In anticipation of age 65 passing I've been asking the over-55-year-old captains I've been flying with what their intentions are. I've flown with maybe 15 or so over the last six months. While purely unscientific, almost all have expressed no intention of staying in the job until 65. Most indicated they would either still retire at 60, or by 62 1/2, and that it depended on the GAT rate and the effects on their retirement. Several stated they still fully plan to retire before 60. I've flown with only two that indicated they intended to try to stay until 65.

I get the sense that some, maybe roughly half, will initially stay. They will find it hard to give up the paycheck. But I think, based on my conversations, that there's a psychological point that'll be crossed at 60. They've looked forward to 60 with whatever emotions for many years as "the goal". Once over it, knowing they can retire, the first time, or second time, or perhaps the third time they get hung up in a Northeast storm (like this weekend), miss a commute home, or whatever else bugs them about the job, they'll put in their papers. They'll compare their paycheck to what they would receive in retirement and decide the additional money isn't worth it. I also wonder how many additional medical outs there will be.

I'm not convinced that hiring will slow all that much and I don't think a large amount of pilots, perhaps not more than 1 in 5, will continue all the way to 65.

Have anyone else talked directly with these guys and gotten a sense of their desire to stay or their intentions?

 

Since most retirement pensions are now toast, the comparison is Zero vs paycheck.


Had most of the pension obligations survived the downturn, 65 would not be such a big issue.

 

I can tell you that over this last year, we at FedEx have had 2/3 of our crewmembers that should have retired stick around (gone to the S/O seat) just so they could get back to a window seat. This percentage came directly from our upper management.
Our company does hire a disproportionate number of retired military guys, and quite a few of those that are sticking around may be from that group (trying to get a higher percentage of A fund retirement money since they hire on around age 44-46), but I can see the same percentage of folks sticking around at the carriers that have bled their retirements in bankruptcy court.
It all bodes poorly for the hiring future at most of the Majors...

 

Yea it's about a 50-50 mix and I don't really believe that the majority who say they plan to leave will do it right at 60 either.

I think the vast majority will stick around past 60 for some length of time.

 

At what age does one have to start drawing SS, IRA, 401K money? Is that 62 or 65? That will have an effect as the tax rate on your deferred tax plans can make a huge impact on post retirement earnings.

 

Most I have flown with intend to fly past 60. I think only one out of the last 10 folks I have flown with said he was definitely going at 60 if not sooner.

 

SS: I don't believe you have to draw SS. Early SS (70% of full benefit) can be received to at 62. Full SS for someone that is 60 today is at 66. I am not eligable for full SS until 67. http://www.socialsecurity.gov/retire2/agereduction.htm

I think IRA's and 401k's are treated the same. You must wait until 59.5 to start drawing it out without penalty. You will be penalized (I believe 50%) if you don't start drawing it 70.5.
http://www.smartmoney.com/retirement...ory=supertable

 

for IRAs and 401ks you can draw without penalty at 59 1/2 and have to start making minimum withdrawls by 70 1/2 or you get penalized.

SS i believe you have to wait till 62 at a minimum.

never saw SWACapt's post...

 

Most of the geezers (LOL!) at UPS told me they would stick around. We had all this talk during negotiations about a mass exodus of Flight Engineers over 60 after the contract was signed and it never happened. I think A TON of people will stick around. I just hope the over 60 FEs at UPS don't get to bump junior people out of the left seat. If the company lets them do that, I hope there is a mutiny. I know I will have a heart attack. I can deal with them bidding left seat again if there is a vacancy (in ANC....LOL!) but there is no way they should be able to just bump people although some think they should.

 

I think it really depends on what airline you work at. A lot of pilots (50+) who work at airlines where defined benefit plans have been eliminated are likely to stay until 65, so they are able to save some money for retirement. Beyond that many wouldn't be able to afford the health insurance as easily as they would have with their planned benefits they'd get at age 60. That's just my guess and $.02.