I'll take a stab at this, too. I'll try not to be biased.

First AA, is currently the largest airline in the world, with the largest pilot group by far. When all pilots are recalled, nearly 12,000 pilots will be on the seniority list. A very YOUNG list, to boot.

Now, in the immediate future, many possibilities could affect AA and hiring. But, I'll try to summarize by saying this: almost every scenario in AA's future is a BAD one if you're at the bottom of a 12,000-pilot list.

For instance: AA hires in 2010, a nice 10 a month for awhile. If the economy goes into recession, which many say it will, expect either furloughs or hiring freeze. What about oil prices? $100/barrel oil is not going to help, and more cost-cutting will insue. What about terrorist attacks? AA will always be an Al-Qaeda target, and another 9-11 style attack could seriously hurt AA and other airlines in the US. What if AA merges/acquires another airline, big or small? If you're at the bottom as a junior F/O, only BAD things can happen to you. Finally, no upgrade for DECADES. AA's list is a young one, and with age 65, expect 10-12 years to RSV Captain on MD80s.

Seriously, almost all scenarios in AA's future for a junior, new-hire pilot are bad. Other carriers have a brighter future, and MUCH quicker upgrades (See CAL, SWA, Delta, and others).

And lastly, one lone good scenario could occur. AA hasn't grown since 2001. No growth means no advancement. If AA sits out the latest round of merger-mania, and acquires/buys assets/routes/slots but no employees, there may actually be a chance to advance and have a good career at AA. But, overall, the odds are not in your favor of anything good happening at AA anytime soon.

 

Thank you Flifast for your kind words in the way of reaching American. To all of you I came here asking two questions first how many furloughs left and when might AA be hiring? As having been part of the AA family for many years now I know what is going on there and the isues that exist, I follow it every day. So I understand the upside and downside of AA being my first choice, while I appreciate some of you urging me to check out other places which I have, what I do not appreciate it is the criticism of my choice to want to go there. While you are entitled to your opinion you are not entitled to criticize someone's dream. I am sure none of you would appreciate it if I had criticized you wish to go to SWA, DAL, CAL, etc. Each individual has their wish and desire because that airline suits there lifestyle. While I am not singling any one person out, just remember in the future if you want your questions answered respectfully then do the same in return.

 

A little touchy there sdpilot. This industry takes a tough skin because of all the confrontational nature involved. If AA is you end all/be all, then realize the VERY well observed downfalls. You only have one obligation: QOL for you and your family. Plenty of options out there. My advice would be to pursue them and rank them in order of what they can offer YOU. All the legacies, AA included, will do what is best for them in their own eyes, even if that means picking someone else instead of you. Therefore, you do what is best for you when changing jobs.

Cliff: You know a guy unhappy flying for UPS? Tell ya what. I have a pretty sweet flying gig I'll trade with him. Pay over the career is a little more than half what he will make, but QOL rocks. I admit it, I'll trade some QOL for almost double the money. Also consider it is UPS. Half of their career earnings is still almost all of the career earnings of a legacy guy because of their very sweet FO pay.

 

Your goal is admirable, but if you know what's going on there and the issues that exist, why are you here asking questions? Seems to me you'd be up on things over there............. I think what many here are telling you to do (having been there and done that) is to leave your options open. If you are only willing to fly for one carrier and that carrier never hires again or merges into someone else, you're bound to be disappointed. I think that's what everyone is trying to tell you. You gotta grow thick skin on this board or they'll eat you up.

 

My skin is fine thank you all I am saying is that people should not criticize people for where they want to go. EWRbased pilot I am assuming you work for CAL, would you have appreciated had I said CAL stinks why would you go there, I would think not. I have never worked there so how would I know if its good or bad. Like someone said its what works best for you and your family. Secondly, my father retired four years ago and is enjoying it so his info may not be as up to date as a pilot who works there now, can't believe everything you read you know.

 

Off the thread, but in terms of pref bidding....

When we had it at TWA it was hands-down great. My QOL improved, in my opinion because of it. But if you remember we, the pilots, administered it.

Now, with that said, ask around the industry about pref bidding at other airlines and it is loathed as a gift from Satan. I ask these other pilots if they run it or if the company has their hand in it, and it sounds like to me (correct me if I'm wrong) that the company does have a hand in it.

Lastly, and in a weak attempt to tie this into "American Airlines Hiring"; if pref bidding is adopted at AA it will probably make the pilot group more efficient which for me as a furloughed pilot {albeit selfish} is not good news.

We all remember the letter written by former APA MEC Ralph Hunter saying that he wants to work with the company to make it a better company, a more efficient company so that the furloughees will come back to a better company. This is a catch-22, by making American more efficient there will be less need for recalls, so furloughees will spend more time on the street, not contributing towards retirement, no travel passes (I think most other airlines gave their furloughees unlimited travel passes), no health benefits, etc.etc.

So to answer sdpilot75, pref bidding could (in my opinion) delay recalls and hiring.

Just my two cents worth,

FF

 

There are plenty of issues here at UPS. I don't care to air our dirty laundry. It is very common for me as a newhire to hear my contemporaries that have a few years at UPS to say how this is the worst job they've ever had and that management is evil.

Personally, I think they have no idea what it is like to work elsewhere, but to each his own

As we say at UPS, the crap is just as brown they just pay us more to put up with it.

FF

 

Any more info on American having a young pilot group? I haven't really heard that before.

I have also been rather partial with AA. My grandpa flew for TWA for 40 years, and my aunt has been with American for over 20 years.

But anyway... I just joined the regional world almost a year ago, so if AA began hiring in 18months - 2 years, would work out good for me.

But I'll keep my options open...

 

I have heard AA as being an old group too. I thought it was DAL that had the young pilot group?

 

68% of captains and 41% of first officers are above the age of 50. 53% of the total group is above 50. 86% of the total pilot seniority list (not including furloughees) is above the age of 45. From 2010 to 2020: 2981 pilots are going to retire. From 2021 to 2025: another 3497 will retire. The rest of the seniority list will be retiring by 2028. This is all based on age 65.

The jury is still out on how many guys will stay beyond age 60. Since AA still has a descent retirement, it's anybody's guess. The current thinking is 30% will retire when they had planned (age 60 or sooner), 30% will go another year of two (61-63), and the rest will stay to 65. Doing the math, if you are a young stud with a freshly minted 400 hour job at a regional, and you get hired at AA around the 2010-2012 time frame, you should be at 50% of the seniority list by 2022-2023 (10 year time frame). This assumes a "steady state" at AA for the foreseeable future.

Having said that, I don't think there is a lot of "steady state" in this industry.

Good luck.