Delta Pilots Association
12-07-2010 | 05:06 AM
#3331
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 1,601
Likes: 0
From: Dismayed
"Do you think we should ask for fire?"
"I don't know. If we ask, God might get mad at us."
"But, He gave it to us already."
"Yes. But, He can't afford to give it to us again. Market forces, you know."
"How do you know He can't afford it? I've heard He's pretty creative."
"Look. Even if He did give it to us, we don't want it. If we got it, God's other creatures would be so jealous of us, they would destroy the world."
"So, we should wait until the bears get it?"
"Yup."
"Humm......"
12-07-2010 | 06:19 AM
#3332
Happy to be here
Joined: Jun 2006
Posts: 18,563
Likes: 0
From: A-320A
No you weren't dude. Your initial posts on this only talked about how impossible it will be to restore pay all in one bite because it would cost billions. We now know that was BS. Now you're back pedaling and saying you were really talking about purchasing power when you said pay. That's quite typical for you as we know.
The days of you using scare tactics and made up numbers to lower expectations here are over. We're going to find out actual facts here...one way or another.
Carl
The days of you using scare tactics and made up numbers to lower expectations here are over. We're going to find out actual facts here...one way or another.
Carl
Here is a link to my initial post I posted for DAL88. Initial public math and questions that need to be answered.
Not backing up at all. Restoration as DAL88 sells it is just that, C2K 2004 rates plus inflation of the DAL (not NWA) PWA. Keep in mind that these number below are for rates, not work rules, retirement, sick leave, vacation, etc. Just the hourly rate.
http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/875464-post48412.html
Here is the Inflation YOY since 2004:
Historical Inflation data from 1914 to the present
Put the link so you can verify the source
2004: 2.68
2005: 3.39
2006: 3.24
2007: 2.85
2008: 3.85
2009: -0.34
For a grand total of 15.67% total inflation since the start of 2004. (liner non compounding math used.) Compounding annually equals about 16.61%
So what you are asking for on Jan 1, 2013 is this:
Lets use 2012 777/744A pay and compare it to 2004 C2K 777 pay of 319 an hr
319-225= 94 dollars per hr up front plus a 15.67% increase on the 319 figure to equal 368.99 per hr from our book of 225, or a 64% increase, correct? (or 65%)
Math 319-225= 94 bump plus inflation=
319x 1.1567=368.99 per hr (or the other way 371.99 per hr)
368.99-225.00= 143.99 per hr immediate increase. (371.99-225= 146.99)
Lets just extrapolate that out a little as well. 5% last year was equal to 90 million. 4% next year is equal to 75 million. Without computing the non-linear data for the next two pay bumps that would equate to a 18-18.75 million dollar per percent increase in the total value of the PWA without costing out more retirement and or work rule improvements.
We on the same page?
We will use 18 million for a uber conservative estimate on pay costs alone.
18 x 64= 1.152 billion dollar increase to the PWA for hourly rates alone (or 18 x 65= 1.170 billion)
This is public math and I am doing it by had, but you get the point of what that is correct? It will equate to the total profit we will make this year and some more if we make another 600 million this year.
Before we discuss the merits and positions of the proposal I want to ask you a few questions:
1)How long you think it will take to get the company and a mediator to agree to releasing us for this amount on day one? five, six, seven years?
2)What is the inflationary rate going to do over this period now that we are coming out of a high debt recession for the us government?
3)How strong do you think these guys that will retire in 2019-2020 and before are going to be given that they may never see a penny of this?
4)Do you think that 50% of this group that will retire in that time frame is going to take a more pragmatic approach that will most definitely put more money in their pocket now so they can invest it correctly in a boom cycle?
5) Where do you see the economy in this time frame (2017-2020) given our boom/bust cycle? Do you see it as an era that will allow an end game to be played out?
6) Who is going to be in the White House?
7) Is foreign ownership going to change the game completely?
Just questions I want answered before I sign on to any proposal?
