Rotorhead

Finally some real talent (PDP) leading APA. Watchout Arpey, gloves are off.

eaglefly

I agree the gloves are off and I think they know it too. There is unalterable emotion involved this time, especially with management compensation angering the entire labor force and this time just as the gloves are off with the APA, the "realization" is IN with AMR.

I think AMR knows that the APA intends to force a financially crippling scope arrangement (either of the above 2 choices) in addition to pilot costs leaps and bounds above the competition. They know then the flood gates open for all other labor groups and AMR knows they won't need any smoke and mirrors to justify a trip to the courthouse.

It will be inevitable and unavoidable.

I think they intend to go there BEFORE the huge losses mount and with pre-arranged planning vs. crawling there later on their knees. If they have to go there (and I believe THEY believe they will sooner or later), then they'll go there in the best method (and time) to their advantage, especially looking like the victims. With "official" unemployment soon eclipsing 10% (it's already past that when those who haven't filed and given up are included), public, political and judicial sentiment will have rightly or wrongly the APA looking like bullies.

"All or Nothing" won't be the ultimate outcome for ALL the pilots, because many will get "something". Those most senior however are most likely to get "all" and those most junior are most likely to get "nothing".

AMR cannot dole out all this money and saddle themselves out of the market at the same time..........that's burning their candle from both ends. They can't do that with every labor group every 4-6 years in the future and still survive. At least, THEY believe they can't.

AMR is virtually certain to throw their hat in the BK ring, but they'll do much better because they'll do it on their terms with all the mistakes made by others avoided. Ironically, Wall street will likely applaud their move.

Time and timing...........................*tick*tock*tick*t ock*tick*tock*tick*tock*tick

Super80

99% of APA pilots are ready to burn the house down. If AMR thinks they are going to use BK to get another dream contract(for them) they are smoking it. I will walk off the job for as long as it takes that judge to realize he/she is holding the flying public hostage, And I could give a **** about public perception.

AAflyer

Right there with you!

AA

Wheels up

They also know that a huge number of senior captains will retire immediately if they sniff a BK in the making.

What Arpey and his pupsters want is a DAL bankruptcy caliber contract and virtually no scope, only without losing their massive personal bonuses. BK isn't the rape-the-unions and shovel-the-money-out-the-back-door exercise it used to be. What the "leadership" at AA is facing now is the culmination of years of horrid leadership and slight-of-hand when dealing with their employees. Hopefully the BOD of the company can see the Tsumani coming and get some new leadership that will negotiate a contract in good faith.

eaglefly

It's not that I don't agree, but I cannot see how these demands leave AMR viable (and I don't believe that because it's what they say....I've seen their BS too long myself). AMR cannot (or WILL not) give out huge raises to everyone and allow their revenue and competitive abilities to be strangled at the same time.

It will only lead to BK and isn't an option.

At that point, many WILL have to decide to either quit or accept the situation (as unpleasant as it is).

Have you planned for another career outside AA 2-3 years from now ?

It would be prudent to do so, as it seems one way or the other that will be the ultimate outcome. AMR intends to insure that their house won't burn down (because they know your sentiment and the APA's is real this time) and the only way to prevent that is a correctly timed pre-pak BK. In all likelyhood you'll have to choose to accept the situation (provided you're one of the survivors in the first place) or quit...........no self-help and no flaming houses.

It seems that just like the micro-strike and macro-fine of the past, a symbolic victory will be paid for by a strategic loss.

eaglefly

A large retirement of those senior pilots is something that they've wanted anyway.

If it were only about the pilots, I could see the possibility of capitulation, but if the pilots score a touchdown, AMR believes that the other unions will see them as weak, easy prey and vulnerable and they'll have to capitulate repeatedly until they have a hoplessly unviable company. To make it work, I'd bet the management would even minimize personal gain to smooth that BK, not that they'd have to..........Tilton & Co. had absolutely no problems enriching themselves in the process and OH ! how those lawyers made out.

An economically unviable company would be WORSE for the BOD, then 12-18 months of turbulence to secure a future.

I think you're right about the "DAL" contract with little or no scope. With ALL mainline labor angry and ready to gang up, perhaps the best (and ONLY) way to avoid that tsunami is to insure their house is on high ground when it hits.

Time is on their side and I think they'll be ready for the wave.

Know why ?

Unlike many real tsunami's which may or may not hit, they know this one will and where............they just have to make sure it happens WHEN it's best for them.

Time and timing.

7576FO

Well, it looks like Alaska has a Tentative agreement for it's MEC to approve.
But your "but I cannot see how these demands leave AMR viable"
Sounds like Continental is making headway.
eaglefly, you let your hatred of APA and your envy of AA pilots color your every post. You claim to be "something" at eagle. Just what are you?
Good day.
7576

B757200ER

Eaglefly is entitled to his opinion. He may be correct about Arpey's response and a future chapter 11 filing. I must agree that something, some sort of compromise, must preface any serious labor action. Hill and APA are right to shoot for the moon, but we all know AA will have to split that difference or find middle ground to get a contract done.

eaglefly

I don't "envy" AA pilots and don't hate them either. I have several friends who fly there. Yes, I have little love for the APA, but emotion isn't clouding my perceptions and comments. In fact, emotion is one aspect more present this time unlike previous conflicts between mainline labor and management and I don't believe that will change. Emotion can be good and not so good and this time Lloyd will have to lead the hardline charge forward or lose face.

Perhaps you can convince me how AMR is to be a profitable company with enormous wage and contract improvements demanded by the APA coupled at the same time with revenue strangling scope provisions. I'm all ears.

First examine the APA's opener and then estimate what the minimum acceptable package for the pilots will be. Then apply an equal improvement for every other labor group there and then finally either remove all small jet operations or apply the above minimum mainline packages to ALL aspects of RJ operations (probably cheaper to give up all that revenue).

Finally, if you remove all RJ ops, figure out the revenue losses to AA when 40% of there passengers cannot book their mainline flights because they can't get there (AE folded/pulled out of their connecting city and competition serves it).

Personally I still see AA ending up at the same place regardless of whether the APA is successful or not. It's just a matter of when and it would only be less to AMR's advantage under the longer, more costly route.

I wish the APA the best, but it seems to me either a win or loss on the "house burning" plan still leaves most AA pilots homeless. The APA hasn't to my knowledge offered any financially viable options for AMR to pay the huge compensation increases being demanded "or else" this time.

Remember, you have to price EVERYBODY (all labor) getting an equal deal. I suppose AMR could give all that out, get out of the RJ business, capitulate to scope and shrink itself to a strickly International carrier, but what would 75% of the pilots do when they have no plane to fly when AA becomes a 100 widebody plane airline ?

That's about the only type of airline they can operate competitively with the "burning house" plan.

What am I missing ?