Wasn't Boeing ****ing and moaning while losing their ass on the KC46 because it was one of, if not their first, first ventures with an FFP contract? Is the government no longer pursuing FFP contracts?

Yes there was a lot of Llama Drama :rolleyes:

.gov and DoD use FFP extensively, but typically for things which are very quantifiable... ie a truckload of potatoes.

FFP doesn't work well at all for big military systems, because in addition to complexity those tend to spiral development as they take years, and many things change over years... adversaries, technology, geopolitics.

The challenge with FFP for big weapon systems is that the buyer has to detail *very* precisely every requirement and specification. If you miss something (you will) or requirements change (they will) then you have to negotiate change orders. Both sides tend to dig in to opposite corners on that.

Cost Plus allows for flexibility and spiral development, but of course it's also well suited for FW&A.

I'd hazard that a tanker like KC-46 was in the grey area for suitability for FFP. One one hand it's not an offensive combat system with bleeding-edge performance... basically a flying gas station. But OTH, it does operate in a tactical environment, with important systems and capes for that.

A good example is the Navy P-8 and C-40. P-8 was Cost Plus, because it's an offensive combat system. C-40 was FFP because it's a non-tactical logistics transport. Both are based on the 737.

I think you are underestimating the importance of the decline of engineering expertise and can-do know how at some of the major defense contractors - like Boeing. For many years they avoided hiring employees for short term (or at least non guaranteed long term) projects by subcontracting engineering out to temps while having their own long term employees supervise. But when those contractors finished their personnel took the experience they had gained on the job with them and when the long term employees retired themselves a lot of the knowledge left with them. Yeah, they could hire new engineers, but there was a dearth of knowledgeable middle managers to bring them along. To an extent that was even the case with the machinists.

For historical comparison, the C-97 entered service in 1947. The tanker derivative, the KC-97, became operational only three years later. The 767 was FAA certified in 1982 and the contract was awarded in 2011 for 18 aircraft to be delivered by 2017. The first kc-46 wasn’t accepted (still with half a dozen deficiencies to be corrected later) until 2019. Eight years to convert an aircraft they had been manufacturing with FAA approval for 29 years seems a little excessive.

From Initial contract (1954) to delivery of the first KC-135s was only three years, an aircraft that had previously existed only as the dash 80 prototype.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AaA7kPfC5Hk

But to me you seem much too accepting of the disaster that is the military procurement system. If it isn’t fixed, we will forever be 20 years behind where we could be in our military equipment technologically and paying twice as much as we ought to be paying.

It can't ever be "fixed". It's been that way since the dawn of civilization. Our system is quite a bit more functional than say Russia's, or China's for that matter. Better than most (but not all) of our allies too.

The nature of the mil industrial complex is that it requires constant vigilance and regular tuneups.

In the case of boeing specifically, it got so bad (just on the defense side) that it became common public knowledge and the pendulum had to swing. It didn't help them that they had very high visibility problems at the commercial and space units as well.

Well the wave was cresting and things were dying down and Trump had to open up his mouth again.

How so? If you ask me, any reasonable person could see this was far from over. I expect action this weekend if I was a betting man.

I think it's fairly obvious that this administration expected Iran to crumble entirely under the current assault, and has been improvising ever since it was realized that Iran isn't Venezuela. That isn't a partisan comment, it's just an assessment of the fact that the constantly-changing rationales and statements from various admin officials that continually contradict each other, make it clear that while we may have had a target list and while we may have destroyed much of what was on that list, there was very little contingency planning or forecasting around what might happen if we didn't achieve swift victory.

Despite everything, Iran still retains the current regime. It retains the ability to close the SoH, and to strike our allies in the Gulf, not to mention our own bases in the region. If this is "winning," I'd hate to see what losing looks like.

Probably a successful nuclear test.

Probably not the way you think.

It would be IL conducting a successful nuclear test on multiple IR nuclear facilities.

There is always a deep geopolitical undercurrent to this problem set that amounts to giving IL enough leash and help with conventional measures to dissuade them from the solving the problem their own way. That undercurrent is largely invisible.

Remember that IL ends if Tel Aviv goes away... they aren't taking any chances.

Could be, although it is equally likely that it would have happened with a successful test by Iran. I'm not saying with a specific time table. It would happen eventually without intervention.

Oil is going up again.
The black Swan is here.

