The age 60/65 rule has nothing to do about citizenship. The country rules determine the age of forced retirement. If you are British and work for a for a company that operates under FAA FAR121 you cannot be age 60 or above. If you are an American and work for a British company operating under CAA/JAA rules you can fly until age 65.

 

Gee thanks for the quick response! so as long as the airline isn't US based the 60 rule may not apply.?

 

You start off by bashing this guys spelling and then end your rant with a spelling mistake. So I'll have to assume that you meant "sorry" since I have no idea what "solly" is. And I have no idea why you think we are the "youth of aviation". I guess because we don't believe as you do, we must be greedy young punks. Sorry, but I think that the only greedy punk around here is you. You're willing to go all the way to India just for a few bucks. Don't kid yourself, you're only doing this for the money. It would have been much easier to rent or flight instruct here in the U.S. if you were just in it for the love of flying.

 

Dear PB,

After such a long and fruitful career I don't think he needs the money. What you have to realize is that after a full career of being a globe hopping pilot guys who are nearing 60 normally have no home, friends, family or hobbies left to retire to.
Sometimes the only people who are left are subordinates held hostage by the job. For those who have chosen this path the best that could happen is to pass away in the saddle and skip the years of lonesome silence while living as a stranger at some sterile retirement community.

SkyHigh

 

Just When Airlines Thought It Was Safe To Get Back Into The Black...
$75 Oil - A Whole New Dimension

Hot Flash Summary: It's fairly certain that if oil stays above $70 - or goes even higher - the airline industry will need to again fundamentally change.

Here's another strategic trend forecast from The Boyd Group, one that the aviation cognoscenti will sneer at today, and next year will be preaching like an evangelist who just discovered a gospel tent: The airlines best postured to weather this oil price storm are legacy carriers. The ones that will be hurt worst and first will be low-cost carriers. Some key points:

Legacies have reduced their operating costs, so they aren't wildly at variance with LCCs any longer.

Higher fuel costs will lead to higher fares. Higher fares will hit discretionary, price-driven passenger segments first. Passengers who in the past were created by low fares to Orlando will think twice with higher ticket prices and $3-per-gallon gas for the SUV.

Legacies will continue to have access to the strong growth traffic at places such as Shreveport, Taipei, Montgomery, Tupelo, and Kaoshiung. (Tupelo? Yup. Traffic's up almost double in two years. Maybe it's the consultant they hired.) LCCs don't have the fleets or the route systems to access these flows.

Most importantly, legacies are not as vulnerable to traffic down-turns as are LCCs. That's because several legacies have significant fleets they can quickly park, and have limited aircraft on order, unlike most LCCs. In fact, the new-airliner order book may well be the Achilles Heel of the LCC segment in the next 18 months.

First Qtr 2006 - It's Revenue Front & Center. Let's start with the good news. Legacy carriers have made the turn.

Sorry to disappoint some of the lightweights in the financial world, or some of those college professors who purport to know the airline industry, yet couldn't recognize a flight coupon from a speeding ticket. The facts are now clear: it's the LCCs that have the problem, while re-structured legacies have the revenue advantage.

Fact: American and Continental both reported operating profits - which, for all those ivory tower academics out there, means they made money running an airline, and did so paying essentially retail for fuel.

Fact: The low-cost phenomenon, as it is structured today, is running out of steam. Fact: without the fuel hedges (which, again, was a brilliant bet) Southwest would have reported not only net losses, but probably operating losses as well. The conclusion is inescapable that the future is in the revenue stream - and that's where the traditional low-cost model is running into problems.

Rather, it's where low-cost carriers are running into each other. And that's fixin' to get worse, with the capacity increases coming on line at Southwest, jetBlue, and AirTran.

Morphs To Come: Southwest. Southwest - take this to the bank - is fully aware of the situation, and is without doubt in the process of revising its traditional set - yes, set - of business models. The easy-meat markets are gone, so they have to now concentrate more heavily on taking share from other carriers, like at Denver and IAD, as opposed to relying on fare stimulation.

They surely know that their traditional product - such as the "fall of Saigon" boarding process - might have been fun for the DAL-Lubbock crowd, but it's less and less competitive when compared to what Frontier, AirTran, jetBlue, United, and the rest of the industry are offering. They also know that their labor costs need to be addressed. Some exciting labor negotiations may be in the cards.

Regarding Southwest, it's in it for the long-haul, and it's not going to be a static target for other carriers to shoot at. So plan on film at 11. Or, more correctly, film around the end of the year - there will be changes, and watch Wall Street go into a hissy-fit.

Now, the bad news. None of the above might make any difference.

If You Can't Afford Go-Juice, Park The Plane. Regardless of the shifts in the financial models of LCC v legacy, it's all a moot point if oil prices keep climbing. At $60 a barrel, the legacies have the costs and the revenues to carve out at least a break-even performance, while it's an open question if the traditional 100-150 seat legacy model has enough growth potential to support the new capacity they're adding, at least at current price points.

But at $75 a barrel, all bets are off - for everybody. If oil stays at that level - or goes higher - it changes the fundamentals of even this newly restructured airline industry. Tumble to it: if oil keeps going up, more major changes in the air transportation system are inevitable.

See F-16 Run. See Oil Run, Too. A lot of the price of oil is based on emotion - one missile attack on Iran's atomic-weapons facilities, and the market could head toward panic city. We could see the price of jet fuel to go toward $2.50 or even $2.75 per gallon. Depending on how fast this run-up occurs, it could send airline strategic planning back to the drawing board.