12-07-2010 | 06:49 AM
#3333
No longer cares
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 12,109
Likes: 0
From: 767er Captain
Does it matter? Certainly not obama... (I hope)
It already has.. we just don't know it yet.
12-07-2010 | 07:01 AM
#3334
At home on the maddog!
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 2,874
Likes: 0
From: Retired (mandatory age 65)
When I throw out numbers showing what it would take for restoration in 2012, I'm just throwing that out to add perspective that I see missing from many posts, including some of yours. I think I've been pretty clear on that. What I do expect is for us to get full restoration (or close to it) over the life of our next contract. If that makes me "extreme and radical", well then so be it. Personally, I think anyone who believes airline pilots should be compensated at a level of HALF the norm that was established over decades of precedence is "extreme and radical."
12-07-2010 | 07:14 AM
#3335
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 126
Likes: 0
From: Boardroom Chair
Can I go on record and state, I don't care about how we arrive at some version of C2K pay rates fifteen years later? We need to let go of the past boys. As Bruce Springsteen sang, "those jobs are goin' boys and they ain't coming back."
We are not going to restore our pay because we've outsourced a considerable amount of our bargaining leverage. We've already sold that flying and since we are not taking it back, we can't sell it again. When you count code share and Connection, we perform a minority of Delta flying. Like Lufthansia, SwissAir, and Air Canada, we don't have a monopoly on our company's labor any more. At some point our threat to strike will be met with giggles.
Might as well face it, without leverage, we will get some version of a reasonable raise increase, in line with the Company's performance and market conditions (including representational losers, like US Air's crappy rates). Taking any positions before seeing what United/CAL and American's contract looks like is premature.
What we can, and should, focus on right now is scope. We need to build consensus in support of unity (all Delta flying performed by Delta pilots). Our best negotiating position is indicating to the company that we think our jobs have value.
That's the plan that will give us the leverage to achieve C2K rates and more.
We are not going to restore our pay because we've outsourced a considerable amount of our bargaining leverage. We've already sold that flying and since we are not taking it back, we can't sell it again. When you count code share and Connection, we perform a minority of Delta flying. Like Lufthansia, SwissAir, and Air Canada, we don't have a monopoly on our company's labor any more. At some point our threat to strike will be met with giggles.
Might as well face it, without leverage, we will get some version of a reasonable raise increase, in line with the Company's performance and market conditions (including representational losers, like US Air's crappy rates). Taking any positions before seeing what United/CAL and American's contract looks like is premature.
What we can, and should, focus on right now is scope. We need to build consensus in support of unity (all Delta flying performed by Delta pilots). Our best negotiating position is indicating to the company that we think our jobs have value.
That's the plan that will give us the leverage to achieve C2K rates and more.
12-07-2010 | 08:25 AM
#3336
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 20,870
Likes: 188
I think this depends on whether or not EVERYTHING is retroactive to the amendable date. IMO, that is the very first thing we go into negotiations with. R E T R O A C T I V I T Y... to day 1... with interest.
We have never seen any real retro pay in a contract. If the contract runs 5 years late which is fast looking at recent contracts it would mean the company having to write a 5.5 billion dollar check at contract signing. Not very likely.
We have never seen any real retro pay in a contract. If the contract runs 5 years late which is fast looking at recent contracts it would mean the company having to write a 5.5 billion dollar check at contract signing. Not very likely.
12-07-2010 | 08:39 AM
#3337
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 126
Likes: 0
From: Boardroom Chair
I think this depends on whether or not EVERYTHING is retroactive to the amendable date. IMO, that is the very first thing we go into negotiations with. R E T R O A C T I V I T Y... to day 1... with interest.
We have never seen any real retro pay in a contract. If the contract runs 5 years late which is fast looking at recent contracts it would mean the company having to write a 5.5 billion dollar check at contract signing. Not very likely.
We have never seen any real retro pay in a contract. If the contract runs 5 years late which is fast looking at recent contracts it would mean the company having to write a 5.5 billion dollar check at contract signing. Not very likely.
Agreed from an ethical point of view. Companies should not gain from dragging out contract negotiations.
