Sure. When the passion for past grudges results in an inability to analyze job protection issues objectively then they need to be evaluated and lessons applied, or discredited and forgotten.

Out of respect for decorum, my post has been deleted.

The goal is that we do not repeat the same mistakes for the same reasons.

Ok, Kreskin. Tell me what job protections we have given up with this latest transaction.

Then tell me again when your prediction for furloughs is.

We'll go from there.

Brakes,

Job Protection provisions have to be built with the expectation of the worst case scenario. "Worst case" is when they will be tested and when they'll have to work reliably.

Trans States is not the carrier it used to be. The GoJets situation put TSA's management number one on the list of "do not fly for under any circumstances" for many of us.

Flow through agreements are weak and problematic due to the fact that they rely on airline management to keep a future promise of employment. Before, Compass was Delta management who mostly can be trusted. Not so with the GoJets team. Even if the flow does survive (which I doubt), very few of your most junior First Officers would want that "opportunity" with this change. Go Jets / TSA management is not going to be particularly interested in having Delta pilots flow down either and my understanding is Delta management does not like the flow.

So who likes the flow? TSA management likes reducing longevity costs and Compass pilots like the flow. Those are two parties who really don't have a seat at the table if scope is being discussed and lest we forget, this flow is a creation of Delta scope.

The errors that I believe we made are that we divested "regional" pilots from our ranks, along with their aircraft Type. Certainly the strongest negotiation position would have been to claim them as our own, even if we intended to sell them. What has more value, a Delta pilot, or a Compass pilot? What has more value to you, pilots below you on the list (real furlough protection) or pilots at another airline? Who's seniority does Delta have an obligation to honor?

At this late point we have lost the ability to enhance the value of Compass, as furlough protection, or as a tool to recapture job protections lost in bankruptcy negotiations. Again, the strongest negotiating position is that of unity because it is the most difficult for management to make liquid and transact.

I pretty much disagree with everything you have just typed.

The flow has been EXTREMELY valuable.

We have been through the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. Some say it is not over. Yet not 1 single Delta pilot was furloughed. To say that the flow through, and more appropriately the flow DOWN, had no effect on furloughs is disingenuous--at best. I believe, since you failed to provide the information, that you predicted furloughs in October. If that is not correct forget this statement: We are going to hire. Now, October is 4 months away, and anything can happen between now and then, but it looks rosy for now.

Does this latest transaction have the ability to allow us to blow ourselves up? Most certainly. At the same time, I have spoken with and gotten the mindset of our representatives. They had not even been briefed on the fallout of this transaction as early as yesterday. I made my opinions known: This is a section 1 problem, and it will take a section 1 solution. That being said, this transaction has just now peeked above the surface. There are many aspects of it which make no sense on the surface. Thus, perhaps we do not possess all of the details, or the transaction will shift to something else. Its too early to tell.

I WILL agree that unity is a good thing, and that horse was running wild out to pasture before you or I walked into the barn. However, a certain RJDC faction walked up to the barn door whilst the horse was standing in the newly opened door. They fires several live rounds into the air, scaring the bejesus out of said animal; causing it to not only to bound for open pasture, but eye the door warily and keep a very safe distance. I have observed first hand the horse whisperers arriving onto the scene with the intent of quelling the beast and trying to get him back in the barn.

The RJDC sued ALPA. I have no problem with that. The RJDC sought damages which included circumventing MY legally negotiated PWA. Them's fighting words, and unforgivable. I know who they are, and will remember them.

That being said, a number of Comair pilots--back to the topic of issue-- have found a way onto our list. I have flown with several of them, and have been extraordinarily pleased with their performance. I look forward to more of them joining our ranks. So your premise that I will take joy in lobbing grenades at them is unfounded and outright wrong.

So, you pulled your post. Sorry, too late. If I may be honest, I think that you are extremely smart, dedicated, and talented. You have, however, just the slightest inkling of chicken little syndrome. Your predictions that you bragged about in your post have not come true to this date, and I seriously doubt that your furlough predictions for october, again if my memory serves, will come to pass. PMs don't count, APC doesn't count either. Get into the fray, my friend. It is YOUR future.

