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Old 07-07-2010 | 06:34 AM
  #301  
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Brake, could you explain your last statement? The quoted sentence is pertinent is it not? If the furlough went past the number of Capt positions, people would have been pushed down to a Compass FO position, correct?

I know I for one would have not flowed down to be a Compass FO.
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Old 07-07-2010 | 06:47 AM
  #302  
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Originally Posted by Bucking Bar
If you got back through the thread, the statement that the predictions about Compass were correct was noted. Brake then rebutted that predictions about furloughs were likely going to be incorrect. I confirmed my original furlough forecast (which from 2007 is a little out of date, but historically accurate).

It is the same forecast.

I readily admit it appears unlikely (and I hope it is). You have to remember that what we read in the news about Delta is usually our performance and trends which are extrapolated from last quarter, which means at best, that news is three to four months behind the actual market and a half year away from the data needed to make staffing prognostications. Based on what I see in the US market the reduction in government subsidies and supports, as well as flat line growth and Delta's long term trends, we are out of the woods as Delta pilots.

Brake Chatter was correct that I made that forecast and I'm just being honest and conceding he is correct.
Just to be clear, you also noted that nothing you espoused in terms of your "unity" agenda would have prevented a sale of Compass in any way. You seem to acknowledge that whether Compass was represented by the Delta MEC or their own MEC was immaterial to a sale of the airline. I think you also acknowledged that there is no way to force a merger of Compass and Delta absent some massive incentive (read concessions) to management. Even if we gave these massive concessions to force a merger, you also acknowledge that Compass assets could have still been sold and that small a fragmentation could have left all those pilots furloughed rather than picked up with the sale. Those are the realities in which decisions are made and not in the world of the webboards.

You seem to have an "I told you so" attitude here about your "predictions" yet you also acknowledge that your proposed "solutions" would have had no effect on the outcome. If I predict the stock market will go up every day, I will be right 50% of the time too.
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Old 07-07-2010 | 06:52 AM
  #303  
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Alpha,

The separation of our representative structure facilitated a spin off. Ray Charles could have seen that coming.

My proposed solution was to extend our list down to capture Compass as Delta pilots. Concomitantly closing the loophole that allowed the largest and most capable small jets from being outsourced.
Originally Posted by alfaromeo
I think you also acknowledged that there is no way to force a merger of Compass and Delta absent some massive incentive (read concessions) to management. Even if we gave these massive concessions to force a merger, you also acknowledge that Compass assets could have still been sold and that small a fragmentation could have left all those pilots furloughed rather than picked up with the sale. Those are the realities in which decisions are made and not in the world of the webboards.
Not true. My position is that we could have captured Compass for nearly nothing, possibly even gaining in the process. It was a subject worth of further study. Several resolutions were proposed along those lines and passed. At our MEC level, the f-DAL Reps voted to take no action on the request for study.

It is my recall, you have argued that scope restoration has a huge economic cost.

Given what Compass sold for, I would say it had little value to management. (worse, Delta's agreed to send more Billions out the door to fund other airlines' operations until 2017, these Billions will not benefit any Delta pilots)
Originally Posted by alfaromeo
If I predict the stock market will go up every day, I will be right 50% of the time too.
Not exactly, the market goes up more than it goes down. The problem is the market goes down much faster than it goes up. Bottoms are much harder to predict because fear is such a strong emotion. Sound valuations based on good data are irrelevant if there is simply no one bold enough to buy.

http://www.crestmontresearch.com/pdf...%20Yo%20Yo.pdf

You'll get the last word ... I have to go work.
Originally Posted by Brakechatter
I made my opinions known: This is a section 1 problem, and it will take a section 1 solution.
Worth repeating.