Sorry, we're only allowed to panic when it starts getting close to 150

Give it till the end of the month.

The price of oil is almost immaterial at this point, it's the crack spread that is the big news. Jet A is almost at $5 here in the US.

Lufthansa is parking jets

https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/en...162028880.html

We're above the level we were in 2022 with far more capacity in the system. The disruption exceeds the 1973 and 1979 energy crisis combined.

Who should I listen to? Armchair quarterbacks on APC that view things with their own political bias, or people who actually put up their own money. For every futures contract, there is a buyer and a seller that determines the price. IOW.... the fair value of whether they think they will make money or lose money.

Currently the futures contract for DEC is $72/barrel. That may or may not prove to be true 7 months from now..... but as of now, that's what I would consider to be a more logical input/thought as opposed to the politically biased APC opinionated "rants"

But you said the end of last month. Are you worried about the oil or the school girls? Were you worried about the 34,000 gunned down protesters?

Absolutely. These people are putting their money where their mouths are. If you really think you are smarter than them, bid against them.

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🙄🙄🙄

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He/she trolls on every single post.

You people said I was trolling the weeks ago when I said it was going to got 120 and that this war wouldn't be resolved before April. Yet here we are.

E model shot down near SOH. CSAR looking for pilot/wso. Buckle up

I don't have a good feeling about this one. So many unforced errors

In ‘69, the year Neil & Buzzy hopped across the lunar wasteland, the US lost 380 aircraft, 363 crews, 2 booked at the Hilton. Every soldier/sailor means something to someone. Can only hope & pray the E pair are posted recovered, later today.

Are you sure? There’s nothing about it on Fox News. Might be a false flag by the liberal media.

Hopefully the Sec of Defense’s pledge of “no quarter, no mercy for our enemies” isn’t the direction this war is going. Especially since it seems that ground troops will soon be deployed.

No it's confirmed.

Maybe IR actually got one this time. It's all been blue on blue so far.

Similar to futures markets, unknown. I’m definitely a bombs no boots bru but so what? Combat ops are exhausting and fatigue alone adds significant risk. At this point, all principals know, even with a campaign pause, our troubles on the 7 seas are far from over.

According to multiple sources one crew member has been rescued. Still searching for other...

Yeah, I think Tge Onion is covering it.

This right here is why we're so irreconcilably divided. If it's not in our preferred echo chamber, it didn't happen. How can we possibly succeed as a country when we can't even agree on what's real and what isn't?

I’m 90% sure he was being facetious.

LOL I sure hope so. Because I had almost EXACTLY the same conversation yesterday with an unnamed UAL IAH CA and he was most definitely not being facetious. My apologies to the original poster though, for assuming!

Well, considering it has been on Fox News all morning, I would say so.

CNN was reporting it a hour before Fox, at least. Fox said they wanted to confirm it wasn’t just another false Iranian State Media report before reporting it.

Thankfully, one of the crew was rescued safely. Unknown whether it’s the Pilot or WSO, nor what the status of the other crewmember is.

Mad props to the Hurc and Jolly’s for going feet dry in daytime. “That others may live”.

Yep, daylight rescue in Iran? Definitely DFC worthy.

This is why so many of us say words matter. When senior leadership says something, it resonates. From calling people who don't agree with you on politics "The enemy" to threatening nations with "No quarter". You cannot be in a position of leadership and act the way people in power are acting. People will listen to the message and respond to it. Many might simply criticize it, others may take physical action.

Agreed. Bare minimum Silver Star with a V device.

Why else would senior military leadership be getting fired if the war isn't heading that direction? Do you think that they got fired because they were chomping at the bit to get into a ground war in Iran or because they were pointing out that we'd be sending our young men into a meat grinder and suffer a humiliating defeat? Typically, high ranking military leaders don't get fired for the former...

The generals that were recently fired aren’t in anyone’s operational chain of command.

The DoW is cleaning house of dissenters, the fact that they aren't in the operational chain of command is gee-whiz info at best.

Dissent within military leadership clearly will not be tolerated moving forward.

"Democratic Senator Chris Murphy, who is a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, offered his view on why he believes US generals are being dismissed by Hegseth.

“It’s likely that experienced generals are telling Hegseth his Iran war plans are unworkable, disastrous, and deadly,” Murphy said in a Friday post on X.

“Hegseth is firing a ton of experienced generals right now,” he added."

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/...-of-dismissals