Brakechatter,

I agree with what you wrote. The flow down was, and is, an important part of our job protection provisions. In fact, your quote is well worth repeating:You and I both witnessed the crime from different perspectives. You were in the barn and I was in the tree outside (with a less obstructed view). The farmer made a deal to sell the farm, but he couldn't tell the kids of his plans to squander their inheritance. He decided to tell everyone the sacred cows were stolen, then he'd claim the insurance money and retire. He opened the door and fired the shots, then fingered the straw man. When the straw man saw the sacred cows stampeding off the farm he figured the best way to save the day was to build a big fence that would protect them. To do so the straw man needed a hammer and some nails. Lumber from the open barn door was as good as any other lumber. I cautioned the straw man that there were flaws with his hammer, materials cost too much and that the farmer was a dangerous adversary. In the end, he lacked the workforce and materials to get the job done before the cows were taken by enterprising farmers from Utah and Indiana. The Straw Man settled for the ability to watch the farmhouse from a nearby hill. From this vantage point he calls the cops any time he sees a door on the barn starting to open, or close. The farmer resents the surveillance with a passion and ended up with a lot less retirement than what he had hoped his plan would produce. The kids work the farm now, making a lot less than the farmer did. The old homestead is still beautiful and green. The problem is, the farm just isn't as big as it once was and those cows that got lose are now competition for the homestead's production.

The neighboring farm to the Southwest avoided all the shenanigans and just stuck to farming. Their farm lacks all the fancy divisions and all the managers to figure it all out, but the barn is in pretty good shape. It has all of its doors and many fewer bullet holes. The just cows do what cows do ... eat grass, fart and mooooo.

Just because I understand and try to explain something does not mean I support or am trying to defend it.

As for my December 2010 forecast, I hope that I'm wrong. If the market speculation regarding our profitability is anything more than a pump and dump, I'll be eating that prediction with a smile.

Bar, you make a prediction of furloughs about every 6 months. Is there anything different about this time?

Seems like an answer DAL would be happy with is a flow where that they can still pick who they want. So maybe a complete cancel may be premature. Maybe instead of a straight flow it would be a guaranteed interview with a modified flowdown. May not be the best option but I could see this being a solution being brought up. It would keep the flow in place and allow DAL to keep the 76 seaters and DAL would still have some say in who flows over.

Not that I would be agreeable to this, but what would a modified flowdown look like?

I think too many people think that Delta's concern is the flow up...Those of us at compass were originally hired by meeting NW's hiring minimums doing the NW interview and sim profile along with completing the NW medical. Recently our hiring practices have been changed and a consultant company has been hired to revamp the process to model DL's hiring practices. Essentially we have all been employees of Delta and Delta has access to more information about us than they would any new hire off the street. Now that DL is talking hiring very few people are thinking furlough if DL is able to cancel the flow we may all soon find out just how much job protection Compass did provide for mainline

My personal feelings are that the CPZ guys that are on there now were hired expecting the flow, and screened as such. I believe we should do the right thing and honor that for the group that is there now.

Beyond that... I personally will not bat an eye is the flow is cancelled after that group flows.

NW and DL both had there thumb on our hiring practices. Now that we are no longer a WO I don't know why DL would want anything to do with the flow. I can't help but think that this is about something bigger than the flow though... Time will tell

Seriously!? That's comparing apples to oranges. In the deepest month of this "crisis" there were over 8 million game consoles sold in the US alone. No one is waiting in line for cheese or bread like they were in the 30's! To compare them is ridiculous!

Furloughs need 18 months (or so) to be a profitable return - You need to street the pilots for 18 months to get the benefit of the furlough. I don't think honestly in this "crisis" there was a period where you couldn't find enough proof that the turn-around was going to take longer that that! The fact that they would've needed to furlough starting around the $140 bucks/barrel time and hadn't and here we are two years later hiring says they did a good job speculating that furloughs weren't a necessary evil.

But to say they didn't furlough was because of the Compass flow? I disagree. If they needed to cut the cost and it was dire, flow or not, they'll street the pilots and figure it out later! Besides, I don't know many that would've taken anything less than a Capt. position at Compass anyway as a furloughee.

Anyway, sorry for the tangent, getting back on the highway...

Agreed, in 2001 they went from hiring 100 a month to furloughing 300 in one day in November, a mere 3 months later, via force majeur. If they need or want to furlough, they will and ask questions later.....

Who says DAL is talking hiring less and thinking furlough? Source. Hint: BB does not count :rolleyes:

Don't throw fear grenades because you're upset or bitter. DAL isn't anywhere close to furloughing. :rolleyes:

Actually, the two are very similar. There are people waiting in line for food, and it was happening BEFORE the latest downturn. Also, in the depression of the 1930's are you going to tell me that no one had $$, and no one was spending $$? The answer is yes, they DID have $$, & the ones who did were spending it.

