Just curious Skyhigh, but if you had stayed at Horizon, what would be your seniority today? How many years and what equipment would you be flying?

 

Sky, you may think that CAL and SWA are rare exceptions never to be duplicated in the future, but that is not entirely the case. Look at Delta and their retirement numbers. The have 600+ retirements PER YEAR projected to start a few years from now. That is 10% of the workforce retiring PER YEAR for a while. Who knows what will actually happen by then, but the point is, the potential is there. Always will be. And if it isn't Delta, it will be someone else.

Edit - the retirement at Delta peaks at around 500 per year not 600. But you see the point.

 

>>My position is that SWA will have experienced the majority of its currently planned growth within the next few years.<<

Your position is wrong. It has no basis on fact or reality.

SWA is hammering Boeing to build a next next generation 737. Since the 737 is the world's most popular aircraft and SWA is Boeing's biggest and most financially secure customer, such replacement aircraft is pretty much a given. As soon as that happens SWA will fill the order book. SWA still has hundreds of aircraft on the books already.
SWA's business plan is to average 5-10% growth a year ad-infinititum. There will be peaks and valley's but they will average out over the years.
SWA used to be strictly short haul. The other airlines forced SWA into the long haul market with the change of the passenger tax rules. Long haul has been phenomonally successful for SWA and it is a market in which SWA is just scratching the surface. Less than half of SWA's current cities are what they call "fully developed". Every new city has 50 or so dots to connect and that takes years. One marketing person told an upgrade class that every new aircraft coming online for the next two years could go just to Denver and the airline would do fine. He also said that there are currently over 60 cities that are actively petitioning and bidding incentives for service by SWA.

 

Excellent post - thanks for sharing your insights into SWA. What do you mean by 50 dots? 50 destinations from that city? What about Charlotte - is SWA going to start flying there? I know JBlue started a few months back.



-LAFF

 

First and foremost SWA is a great airline.

BUT, never believe what comes out of mgmt's mouth...

SWA has plenty room for growth, but many obstacles as well. I don't have the time to list them all.

Before SWA gets to 6,000 pilots we will see some probs!

 

At least you did slightly better than to just call him a dumbass...

 

[QUOTE=Widow's Son;56919]>>

SWA is hammering Boeing to build a next next generation 737. QUOTE]


I hope not. The 737 is a 60's design. They've updated a few things since the early 60's, but they've kept too many things the same (thanks to the FAA and same-type ratings). I loved flying the 737, but flying a -800 or -900 was a mixture of old and new. "Old-style" instruments displayed on glass? Old crappy overhead systems panels. Toggle switches? Under powered! 167 passengers in a 737 is too many. The 757/767 is too old for me (1980's). Boeing needs a narrow body replacement like the 737, but make it NEW. A small, narrow body 787 would be nice. I'm sure SWA wants a 737 version to keep everything similair, but at some point they need to move on. Nine models was enough (737-100 - 900).

 

Now I've never flown a plane in my life come to think of it, so take what I'm about to say with a few grains of salt..heck make it a TBL spoon to be on the safe side of things. I can't directly comment on any point being discussed on this topic by polar opposites with their pro/con pilot stories. I am however somewhat of a professional people reader having my university advanced degree in clinical psychology and psychoanalysis....and I did stay in the holiday inn express last night. As someone about to turn 30 who has often looked in the proverbial toy shop window for a possible career in aviation as a commercial airline pilot, I have to say I do appreciate the diversity of everyone's viewpoints on this forum. Speaking solely as an aspiring pilot (most likely as a hobbiest, don't worry SkyHigh) I have gleaned many helpful industry insites from reading the various topics and vivacious bantering between winged pilots and those who have been subsequently clipped.
For what it is worth SkyHigh, I'm sorry you have had to make the decission to change careers away from something you obviously loved doing. Nothing is without its fair share of problems and risks to be sure. The motivations behind your leaving Horizon were justified because you clearly thought it over and made a decission you felt was the right thing to do at the time. You did what you thought was right..that should be enough for anyone. It doesn't mean you are not allowed to regret it later in life. We all regret things in life, the missed opportunities, the one that got away, or making a sacrafice. If I may use a simple analogy that works for some of us. Imagine for a moment that you are training as an athlete for a big race. You walk down to the starting line and see the other runners. They are in good shape and you start thinking you are going to loose the race. At this point people tend to act differently as to what to do next. There are those who will go Ballz-out and run the race and maybe fail terribly and there are those who will walk off the field before the pistel goes off. Why? Because it is only human nature to justify quiting rather than risk failure. It is easier to shallow because the image of our dreams has yet to be tarnished. But it often results in regret later in life. If we might remember the words of Robert Kennedy " Only those who dare to fail greatly can ever achieve greatly". (somewhat easier said than done when you have a silver spoon in your mouth..but regardless). Maybe that is why you live vicariously on this forum with your honest and comendable intentions to inform others of your view towards the industry. I think you would argue your veiws are accurate. Others see them as negative. Maybe both are right. It may be a way to project your regret of making that painful decission some time ago. I'm not hear to judge anyone. You left because you felt your responsibilites as a husband and father would be better served from an alternative career. There is no shame in that and I think we all should consider the sacrifice SkyHigh has made for his family and commend him for it.
At the same time I'm glad to see pilots who are still happy doing what they love. It is crutial for a young person to see both sides of this issue and are then left alone to make their own minds up as to whether to pursue a career as a pilot or not. Keep up the good discussion it does help people.
Jes

 

Excellent question! Probably would be a CRJ captain at approx. $100K/yr. (plus 100% up to 10% 401k match).

 

I am still good friends with most of the people who I had in my new hire class during the summer of 1998 at Horizon Air and none of them are flying anything other than the Dash 8-200. They faithfully report that they are earning the 52-54K that I have mentioned. They also tell me that they have been hammered with 4 and 5 day trips for the last few years.

After all these years they are beginning to develop the Horizon blank stare as acceptance and empty field myopia sets in.

SkyHigh