imagine things will change rather quickly when reality sets in. Again, sincerely hope I’m wrong.

Most people aren't aware that the lack of stability in the ME (almost all Iran induced in 2026) is already baked into big-picture oil pricing and has been for decades.

If some folks believe (I have serious reservations) that this event will be over and stability will prevail within a relatively short time frame, that would tend to drive oil prices down. Ultimately lower than historical norms.

There are some fringe benefits to this conflict, if it can pulled off successfully.

Well, you doom and gloom guys have a chance to make a real killing if you are right:


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My hunch is governments are moving the market, keeping it calm, similar to what happened during covid.

6 months seems pretty optimistic. Given the hits that energy infrastructure has taken I'd be shocked if that were the case. I only see this going one if three general ways.

1. The US escalate, full land invasion, it costs us a couple trillion but oil prices come back down.
2. Status quo stalemate of Iran getting bombed, and Iran keeping up enough pressure to keep the US and it's allies from receiving oil, oil stays high for a long period of time, still costs us a trillion in rearmament costs.
3. Trump walks back almost all of his demands and is forced to be a security guarantor that Israel won't bomb them again.

All are bad. The scariest thing in all of this is having just spent so much of our ammunition there leaves Taiwan open to an invasion by China. Oil prices stay high, the West loses it's semiconductor manufacturer, and the US loses it's place as the dominant player in the world.

I'm really hoping I'm wrong, I'm far from immune from that, only a few people truly know what's going on behind closed doors here, but from where I'm sitting this looks like the biggest blunder in US foreign policy possibly in the countries history. I know, I know, I have TDS, but I just don't see another outcome. I would be happy to be pointed to a way in which this clears up better though.

I’m not going to debate any of this with you, I’m just stating the facts today:

The futures markets are discounting very high future oil costs and the experts are discounting very high future oil costs, if you think they are wrong you can certainly bid against them and if you ARE right, you can make a killing on the crude oil futures exchange.

Of course if you are wrong, like Randolph and Mortimer, you are going to lose big.

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But then talk is cheap, actually putting your money where your doom and gloom is might cost you a bundle. But if you are smarter than current traders and advisors, go for it.