Plus ROI with the flow down was 22 months. It's less without the flow down, & depends on the #, but it makes a difference. Read the contract. Costs beyond the companies control cannot be fuel costs, weather. In other words, those don't count as force majuere.

Sigh. This isn't an analogy contest. I don't have the time to go tit for tat, line by line to point out that your farmer did not retire, that the holes in the SWA barn door may be fewer--but still let in insects, we have calls on the rest of our land without expiration, etc.

Suffice to say, that I think you are wasting your intelligence on unsubstantiated pessimism. We will never agree on how things went down, that we can practically reign in all of our flying, that the rjdc wasn't the single largest bunch of regional scumbags ever, and a myriad of other things.

I'm glad you made the jump, and I think that it was a good call on your part. One last point, I don't look at people below me on the list as furlough protection. The last guy deserves as much job security as the first guy.

You don't understand the economics well enough to be commenting. I didn't compare the Great Depression to the last 2 years. I said that the last two years was the worst economic regression SINCE the Great Depression.

There were many reasons that the company didn't furlough. I never said that the reason was the flow. There were multiple reason--the flow being one of them, and a significant one at that. The ROI on furlough is more than 18 months, and some of that is because of the flow agreement.

Speaking of the flow, this statement reflects you lack of understanding as to how the flow works:

If you got back through the thread, the statement that the predictions about Compass were correct was noted. Brake then rebutted that predictions about furloughs were likely going to be incorrect. I confirmed my original furlough forecast (which from 2007 is a little out of date, but historically accurate).

It is the same forecast.

I readily admit it appears unlikely (and I hope it is). You have to remember that what we read in the news about Delta is usually our performance and trends which are extrapolated from last quarter, which means at best, that news is three to four months behind the actual market and a half year away from the data needed to make staffing prognostications. Based on what I see in the US market the reduction in government subsidies and supports, as well as flat line growth and Delta's long term trends, we are out of the woods as Delta pilots.

Brake Chatter was correct that I made that forecast and I'm just being honest and conceding he is correct.

This is a very accurate post, scope, regional airline sales, and IPO's were used to fund the ailing pilot pension funds among other things. This plan eventually was a massive failure on everyone's part when the economy collapsed. Once the pension fund obligations go away, the regionals will go away, and the profession can begin to be restored.

Brake, could you explain your last statement? The quoted sentence is pertinent is it not? If the furlough went past the number of Capt positions, people would have been pushed down to a Compass FO position, correct?

I know I for one would have not flowed down to be a Compass FO.

Just to be clear, you also noted that nothing you espoused in terms of your "unity" agenda would have prevented a sale of Compass in any way. You seem to acknowledge that whether Compass was represented by the Delta MEC or their own MEC was immaterial to a sale of the airline. I think you also acknowledged that there is no way to force a merger of Compass and Delta absent some massive incentive (read concessions) to management. Even if we gave these massive concessions to force a merger, you also acknowledge that Compass assets could have still been sold and that small a fragmentation could have left all those pilots furloughed rather than picked up with the sale. Those are the realities in which decisions are made and not in the world of the webboards.

You seem to have an "I told you so" attitude here about your "predictions" yet you also acknowledge that your proposed "solutions" would have had no effect on the outcome. If I predict the stock market will go up every day, I will be right 50% of the time too.

Alpha,

The separation of our representative structure facilitated a spin off. Ray Charles could have seen that coming.

My proposed solution was to extend our list down to capture Compass as Delta pilots. Concomitantly closing the loophole that allowed the largest and most capable small jets from being outsourced. Not true. My position is that we could have captured Compass for nearly nothing, possibly even gaining in the process. It was a subject worth of further study. Several resolutions were proposed along those lines and passed. At our MEC level, the f-DAL Reps voted to take no action on the request for study.

It is my recall, you have argued that scope restoration has a huge economic cost.

Given what Compass sold for, I would say it had little value to management. (worse, Delta's agreed to send more Billions out the door to fund other airlines' operations until 2017, these Billions will not benefit any Delta pilots)Not exactly, the market goes up more than it goes down. The problem is the market goes down much faster than it goes up. Bottoms are much harder to predict because fear is such a strong emotion. Sound valuations based on good data are irrelevant if there is simply no one bold enough to buy.

http://www.crestmontresearch.com/pdf...%20Yo%20Yo.pdf

You'll get the last word ... I have to go work.Worth repeating.

