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Old 12-11-2007 | 04:57 AM
  #21  
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Originally Posted by FlyByCable
I'll take you word for the economics. When the larger RJs show up, they will be flow by the regionals.

You probably are right, because I for one wont fly a plane for the low pay. I can and will find something else to do!
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Old 12-11-2007 | 06:02 AM
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Originally Posted by crewdawg52
... I for one wont fly a plane for the low pay. I can and will find something else to do!
Well, there's always the 9-to-5 office job...

http://www.glumbert.com/media/baddayoffice
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Old 12-11-2007 | 07:04 AM
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Originally Posted by crewdawg52
You probably are right, because I for one wont fly a plane for the low pay. I can and will find something else to do!
Just wondering what you made when you started flying with whatever carrier you're flying for. (That is if you are flying).
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Old 12-11-2007 | 07:58 AM
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Originally Posted by FlyByCable
Not flame. The regionals have been the only sector of the airlines to show any substantial growth and with the continued outsourcing of domestic flying they would provide someone with a secure flying career since the regionals aren't going to go away and they will get bigger jets.
UH..... no. Consider this before you bank on making a career at a regional.

The answer to this is a somewhat lengthy macro economic discussion but here goes. After the major airline scope clauses survived 9/11 and all the bankruptcies the role and therefore size of the regional sector was more than likely forever fixed to an upper gage or seat level. (roughly 70 seats) If the scope clauses were ever to be circumvented it would have been then. Since the only way to increase aggregate passenger count of the National Airspace System is to increase seat count on existing flight frequency, (number of flights the system can handle is basically fixed and all the fancy free flight and GPS direct in the world can't get around the fact that at some point we all have to get in a line three miles behind each other a land on a fixed number of runways) the utility of the RJ will continue to wain as passenger demand increases. (not to mention the horrendous seat mile efficiency made worst by $100 oil) This is evidenced by the fact that no one has built a 50 seater in almost 3 years and the feds are considering minimum seat counts for aircraft arriving in the most congested locales. The demand is now for a 100 seat jet, a segment which is largely owned by major airline pilots. These facts coupled with the fee for departure, race to the bottom scenario means that unless regionals can find something else to do with their aircraft, they will be relegated to ruthlessly compete for a larger piece of an ever-shrinking pie. My guess is this will result in the sector returning to its mid 90's level with a few large players doing the lift. Someone has to fly to Valdosta, GA, the question is: who will it be in 5-10 years?

Of course one more aerial visit by islamic psychotics would delay all this a decade or so.
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Old 12-11-2007 | 08:14 AM
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Originally Posted by FlyByCable
I'll take you word for the economics. When the larger RJs show up, they will be flow by the regionals.
Not for Delta they won't. Are you just ignoring scope clauses or do you just not know what your talking about?
CAL: 50 seats
DAL: very limited number of 76 seats
NWA: not sure with their Compass arrangement, NWA guy let us know
AMR: limited number of 70 seats, and APA wants it all on their list, yes!!!

You get my point, if these contracts where going to be defeated it would have been during the bankruptcies. Major pilots would have to be suicidal to allow anymore scope relief. Of course sometimes we are our own worst enemy.

Having flown for two of the biggest regionals and one major I can't imagine why you would voluntarily advocate making your career at a regional. Maybe if you were super senior and in the training dept. or something, or had some sweet home every night setup, but other than that I just don't get it.
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Old 12-11-2007 | 10:24 AM
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Originally Posted by Deez340
Not for Delta they won't. Are you just ignoring scope clauses or do you just not know what your talking about?
CAL: 50 seats
DAL: very limited number of 76 seats
NWA: not sure with their Compass arrangement, NWA guy let us know
AMR: limited number of 70 seats, and APA wants it all on their list, yes!!!
I know they are limited to 76 seaters. I know there is a cap on the amount they can. But, I forgot the specifics. We don't even like the sight of them....
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Old 12-11-2007 | 02:15 PM
  #27  
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Originally Posted by FlyByCable
I'll take you word for the economics. When the larger RJs show up, they will be flow by the regionals.