But, politically, it is unlikely ALPA would hold up the Company for full retro when it might result in the headline pay number being lower to account for the size of the retro check. The trend also has been to make retro checks "bonus" money so they are not tied to anything objective and can be allocated subjectively.
So, I'm with you, but politics is politics.
12-07-2010 | 09:24 AM
#3338
Back on TDY
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 12,487
Likes: 0
From: 747-400 Captain
I guess I could turn the question around. What factor has more to do with the current price of your house:
1. What your neighbors are getting?
2. What your house cost (inflation adjusted) 30 years ago?
So yes I am saying that American pilots are asking for too much. How else can you describe it when the NMB tells them to get a clue and then walks away? Tell me what is the end game for the APA when they are not even negotiating? How exactly do you see this panning out? I am seriously looking for answers, because in the world I live in, you don't get a pay raise when you aren't even negotiating.
I have never held that the other contracts are entirely dispositive of what we can get. Certainly we are not going into LCC territory. But if AMR gets a raise and UAL gets a raise it can't hurt. If they stay stuck on the sidelines, then it makes our job just that much harder.
As for your rather long post, the second one, I don't blame you but you don't really seem to understand the negotiating process. I don't understand the talk about the non-contract employees so I will just leave it. The second point is about the company affording a raise. The economics of the parent company are closely tied to employee compensation and if you don't believe that then you need to study your history a little. Now, what the company can afford and what they say they can afford are two different things. That is why we have professional economists from ALPA National and why we usually hire investment bankers to help determine what they really can afford and not what they claim they can afford.
On the third point, companies generally try to extend the negotiating process when they are making hay as they lose leverage. Conversely, labor tries to drag things out when things are bleaker because they lose leverage. The real length of negotiations can be determined mostly by the NMB and when they release you for self help. That is when the rubber hits the road. The NMB will not release you if there is little hope that the 30 day cooling off period or a short strike will resolve the differences.
By law, they are required to act to try to keep the planes moving, not shut them down. In the case of AMR, the APA ask is so high in relation to the finances of AMR (which is losing money this year) that there is no hope of a strike resolving the situation, unless the APA secretly has a plan B of asking for a lot less. That is why the NMB said they are no longer wasting their time with this negotiation unless the APA makes some changes. You can complain about that all you want, but this is the railway labor act, I didn't write and I don't like it, but I am just a pilot and I can't really do anything about it.
As for the public statements, they are pretty much worthless. Any management type knows the recent history and they know pilots are upset. Making some public declaration of support is not very useful. However, ALPA is providing their leading expertise in economic analysis and negotiating strategy (for a price) to the APA to help them move the ball down the field. UAL has the full support of ALPA and has received authorization from the contingency fund to ensure that they have enough resources to make it through their negotiations. That is the power that comes from a large unified organization and not a bunch of little independent fiefdoms.
On a side note, it is quite common to back track on negotiations when situations change. So yes, you can ask for a little and then ask for more later. They will complain about it, but tough toenails.
I feel that we are going around and around here, and maybe there will be no meeting of the minds. Arguments like "well we used to make that" or "we need to be able to buy a car a month" will not win any points with the NMB or anyone else involved. They really are emotional arguments devoid of business analysis. The world changes and nothing stays the same.
I have done a great deal of union work simply because I wanted to be part of the solution and not sit on the sidelines. We all do our part, but in the end there are real limits in the world. If you push back two hours late for your DTW-LGA flight, you will try to make up time. However, you are going to be late no matter what you do, no matter how hard you try, no matter how badly you want it. We live in a world with limits.
1. What your neighbors are getting?
2. What your house cost (inflation adjusted) 30 years ago?
So yes I am saying that American pilots are asking for too much. How else can you describe it when the NMB tells them to get a clue and then walks away? Tell me what is the end game for the APA when they are not even negotiating? How exactly do you see this panning out? I am seriously looking for answers, because in the world I live in, you don't get a pay raise when you aren't even negotiating.