Now why would those of us at Compass agree to a guaranteed interview? So we can trade an interview for OUR jobs? Sounds like a great deal. By the way, we already did interview for the Delta job and we were hired. Most of us in the upper two hundred of our senority list, left our previous companies to work for NWA. We were not refugees and were not just stright out of Riddle or UND. My hope during all of this is that the Delta pilot group will display professionalism, integrity, and offer what we at Compass were promised.

I don't believe the flow agreement was the only reason that Delta didn't furlough, but one must acknowledge this was a heavy factor. We assumed the risk for the last two years that Delta could have furloughed, and my job would have been gone. I just ask that the Delta pilot group reciprocate what we at Compass have already done for you. Please don't just take advantage of us when the times are bad, then leave us high and dry when everything is on the up swing.

Hey corn I feel for you. However you interviewed with nwa not dal. Its a tough pill to swallow but reality is what it is. If it was the same all the nwa poolies would be hired at dal. Sorry for the reality check best of luck.

hmmm Maddogin heard some things....nail on head. Maybe more for Mesaba than others. Others are most likely completely over. I quess we will see.

Brakes,

Actually, what you wrote was "crisis" not "regression"-

And that statement alone is a "comparison" to the great depression. - I can only reply to what you wrote, not what you meant.

I actually said the ROI on furloughs was "18 months (or so)" but I will agree you did cite other reasons besides the flow - However, you were pushing the "flow" as a big proponent for the company not to furlough, hence I keyed on that -

(...Then you and Bar started talking about farming and lost me frankly!?... :confused:)

As for MY last statement you criticized me for -

"Besides, I don't know many that would've taken anything less than a Capt. position at Compass anyway as a furloughee." -

As for not understanding the flow, maybe I was ambiguous in this statement, or completely incorrect? (Which, if the latter, please correct me?) However, that said, my understanding of the flow is this - I don't recall the exact number but if there are 375 Compass pilots - 175CA and 200F/O AND if DAL was to furlough 375 pilots AND they all flowed then -
175 DAL would get Capt. and 200 DAL would get F/O, pushing ALL Compass pilots out!? - Correct?
Now however if DAL pilots that were furloughed decided to "pass" on the Compass positions, (and I know loads that would "pass" on accepting F/O positions - the bottom 200 of the 375 furloughed) then the former Compass Capt. would/might take the remaining F/O's slots and the DAL main guys and gals that "passed" would just sit on their "unpaid vacations." It's not mandatory to accept the flow! So what did I miss?

For a guy with zero debt, I think I have a good handle on it but hey, thanks for dismissing me nonetheless...

Hey Johnso, in the spirit of friendly debate, I still don't believe they are that "similar" at all. Now while I do agree that some people might be waiting in lines, most of them seem to be driving to those food lines in their Mercedes SUV's! And while yes people back in the 30's who had money and spent it, the percentage of those people with disposable incomes back then was much much lower than today!

It's all about priorities was my point - people say they can't afford "food" but they can still buy games and movies and luxuries - if that's the case, it's NOT that bad In the 30's people could afford food and little if anything else!?... People feel too "entitled" these days -"What?! I have to buy the DVD Standard Def version because I can't afford the BLU-RAY deluxe version - that's crap!... Oh wait, I'll charge it, let's get 'em both - good to go...!"

In the immortal words of Chuck - "Good grief!"

I would disagree with almost everything in the post. I have had personal conversations with some of the people directly involved on the management side on these type issues. There was virtually nothing we could have offered to convince management to merge Compass or Comair or ASA with out list. Keep in mind we don't control the list. Management does. They have a very defined agenda and operating a airline with all the pilots on one bargining agreement and one agent is their absolute worst nightmare. They want to divide and keep the groups divided in as many groups as possible. Why do you think they did not merge ASA and Comair when it would seem to make business sense from every aspect you could look at? That also brings up the biggest failure of the ASA and Comair MEC's when they did not demand a single carrier ruling from the NMB. That would have been almost a lock given the Eagle decision.

Sigh :rolleyes:

We'll take it nice and slow this time. What I wrote was that we just experienced the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. That does NOT compare this last crisis to the Great Depression. It says that both the Great Depression and the last regression were both crisis. It further implies that the last regression of the economy was the worst regression all the way back, but not including, the Great Depression. If I had meant that it was worse that the Great Depression, I would have stated that this was the worst economic crisis in the history of the United States. If you want to get hung up on that, knock yourself out.....please.

If you are going to throw out a number, be able to back it up. The flow was a major reason the company did not furlough.