Last edited by Bucking Bar; 07-07-2010 at 09:12 AM.
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Old 07-07-2010 | 11:10 AM
  #304  
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Originally Posted by Maddoggin
Seems like an answer DAL would be happy with is a flow where that they can still pick who they want. So maybe a complete cancel may be premature. Maybe instead of a straight flow it would be a guaranteed interview with a modified flowdown. May not be the best option but I could see this being a solution being brought up. It would keep the flow in place and allow DAL to keep the 76 seaters and DAL would still have some say in who flows over.
Now why would those of us at Compass agree to a guaranteed interview? So we can trade an interview for OUR jobs? Sounds like a great deal. By the way, we already did interview for the Delta job and we were hired. Most of us in the upper two hundred of our senority list, left our previous companies to work for NWA. We were not refugees and were not just stright out of Riddle or UND. My hope during all of this is that the Delta pilot group will display professionalism, integrity, and offer what we at Compass were promised.

I don't believe the flow agreement was the only reason that Delta didn't furlough, but one must acknowledge this was a heavy factor. We assumed the risk for the last two years that Delta could have furloughed, and my job would have been gone. I just ask that the Delta pilot group reciprocate what we at Compass have already done for you. Please don't just take advantage of us when the times are bad, then leave us high and dry when everything is on the up swing.
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Old 07-07-2010 | 11:27 AM
  #305  
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Hey corn I feel for you. However you interviewed with nwa not dal. Its a tough pill to swallow but reality is what it is. If it was the same all the nwa poolies would be hired at dal. Sorry for the reality check best of luck.
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Old 07-07-2010 | 11:33 AM
  #306  
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Originally Posted by cornbeef007
Now why would those of us at Compass agree to a guaranteed interview? So we can trade an interview for OUR jobs? Sounds like a great deal. By the way, we already did interview for the Delta job and we were hired. Most of us in the upper two hundred of our senority list, left our previous companies to work for NWA. We were not refugees and were not just stright out of Riddle or UND. My hope during all of this is that the Delta pilot group will display professionalism, integrity, and offer what we at Compass were promised.

I don't believe the flow agreement was the only reason that Delta didn't furlough, but one must acknowledge this was a heavy factor. We assumed the risk for the last two years that Delta could have furloughed, and my job would have been gone. I just ask that the Delta pilot group reciprocate what we at Compass have already done for you. Please don't just take advantage of us when the times are bad, then leave us high and dry when everything is on the up swing.

hmmm Maddogin heard some things....nail on head. Maybe more for Mesaba than others. Others are most likely completely over. I quess we will see.
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Old 07-07-2010 | 12:04 PM
  #307  
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Originally Posted by brakechatter
You don't understand the economics well enough to be commenting. I didn't compare the Great Depression to the last 2 years. I said that the last two years was the worst economic regression SINCE the Great Depression.

There were many reasons that the company didn't furlough. I never said that the reason was the flow. There were multiple reason--the flow being one of them, and a significant one at that. The ROI on furlough is more than 18 months, and some of that is because of the flow agreement.

Speaking of the flow, this statement reflects you lack of understanding as to how the flow works:
Brakes,

Actually, what you wrote was "crisis" not "regression"-

Originally Posted by brakechatter
We have been through the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.
And that statement alone is a "comparison" to the great depression. - I can only reply to what you wrote, not what you meant.

Originally Posted by brakechatter
There were many reasons that the company didn't furlough. I never said that the reason was the flow. There were multiple reason--the flow being one of them, and a significant one at that. The ROI on furlough is more than 18 months, and some of that is because of the flow agreement.
I actually said the ROI on furloughs was "18 months (or so)" but I will agree you did cite other reasons besides the flow - However, you were pushing the "flow" as a big proponent for the company not to furlough, hence I keyed on that -

Originally Posted by brakechatter
The flow has been EXTREMELY valuable.
(...Then you and Bar started talking about farming and lost me frankly!?... )

As for MY last statement you criticized me for -

"Besides, I don't know many that would've taken anything less than a Capt. position at Compass anyway as a furloughee." -