I have never held that the other contracts are entirely dispositive of what we can get. Certainly we are not going into LCC territory. But if AMR gets a raise and UAL gets a raise it can't hurt. If they stay stuck on the sidelines, then it makes our job just that much harder.
As for your rather long post, the second one, I don't blame you but you don't really seem to understand the negotiating process. I don't understand the talk about the non-contract employees so I will just leave it. The second point is about the company affording a raise. The economics of the parent company are closely tied to employee compensation and if you don't believe that then you need to study your history a little. Now, what the company can afford and what they say they can afford are two different things. That is why we have professional economists from ALPA National and why we usually hire investment bankers to help determine what they really can afford and not what they claim they can afford.
On the third point, companies generally try to extend the negotiating process when they are making hay as they lose leverage. Conversely, labor tries to drag things out when things are bleaker because they lose leverage. The real length of negotiations can be determined mostly by the NMB and when they release you for self help. That is when the rubber hits the road. The NMB will not release you if there is little hope that the 30 day cooling off period or a short strike will resolve the differences.
By law, they are required to act to try to keep the planes moving, not shut them down. In the case of AMR, the APA ask is so high in relation to the finances of AMR (which is losing money this year) that there is no hope of a strike resolving the situation, unless the APA secretly has a plan B of asking for a lot less. That is why the NMB said they are no longer wasting their time with this negotiation unless the APA makes some changes. You can complain about that all you want, but this is the railway labor act, I didn't write and I don't like it, but I am just a pilot and I can't really do anything about it.
As for the public statements, they are pretty much worthless. Any management type knows the recent history and they know pilots are upset. Making some public declaration of support is not very useful. However, ALPA is providing their leading expertise in economic analysis and negotiating strategy (for a price) to the APA to help them move the ball down the field. UAL has the full support of ALPA and has received authorization from the contingency fund to ensure that they have enough resources to make it through their negotiations. That is the power that comes from a large unified organization and not a bunch of little independent fiefdoms.
On a side note, it is quite common to back track on negotiations when situations change. So yes, you can ask for a little and then ask for more later. They will complain about it, but tough toenails.
I feel that we are going around and around here, and maybe there will be no meeting of the minds. Arguments like "well we used to make that" or "we need to be able to buy a car a month" will not win any points with the NMB or anyone else involved. They really are emotional arguments devoid of business analysis. The world changes and nothing stays the same.
I have done a great deal of union work simply because I wanted to be part of the solution and not sit on the sidelines. We all do our part, but in the end there are real limits in the world. If you push back two hours late for your DTW-LGA flight, you will try to make up time. However, you are going to be late no matter what you do, no matter how hard you try, no matter how badly you want it. We live in a world with limits.
"Brevity is the soul of wit." - William Shakespeare
Try learning to say more with less words.
Carl
12-07-2010 | 09:28 AM
#3339
Back on TDY
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 12,487
Likes: 0
From: 747-400 Captain
"Do you think we should ask for fire?"
"I don't know. If we ask, God might get mad at us."
"But, He gave it to us already."
"Yes. But, He can't afford to give it to us again. Market forces, you know."
"How do you know He can't afford it? I've heard He's pretty creative."
"Look. Even if He did give it to us, we don't want it. If we got it, God's other creatures would be so jealous of us, they would destroy the world."
"So, we should wait until the bears get it?"
"Yup."
"Humm......"
Carl
12-07-2010 | 09:32 AM
#3340
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2009
Posts: 1,044
Likes: 3
From: Lowest Pay I Could Find
I think this depends on whether or not EVERYTHING is retroactive to the amendable date. IMO, that is the very first thing we go into negotiations with. R E T R O A C T I V I T Y... to day 1... with interest.
We have never seen any real retro pay in a contract. If the contract runs 5 years late which is fast looking at recent contracts it would mean the company having to write a 5.5 billion dollar check at contract signing. Not very likely.
We have never seen any real retro pay in a contract. If the contract runs 5 years late which is fast looking at recent contracts it would mean the company having to write a 5.5 billion dollar check at contract signing. Not very likely.
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