We did, and nobody invited you into the fray. You made your choice.


I'm sure every is as proud of you as you are, but the reference is that you do not understand the furlough economics to be commenting intelligently, and you don't. Here's why:

Go educate yourself, then come back and jump into the debate. On second thought, maybe ACL will bail you out. I just ran out of time.

Nice proposed solution, now how do you get it done? How do you get it done easily? NWA management took a lot of trouble and effort to create this separate operation. Somehow you think we could get our management to undo that, how? By saying pretty please? It is just naive to think that it would be "easy" or done for nearly nothing. To think that we could ask management to merge Compass and they would give us contract gains in the process is really naive.

Frankly, Ray Charles saw that divestiture was an option the minute NWA set up Compass. That is why management set it up that way and that is why it would be neither easy nor cost free to change their minds. Clearly the NWA MEC saw it as an option as they wrote in contingencies in the side letter to deal with that possibility.

I truly believe that our company would be better off by bringing back 70+ seat flying to mainline. The people that own and run this company think otherwise. You can change their minds (cheap solution but quite difficult) or buy them out (expensive solution and still difficult). To think you can "study" your way out of that dilemma is not realistic. Appoint me dictator for life at Delta and I will fix it easy and quickly. Until that happens we will continue to work in the real world.

I'm going to agre with you on this. Purchase prioritieshave been out of whack for a long time. It's part of what got our country into the whole mess. IMHO.

I think when they calculated the costs they went worst case scenario...i.e. every furlough taking a Compass position. Thats another 370ish E175 type ratings PLUS the displacement training. It would be safer to figure that, rather then guess how many would pass the flow down. Again, JMHO.

As much as I am loath to admit it, Alfa is correct.

The solution to this problem is neither cheap, nor easy.

It will take a GREAT deal of intestinal fortitude, an ability to set a goal, and stick to it (no more lines in the sand, please), plus a good deal of will to roll the hard six. It probably will help to act a little crazy.

Time and the status quo is on the company's side. But the CBA permits us a slight press to test if we have the jones to press it.

Nu

Hey Brake, who I am I bailing out this time and why? :eek:

we will have to take you at your word.

I do wish ALPA would ask the question and publish the response. It would help resolve a lot of debate on a data point that no one seems to nail down outside of anecdotal accounts. Published accounts indicate our MEC supports the current 76 seat limit, so it stands to reason why we don't ask about change.

As for Comair & ASA, a merger could not fix their problem. The portfolio would have gone from 13 to 12. Eagle managed to wrap up their whole portfolio, which is huge, but it did not fix their problem either.

Good MEC update out.

Read it. Twice. Where does it say we will not budge one iota on scope? I just read it to say they are looking at the PWA to see the implications of the sale. I would hope they are doing that, and more. At least they are telling us something, which is better than silence. What am I missing with respect to this MSA/CPZ topic?

I understand all that but seeing as how the company might (and has) displaced so many categories in the last two years (One catagory downsize caused cascading displacements that netted close to 10% of the pilots having to go through the training center.) So, while I agree the flow may have been one (of numerous) deterrents to furlough, I find it hard to believe that with the way management seems to look at training as a "fixed" cost they would really care about a 3 to 1 turn around (e.g. training the DAL furloughs that flow to the E175, then training those DAL pilots back to main and the subsequent E175 furloughed pilots back to CPZ.) if push came to shove. Just seems like the consultants should/would/could have determined (and maybe they had) how many main would've said "Thanks but no thanks." - Call me when my seat is ready!?...
Besides, could DAL not have furloughed/flowed and then sold Compass anyway, making the retraining of former CPZ someone elses problem or are/were there provisions against such a sale during an active furlough/flow event?
BTW, thanks for the reply...

Setting a line in the sand is stupid. You say lets not budge a inch on scope.
What would you say if the company said this. We want to cancel the flows. We want to keep 76 seats in each jet at the current limits. We have a order ready to go for the E195. We will sign a contract that has the first aircraft on the property in Jan of 11. Deliveries will be a minimum yearly average of 2 per month. After 36 months the number of 76 seaters permitted above 85 will match the number of E195's on the property above the current fleet numbers. If we add 75 E195 but park 40 DC-9's then the company only gets 35 76 seaters above 85.
Would you vote no??

P.S. I made up the E195. This is not a rumor so don't read anything into it other then why you don't set firm lines. Everything has to be looked at in context.

We're Getting E195's In January!?!??

That Must Be The Big Mystery Crate In The Training Center!!!