As for not understanding the flow, maybe I was ambiguous in this statement, or completely incorrect? (Which, if the latter, please correct me?) However, that said, my understanding of the flow is this - I don't recall the exact number but if there are 375 Compass pilots - 175CA and 200F/O AND if DAL was to furlough 375 pilots AND they all flowed then -
175 DAL would get Capt. and 200 DAL would get F/O, pushing ALL Compass pilots out!? - Correct?
Now however if DAL pilots that were furloughed decided to "pass" on the Compass positions, (and I know loads that would "pass" on accepting F/O positions - the bottom 200 of the 375 furloughed) then the former Compass Capt. would/might take the remaining F/O's slots and the DAL main guys and gals that "passed" would just sit on their "unpaid vacations." It's not mandatory to accept the flow! So what did I miss?

Originally Posted by brakechatter
You don't understand the economics well enough to be commenting.
For a guy with zero debt, I think I have a good handle on it but hey, thanks for dismissing me nonetheless...

Originally Posted by johnso29
Actually, the two are very similar. There are people waiting in line for food, and it was happening BEFORE the latest downturn. Also, in the depression of the 1930's are you going to tell me that no one had $$, and no one was spending $$? The answer is yes, they DID have $$, & the ones who did were spending it.
Hey Johnso, in the spirit of friendly debate, I still don't believe they are that "similar" at all. Now while I do agree that some people might be waiting in lines, most of them seem to be driving to those food lines in their Mercedes SUV's! And while yes people back in the 30's who had money and spent it, the percentage of those people with disposable incomes back then was much much lower than today!

It's all about priorities was my point - people say they can't afford "food" but they can still buy games and movies and luxuries - if that's the case, it's NOT that bad In the 30's people could afford food and little if anything else!?... People feel too "entitled" these days -"What?! I have to buy the DVD Standard Def version because I can't afford the BLU-RAY deluxe version - that's crap!... Oh wait, I'll charge it, let's get 'em both - good to go...!"

In the immortal words of Chuck - "Good grief!"
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Old 07-07-2010 | 12:17 PM
  #308  
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Originally Posted by Bucking Bar
Alpha,

The separation of our representative structure facilitated a spin off. Ray Charles could have seen that coming.

My proposed solution was to extend our list down to capture Compass as Delta pilots. Concomitantly closing the loophole that allowed the largest and most capable small jets from being outsourced. Not true. My position is that we could have captured Compass for nearly nothing, possibly even gaining in the process. It was a subject worth of further study. Several resolutions were proposed along those lines and passed. At our MEC level, the f-DAL Reps voted to take no action on the request for study.

It is my recall, you have argued that scope restoration has a huge economic cost.

Given what Compass sold for, I would say it had little value to management. (worse, Delta's agreed to send more Billions out the door to fund other airlines' operations until 2017, these Billions will not benefit any Delta pilots)Not exactly, the market goes up more than it goes down. The problem is the market goes down much faster than it goes up. Bottoms are much harder to predict because fear is such a strong emotion. Sound valuations based on good data are irrelevant if there is simply no one bold enough to buy.

http://www.crestmontresearch.com/pdf...%20Yo%20Yo.pdf

You'll get the last word ... I have to go work.Worth repeating.

I would disagree with almost everything in the post. I have had personal conversations with some of the people directly involved on the management side on these type issues. There was virtually nothing we could have offered to convince management to merge Compass or Comair or ASA with out list. Keep in mind we don't control the list. Management does. They have a very defined agenda and operating a airline with all the pilots on one bargining agreement and one agent is their absolute worst nightmare. They want to divide and keep the groups divided in as many groups as possible. Why do you think they did not merge ASA and Comair when it would seem to make business sense from every aspect you could look at? That also brings up the biggest failure of the ASA and Comair MEC's when they did not demand a single carrier ruling from the NMB. That would have been almost a lock given the Eagle decision.
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Old 07-07-2010 | 01:38 PM
  #309  
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Sigh

BalloonChaser:
Actually, what you wrote was "crisis" not "regression"
And that statement alone is a "comparison" to the great depression. - I can only reply to what you wrote, not what you meant.
We'll take it nice and slow this time. What I wrote was that we just experienced the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. That does NOT compare this last crisis to the Great Depression. It says that both the Great Depression and the last regression were both crisis. It further implies that the last regression of the economy was the worst regression all the way back, but not including, the Great Depression. If I had meant that it was worse that the Great Depression, I would have stated that this was the worst economic crisis in the history of the United States. If you want to get hung up on that, knock yourself out.....please.