Judging by your vast experience in the industry, and the crystal ball you're holding I would definitely make my career choices based on your opinion..

In regards to the original post, go where you want to, whatever YOU feel is BEST for YOU. You answer to yourself and your family, not people on forums. Remember that.
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Old 12-11-2007 | 05:50 PM
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Originally Posted by iaflyer
I live in the Detroit area, so NWA would of been an obvious choice for me. I was not in your shoes - I didn't have an offer from NWA, but I believe that I had a decent chance of obtaining an interview (many internal recs and an excellent resume) from NWA. I chose not to pursue Northwest - I will end up at Delta (class date next month) but here's what I was worried about with Northwest:

* First year pay is low - really low. Their payscale is low as well, and I would of always made more money in career earnings at my current job than NWA. It is low enough that it would of required a significent shift in my family's lifestyle for probably 5+ years - I want to enjoy life, not wait for every year's pay raise.

* I believe that the DC-9s are going to be retired and basically replaced by regional flying - Mesaba, Pinnacle and Compass - eventually. It may not be this 2008, but all signs indicate it will happen. That means career stagnation.

* Northwest's customer service is weak and the brand is not good. I can't see people choosing NWA when they have a choice, so I think this will hurt them when LCCs like Jetblue come into their markets.

* Age 65 rule will impact upgrades a lot at NWA when it happens, while it will have a much lesser effect at Delta. I can't see sitting at those FO payrates at NWA five years more than the FOs do now.

* It now appears that their cargo business is weak. That's been generating profits for a while. If Northwest isn't smart enough to put money into their cargo fleet, then I shudder to think that the future holds for everything else.

In the end, I think that Northwest will be bought by someone who wants their Asia routes. I think a Delta-NWA merger is a serious possibility, but American also might like their Asia routes. It's a gamble going to Delta, but I really won't know if I made a good choice until I retire.
First of all, congratulations on your job with Delta. I agree with pretty much everything you said except for the retirement part. If age 65 goes through, I believe Delta new-hires will be affected more than NWA new-hires. Delta has the youngest pilot group in the country. They have very very few retirements (just around 5%) for the next 5 years. If age 65 goes through, Delta will have 5% + medical outs retiring in 10 years. NWA has 50%+ retirements in 10 years. Even if age 65 goes through most are rumored to leave with their pensions at 60 (NWA still have frozen pensions unlike DAL---many will take it and bail). NWA will most likely see 3 year upgrades on the DC-9.

However, DAL FOs make pretty decent money---especially on wide-bodies---you don't have to be in a hurry to upgrade to make livable wages!

Other than the retirement front, it looks like DAL has NWA beat...but then again it all depends from person to person. Thanks for the very informative posts.
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Old 12-11-2007 | 09:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Deez340
NWA: not sure with their Compass arrangement, NWA guy let us know
The NWA pilot contract allows NWA to operate up to 90 jets in the 51-76 seat category. 36 of these are CRJ900s at Mesaba, which ostensibly replace the 36 RJ85s they retired a few years back. As things stand now Compass will get 36 E175s. That leaves 18 additional airframes which I assume would either be CR9s at XJ or E175s at CP.

I don't think NWA pilots will give up any more scope; I think they realize that even 90 is too many and potentially represents a partial outsourcing of the DC9 fleet. I'd like to see them get the 76 seat flying back into mainline with the next contract but that's not until 2011 and a lot can happen in the meantime. For starters, if NWA ends up getting E195s at mainline it may make economic sense to bring the E175s onto the same certificate.
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Old 12-12-2007 | 05:24 AM
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I'll agree with BFS about the people at DAL -- very classy. Going to work with interesting and motivated people over a long career carries a lot of weight in my book. This is not to say that NWA folks are uninteresting and unmotivated; I have little personal experience with NWA. Just observing the DAL culture (as a poolie).
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