How long do you think it would take being based in ACY? I have a pretty good job right now and would have to take a 70% pay cut to be 15 minutes from my house. Is it worth it?

 

ACY is very senior at the top and very junior at the bottom the CA list. Right now it's about 7 years to upgrade. Realistically, for someone getting hired right now i would guess 6-8 years depending on the scheduled growth and if it really happens.

 

You're playing a dangerous game thinking of going to an airline based solely on a domicile. Bases come & go all the time. JMHO.

 

If he truly is an XJT pilot and not a baiter on here, he is probably more aware of that now than at any time in the past.

 

Very true. The Woodlands crowd is unhappy right now.

 

Thanks guys, I thought it might be that long...can’t afford that kind of FO pay for six years. Looks like I’m still gona have to wait out the 65ers. I'm in no rush to go anywhere in this econ...but thought I should at least ask

 

You're going to make a career decision based on a couple of yahoo's responses on a web forum? Really? Well, you might as well hear one more...

I'm a glass-half-full kinda guy, so I may see things differently here. Based on the a/c the company claims are on order and what years they claim we will get them says the 2015 captains haven't been hired yet. BUT...

Don't ever look to history of upgrades to tell the story of the future of upgrades. I had a buddy that went to AirTran a few years ago solely based on the possibility of a 3.5 year upgrade...oops. So it can go either way. We don't have many people on our seniority list that have DOHs between 2001 and 2007. Our actual upgrade times could go from 8-9 years to 4 years quickly.

Are you the type that is left seat or bust? Then you probably should stay put where you are. How is your pay rate anyway? If it's what I looked up as a senior guy at XJT, then you'll only be $7/hour less within 5 years ($90/hr vs. $97/hr). How's your quality of life? Most would tell you our's beats any regional's- especially for our guys living in base.

I wish you the best of luck, but I'd advise you to do a little more homework before jumping to a conclusion.

 

A.K.A. the Woodlands mafia

 

Not sure how senior you are @ ExpressJet, but @ most any airline, Spirit included, first year pay is gonna' be rough. That's a given.

I re-ran the the #'s (messed them up the first time, whoops!). Assuming you get min RSV guarantee, the current APC upgrade times hold, and you take the first upgrade available, it would take a 10 year XJT CA ___ years to break even @ the following carriers:

• Spirit = 11 years
• UPS = 2 years*
• Delta = 7 years (5 years NB FO average, then go to WB FO average)
• Southwest = 4 years*
• United = 15 years (5 years NB FO, 5 years 75/76 FO, 5 years WB FO)

*The high min guarantee of UPS and Southwest, coupled with their higher hourly rates, really skews their #'s, as you'll likely break the lower min guarantees of Spirit, Delta, and United regularly, but that's the problem with forecasting the future - you'll never be able to model it perfectly.

You will make less the first couple years, then you'll make more, but it takes a couple more years to 'catch-up' the $ that you lost, especially that first year. For example, an 8 year Spirit FO brings in more than a 17 year XJT CA, but it takes 4 more years to break even b/c of the lower earning first 7 years @ Spirit. After the first year @ Spirit (which is hard living), our hypothetical 10 year XJT CA will take a median pay cut of 15%, with the highest pay cut in year 3, @ 31%, and the lowest, in year 7, of only 2%.

Honestly, if your costs are so high you can't afford the first 6 years @ Spirit, than you might not be able to afford to leave XJT at all. Essentially, if you can't live off $35,000 for the first year and can't take a modest pay cut for around 5 years, you really can't afford to leave the left seat of an RJ for the right seat of most any 121 carrier based on min guarantee. For me, I never plan for more than min guarantee, and then I always know I'll be alright.

My Spirit #'s came from their 2010 contract, while all my other #'s came from APC. My humble pie comes from 'Swedish'.

Planning career moves based only on anticipated income is foolish. There's much more to it, of course (QOL, retirement, company stability, culture, etc.). How much importance you put to mathematical financial modeling is up to you.

 

I know you said you ran the numbers, and this is apples to oranges since he is asking about Spirit.

At UPS he would break even in the second year.
At guarantee
10 yr XJT -80/hr = 72,000
11 yr XJT -82/hr = 73,800
Total - 145,800

UPS 2011 rates
1 yr UPS - 37/hr = 36,000
2 yr UPS - 143/hr = 139,400
Total - 175,400