Sorry, the "spigot actually (didn't) shut".

1973–74 Shock: Arab oil producers embargoed the US, with production cuts amounting to about 7% of global oil consumption. Oil prices quadrupled in some markets.

1979–80 Shock: The Iranian Revolution led to a decrease of nearly 4.8 million barrels per day, roughly 7% of world production at the time.

 

Ok. Spigot being a euphemism.

US ops haven't destroyed any energy infrastructure. If you're referring to Kharg Island; only military targets were hit.

As stated earlier, global shortages are in the 5-7 billion barrels/day ballpark. That's in-line with the 70s embargo numbers and current Brent is at $103. So similar daily deficit to the embargo days (with more energy produced today then before so that 7% is even lower) and only $3 per barrel more than 2022; again, this is a short term shock, not some mass global catastrophe that you stated from the IEA's panicked message of "in the history of the global oil market."

 

Really? When and how will it end?

 

https://a.co/d/0hYgF5HN

I like that they’re oversized. Good solution for a variety of products.

 

Its been less than 2 months so its very much in the short/near term arena.

How will this end? No idea.

 

You can't be serious in your statement about energy infrastructure.

Also, it's irrelevant if US infrastructure is hit or not. Oil is a global commodity, not a local one.

 

I don’t think oil prices care if the bombs that destroyed a large chunk of middle eastern petroleum infrastructure cares were American, Israeli or Iranian. The fact is if Trump and Israel didn’t start this very poorly thought out, and even more poorly executed war then the oil infrastructure would be perfectly fine and humming along at the $70 per barrel status quo. But such is the price of “winning”.

 

I think you’re missing a minor detail with the infrastructure. The Iranians, with the missiles and drones we completely wiped out, have damaged or destroyed significant infrastructure in Gulf states.

https://www.insurancejournal.com/new...news%20agency.

…and now we’re blockading the Iranian blockade after we lifted sanctions on Iranian oil to help keep prices down. The brilliance of this 4D chess game is beyond comprehension.

 

Head, meet sand. Conservative estimates say 30-40% of Persian Gulf infrastructure has been damaged or destroyed. Gulf states are being very cagey about publicizing damage, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the percentage is actually higher. 20% is an absolutely huge shock to the system and that’s not even accounting for things like the specific kerosene needed to make ice resistant Jet A or natural gas, which are being squeezed even tighter. The fact that a barrel of oil hasn’t absolutely skyrocketed in price yet is meaningless if your airline can’t put fuel in the tanks at any price.

 

Iran lashing out and damaging refineries to an industry they also need was an impotent, childish lash out because they have no leverage over the Persian Gulf now. US and IDF have air superiority, Iranian naval presence is almost null, as much as AP, CNN, MSNBC want the mines to be a factor, and the drones are hap- hazard, and a pin prick tactically speaking.

Poorly executed? 5,000 targets prosecuted, over 125 aircraft destroyed, govt/mil communications severely degraded, zero airlift/support capacity, Naval and Ground force operations nil, not to mention Ayatollah eliminated and their nuclear ambitions also severely degraded.

Overall Iran finally put in its place and will continue to be. Stress on global oil and economies? Yes. Meltdown and impending doom coming due today regional conflict because less than 20% of the world's crude is being affected? Nope.

Direct action is messy, diplomacy is messy. It hasn't been 2 months. I love how the media and so many people are losing and asking why hasn't everything been solved already!? This operation hasn't been perfect?! Outrageous! The US is attacking a regime that murders 40K of its own people and sponsors terror proxies. Outrageous!