I actually said the ROI on furloughs was "18 months (or so)" but I will agree you did cite other reasons besides the flow - However, you were pushing the "flow" as a big proponent for the company not to furlough, hence I keyed on that -
If you are going to throw out a number, be able to back it up. The flow was a major reason the company did not furlough.

(...Then you and Bar started talking about farming and lost me frankly!?... )
We did, and nobody invited you into the fray. You made your choice.


<<Originally Posted by brakechatter
You don't understand the economics well enough to be commenting.>>
For a guy with zero debt, I think I have a good handle on it but hey, thanks for dismissing me nonetheless...
I'm sure every is as proud of you as you are, but the reference is that you do not understand the furlough economics to be commenting intelligently, and you don't. Here's why:

As for not understanding the flow, maybe I was ambiguous in this statement, or completely incorrect? (Which, if the latter, please correct me?) However, that said, my understanding of the flow is this - I don't recall the exact number but if there are 375 Compass pilots - 175CA and 200F/O AND if DAL was to furlough 375 pilots AND they all flowed then -
175 DAL would get Capt. and 200 DAL would get F/O, pushing ALL Compass pilots out!? - Correct?
Now however if DAL pilots that were furloughed decided to "pass" on the Compass positions, (and I know loads that would "pass" on accepting F/O positions - the bottom 200 of the 375 furloughed) then the former Compass Capt. would/might take the remaining F/O's slots and the DAL main guys and gals that "passed" would just sit on their "unpaid vacations." It's not mandatory to accept the flow! So what did I miss?
Go educate yourself, then come back and jump into the debate. On second thought, maybe ACL will bail you out. I just ran out of time.

Last edited by brakechatter; 07-07-2010 at 01:39 PM. Reason: punctuation
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Old 07-07-2010 | 01:54 PM
  #310  
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Originally Posted by Bucking Bar
Alpha,

The separation of our representative structure facilitated a spin off. Ray Charles could have seen that coming.

My proposed solution was to extend our list down to capture Compass as Delta pilots. Concomitantly closing the loophole that allowed the largest and most capable small jets from being outsourced. Not true. My position is that we could have captured Compass for nearly nothing, possibly even gaining in the process. It was a subject worth of further study. Several resolutions were proposed along those lines and passed. At our MEC level, the f-DAL Reps voted to take no action on the request for study.

It is my recall, you have argued that scope restoration has a huge economic cost.
Nice proposed solution, now how do you get it done? How do you get it done easily? NWA management took a lot of trouble and effort to create this separate operation. Somehow you think we could get our management to undo that, how? By saying pretty please? It is just naive to think that it would be "easy" or done for nearly nothing. To think that we could ask management to merge Compass and they would give us contract gains in the process is really naive.

Frankly, Ray Charles saw that divestiture was an option the minute NWA set up Compass. That is why management set it up that way and that is why it would be neither easy nor cost free to change their minds. Clearly the NWA MEC saw it as an option as they wrote in contingencies in the side letter to deal with that possibility.

I truly believe that our company would be better off by bringing back 70+ seat flying to mainline. The people that own and run this company think otherwise. You can change their minds (cheap solution but quite difficult) or buy them out (expensive solution and still difficult). To think you can "study" your way out of that dilemma is not realistic. Appoint me dictator for life at Delta and I will fix it easy and quickly. Until that happens we will continue to work in the real world.
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