Careful now... missionaries have daughters.

Oh boy buddy. BTW would your wife sign up for that? I mean she doesn't even want you go bid MSP!

I guess our newly negotiated no-furlough clause isn't about to stop them - say it's not so.

Also if DAL wants to furlough CPS is only required to train 20 month which means it could take 18 months to flush their list. DAL can still put 500-1000 on the street in very short order, and it will take (those that will not be flushed through) a long long time before they will be working for Compass.

Correct.

That CPZ flow is the detail that makes all of this up to debate. DAL knows the limitations of this flow and the requirements of it. Flush the list, fine save money on the front end, but as they recall DAL will pay for the PCS training in the back end. That is unless we give up the flow for more pay on lets say the 777. Then we could let the company furlough a lot easier and without all of those nasty costs.
Even if they decided to furlough, I do not see them getting rid of may of these "76 seat" jets. We will grieve it and when it is settled we will get a dinner at Arby's or something like that. ;)

I'm still wondering how some of you guys think DAL will run with 500 to 1000 less pilots. BP5 was delayed until AFTER summer 09 because if it was implemented any earlier the NWA side would have been SEVERELY short staffed.

With 777s & MD90s coming I don't see how we could furlough for longer then 2 years. They certainly could NOT justify furloughing 500 to 1000 for only 2 years, plus the airline would be crippled with that many out for any duration.

Thats my hope, I can't afford to be furloughed because I'm trying to buy some houses to flip, I've been watching these HGTV shows, most from 2006 but its still relevant, and I'm motivated. ;)

Well - the only way Delta could operate with 500 to 1000 less pilots is to park airplanes (as I understand the staffing right now). But since Delta is talking about cutting capacity, they could easily park airplane - poof, there goes the need for that 500-1000 pilots (if they cut enough).

Another option is to cut mainline service and replace it with RJs. That would impact mainline staffing with but would seem like less of a capacity cut.

One thing I've learned in this business is that airlines can shrink to unimaginably small sizes if business is bad enough: one of my former cargo airlines had 120 pilots when I was started there in 2000. Now it has 8.

Well I agree things could get bad enough to furlough that many, but my point was based on current plans & projections. I think the economy would have to get MUCH worse in order for DAL to park that many airplanes. Especially with a projected profit for 2009 & beyond.

You are correct, but it depends on what is cut and where the frequency is cut. I said it six months ago that if we announced another pull back we would probably see furloughs. Well, I expected to see a bigger pull back a few months ago. We really have waited too long. That said, they can run the numbers based on our forecast and come up with a metric that states we can furlough a few hundred for 18 to 24 months, they may do it. The bet would be that with the training restrictions at CPS many would not take it and move on. It is a gamble they may not want to take.
The numbers have not been run yet. We will see what Ken says next week.

Alot of people forget that we have already been downsized. Our industry got a head start on this recession because of the effects of 911. We have already made deep cuts. The growth since then was with the 50 and 70 seaters, that's were the fat is IMHO. BP5 was going to put us short before this announcement and may officially be a wash now. Also the company has no idea who will retire or go out on sick leave and when. They are having trouble pinpointing staffing because of the unexpected. Time will tell how this unfolds.

They havent started offering pilot early outs again or lowered our maxes yet when they do then that would show they are concerned about pilot staffing. The bid packages and increased flying per pilot is going up. Every month that goes by means our pilot group gets smaller by either retirements, med out, LTD, or let go. There are alot of factors in the staffing model and from what they are saying (lips moving, watch their feet ;) ) pilot staffing isn't an issue as of now. We'll see