Doing a cursory glance at the globe, things are not going in the right direction. One African oil producer is threatening to cut off supplies if the World Bank doesn't allow its loans to be used for essentially the personal use of the country's president. There's our buddy Hugo down there in Venezuela, wiping out democracy, rigging elections with the approval of Jimmy Carter (senility is always fun), and who's contemplating selling oil mostly to China. Topping this off we have a wacko running Iran, one who's an open and enthusiastic proponent of reviving Hitler's "final solution."

Some Outcomes...

If oil stays at $75, or goes higher, we can expect some very fast moves by the airline industry:

Fares: No More Testing The Waters. Whether it's via a $20 fuel surcharge, an across-the-board fare hike, a juggling of fare buckets, or a combination of the above, air fares will be jacked up materially.

Traffic: Strong Economy Or Not, It'll Head Down. Keep in mind that as airlines find it imperative to raise fares, gasoline prices will go up, too. That means less disposable income to take the kids on a vacation to see grandma. Less in the travel budget at businesses. So, demand will drop - albeit unevenly by region and by market - and carriers will find it necessary to slash capacity. That's hard to do when you've got a bunch of new airplanes on hard order. Easier to do when you have a static fleet, and the ability to park some birds in the sun.

Fleets: Call Your Realtor At Coolidge, AZ. Desert space will be at a premium for airplane parking, as carriers cut back capacity. Carriers in the best shape, at least fleet-wise: Northwest:
a flock of DC-9s that can be easily parked and have little or no debt service. American: a large fleet of MD-80s that can be parked, aircraft rental costs notwithstanding. Delta: it has plenty of excess RJ lift that can come out, and, possibly, dumped under Chapter 11. Airlines in more difficult shape: those that a) have lots of new airplanes on order, and b) are focused on a plan that's predicated on domestic traffic growth to carry the day. Draw your own conclusions regarding who's who.

Labor: Already Pretty Much Bled Dry. Unlike in the past, labor cuts are not going to be in the cards, except at possibly at Southwest, and - as if it matters - at some "incremental lift re-sellers," a.k.a, small jet providers, a.k.a. regional airlines. This latter segment will be hit very hard, as the ability to generate sufficient revenues with high-cost 50-seaters will be even more dicey.

Rural Air Service: The Bar Is Going Up. The costs to access the incremental revenues at smaller airports are going to go up astronomically. That means that the ability of some communities to continue to support air service will be torpedoed.

Re-focus: Revenue Streams. The mainstream analytical crowd is just now starting to notice this, sort of like a Realtor who walks into the room that has the stove, sink, and dishwasher, and announces to the client, "This is the kitchen..." Logically, the airlines most vulnerable to $75 - $80 oil are those with the most vulnerable revenue streams - and it's not rocket science to see which ones are at the top of the hit parade. Discretionary passengers will be the first to go. Less affected will be core business travel, particularly intra-regional traffic, and international traffic. Figure it out.

For the airline industry, long-term $75 oil will be the quiet equivalent of another 9/11 attack.
~~~

 

Joel, wow alot said. I agree with most of your points. My hats off the SW pilots as they are the highest paid narrow body pilots in the airlines. A fact that may hurt them if/when fuel prices become a problem to them. I keep hearing 2009 is when their hedges run out but who knows. Their guys are smart there and they are probably making trades at these prices tohedge a further increase. I would imagine that the other carriers have caught on by now and should be doing the same thing. A SW buddy of mine told me that all SW does is trade heating oil contracts. Not sure if that was an example the company used to explain the hedge or what. Finally Randal, I am not a greedy young SOB who is all about chasing the pay as you would describe me. I realize that this rule now effects you and you have to leave the US to find a flying job. But you do not have to leave. There are flying jobs for guys of all ages here. I do though know the law of supply and demand and realize that if the age 60 rule is lifted, then that will be a dumping of labor into a market that is already saturated. I say that it is saturated because in a tight labor mkt, mgmt has no power to force salaries downward. I'm sure that companies are also backing this change as it will keep more experienced pilots in the work force longer but they will be able to grab them at cheaper pay. My opinion.

 

"solly" is chinese for "sorry" dumbkoff --we getting a tad(British for "little bit" ) bitter are we PB?? never mind someday hopefully you`ll get a "left seat" the "sangreal" of flying lol .

"OLD GUYS RULE"

 

Go to India and let us be rid of you please. It is tiresome listening to you rant and rave about what a raw deal you have. The rules were in place when you got into this game so why do you have to bellyache about how much better you are than all of us because you are older. Good luck Randal, do we have to listen to you complain anymore or are you happy now?

 

According to J. P. Jones--"I`ve only just begun to bellyache" kidding, where might i ask, have i been "ranting and raving" about what a raw deal i have?? quite to the contary, i have always been lucky,and for your info reached 60 last sept recieved lump-sums and pensions from 2 airlines , did a LR60 type rating, went to Geneva for 90 days @650 a day (all expenses ) fly maybe once a week for similar pay, and am now going to India, (A320 capt) about 10g`s t/free, so complaining i am not .HOWEVER i will always feel that the age 60 rule is nothing but downright discrimination against one particular set of workers and should be abolished period. and if you feel differently that is your problem my friend.

 

You greedy S.O.B.