Economic Impacts of Iran War
04-09-2026 | 01:34 PM
#741
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Apr 2011
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04-09-2026 | 02:33 PM
#742
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Apr 2011
Posts: 3,488
Likes: 137
What we may have here friends, is the Caine Mutiny bridge in the storm scene. Only ours is a very real time drama and there’s no Van Johnson around to make the tough divert call. Much less make it stick.
https://youtu.be/fWYs-bFK9_s?si=xLGoUVpxPOECUVMx
https://youtu.be/fWYs-bFK9_s?si=xLGoUVpxPOECUVMx
04-09-2026 | 04:16 PM
#744
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Joined: Oct 2023
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I’m thinking the timing of this pseudo ceasefire correlates pretty well with the time necessary to get the remaining Marine Expeditionary Unit and the 82nd airborne into position. I think Iran is about to lose possession of a number of islands - perhaps permanently. The big loser? China. They buy the vast majority of Iran’s oil - as much as 1.4 million barrels a day prior to the war.
04-09-2026 | 09:07 PM
#745
Perennial Reserve
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 14,236
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As repeated many times here and elsewhere; oil is a global commodity. You take a big chunk out of circulation, we all pay more. Short of the U.S. banning oil exports & nationalizing our own industry to include recalibrating our refineries or building new ones to use our own oil (not happening anytime soon), taking that oil off market will hurt everyone. The reason we de-sanctioned Iranian and Russian oil in the middle of a war was to put downward pressure on prices that were quickly becoming untenable. As usual, these issues are far more complex than an evening news sound bite or even a 3hr podcast hosted by a UFC fighter can convey.
Not sure we’d have liked the result though.
“Millions for defense, not one cent for tribute.”
― Thomas Jefferson
04-10-2026 | 04:08 AM
#746
Airplanes
Joined: May 2022
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Oh, absolutely. And it would have been far easier to just look the other way in WWI and just concentrate on Japan in WWII and let the UK and the USSR fight it out with Nazi Germany and Italy. The US sustained a lot of casualties and civilian rationing that lasted until 1946 ( https://www.nationalww2museum.org/wa...ng-during-wwii) and incurred a lot of debt that we could have avoided had we let the rest of the world just beat itself to death protected by our two big moats to East and west.
Not sure we’d have liked the result though.
Not sure we’d have liked the result though.
04-10-2026 | 07:07 AM
#747
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Joined: Aug 2022
Posts: 865
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I forget, how much did we give Ukraine?
How has the policies against Iran worked from ‘78 to 2/26?
Life was really good, gas was low… things were humming along nicely. It would seem
anyone with a modicum of common sense can conclude that to risk losing that, there was most likely a threat that a President finally had the balls to address rather than saying “Don’t”.
I’ve got between 51 and 111 days for oil to
retreat to $70, the stock market to gain about 1k, no furloughs to happen and no
a/c delivery changes. I like my chances.
I said several pages back oil would retreat 20-30% almost immediately when a deal
was reached. It retreated 17% on nothing more than a ceasefire announcement. Where are my oil” to the moon” chicken littles at?
Last edited by vaksedtothemax; 04-10-2026 at 07:22 AM.
04-10-2026 | 07:28 AM
#748
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 4,171
Likes: 150
I forget, how much did we give Ukraine?
How has the policies against Iran worked from ‘78 to 2/26?
Life was really good, gas was low… things were humming along nicely. It would seem
anyone with a modicum of common sense can conclude that to risk losing that, there was most likely a threat that a President finally had the balls to address rather than saying “Don’t”.
I’ve got between 51 and 111 days for oil to
retreat to $70, the stock market to gain about 1k, no furloughs to happen and no
a/c delivery changes. I like my chances.
I said several pages back oil would retreat 20-30% almost immediately when a deal
was reached. It retreated 17% on nothing more than a ceasefire announcement. Where are my oil” to the moon” chicken littles at?
How has the policies against Iran worked from ‘78 to 2/26?
Life was really good, gas was low… things were humming along nicely. It would seem
anyone with a modicum of common sense can conclude that to risk losing that, there was most likely a threat that a President finally had the balls to address rather than saying “Don’t”.
I’ve got between 51 and 111 days for oil to
retreat to $70, the stock market to gain about 1k, no furloughs to happen and no
a/c delivery changes. I like my chances.
I said several pages back oil would retreat 20-30% almost immediately when a deal
was reached. It retreated 17% on nothing more than a ceasefire announcement. Where are my oil” to the moon” chicken littles at?
04-10-2026 | 08:31 AM
#749
Line Holder
Joined: Oct 2023
Posts: 491
Likes: 289
About $127 billion over the four years the war has gone on. Was a good investment in promoting peace and freedom in the world as far as I’m concerned. Of course, that’s before we de-sanctioned Russian oil & tossed their war machine a lifeline. Yep. 5D chess. 😐
Oh, and in case you were curious, estimates range between $20 and $30 billion for what’s been spent in the first MONTH of the Iran war. Of course, that doesn’t consider intangibles like American lives lost or forever changed by wounds suffered in the conflict, the impossibility of replacing out of production aircraft like F-15Es, KC-135s, and E-3s, the fact that we have far outpaced precision ordinance production with the massive amount we have expended, or the fact that we have taught Iran that our bases are vulnerable to $25,000 drones and that they can shut down the straight whenever they like. Then we can talk about the inevitable costs of keeping a force in the region indefinitely to ensure the peace once the dust settles.
Feel free to keep doing you (I have little doubt you will), but I very much prefer the approach where we support a nascent democracy and gut an adversary’s ability to threaten its neighbors with zero direct involvement or lives at risk vs. the one where we Leroy Jenkins our way into an ill conceived and poorly planned operation that leaves American servicemen dead and wounded, depletes our military’s resources exponentially, blows up the world economy, and leaves our enemies in a better strategic position than when we started.
But, hey, that’s just me.
Oh, and in case you were curious, estimates range between $20 and $30 billion for what’s been spent in the first MONTH of the Iran war. Of course, that doesn’t consider intangibles like American lives lost or forever changed by wounds suffered in the conflict, the impossibility of replacing out of production aircraft like F-15Es, KC-135s, and E-3s, the fact that we have far outpaced precision ordinance production with the massive amount we have expended, or the fact that we have taught Iran that our bases are vulnerable to $25,000 drones and that they can shut down the straight whenever they like. Then we can talk about the inevitable costs of keeping a force in the region indefinitely to ensure the peace once the dust settles.
Feel free to keep doing you (I have little doubt you will), but I very much prefer the approach where we support a nascent democracy and gut an adversary’s ability to threaten its neighbors with zero direct involvement or lives at risk vs. the one where we Leroy Jenkins our way into an ill conceived and poorly planned operation that leaves American servicemen dead and wounded, depletes our military’s resources exponentially, blows up the world economy, and leaves our enemies in a better strategic position than when we started.
But, hey, that’s just me.
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