US/DL Slot Swap Approved
10-13-2011, 06:11 AM
#61
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2008
Posts: 19,273
Originally Posted by Bucking Bar
He meant because there is no international network out of LGA.
US Air's network is being managed for a merger, just as Delta's is. When you see them aligning routes, it gets scary for the line employees.
With the 757, Delta could do some close in international out of LGA. New York needs some form of a convenient connection from LGA to JFK.
US Air's network is being managed for a merger, just as Delta's is. When you see them aligning routes, it gets scary for the line employees.
With the 757, Delta could do some close in international out of LGA. New York needs some form of a convenient connection from LGA to JFK.
10-13-2011, 06:14 AM
#62
Can't abide NAI
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: Douglas Aerospace post production Flight Test & Work Around Engineering bulletin dissembler
Posts: 11,990
Originally Posted by sailingfun
You can't do international without customs facilities. International has to be JFK.
Of course, several Senators would chime in here and say "yeah, but, you fly to Puerto Rico from there."
10-13-2011, 06:18 AM
#63
No longer cares
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: 767er Captain
Posts: 12,109
Originally Posted by gloopy
Their model has many elements, but the main one is to be a domestic powerhouse. They can't fulfill their manifest destiny without a massive NYC presence. The paultry LGA and token EWR presence they have isn't going to cut it. They can't do it "organically" anymore. Its too late. They had their chance when JFK was a ghost town and they blew it. Now they will have to make a far more ambitious move or be locked out of ever having a significant presence in the most vital market in the country.
They are the biggest domestic airline in the world. NYC is the biggest, and most vital, domestic market in the world. SWA has a tiny NYC presence. A legacy fragmentation or liquidation or buying JB are the only ways SWA can ever get a significant share of NYC traffic.
The failed model of distant secondary airports to serve major markets is in the past. ISP won't cut it and SWA knows that.
Fares are low all over the place and SWA's costs aren't what they used to be. The level of presence they have only affords them the ability to do extremely limited service relative to numerous other NYC airlines like DL, AA, JB, UCAL, etc. To give NYC customers a significant market network with the level of NYC presence SWA has will require a massive percentage of customers to have to change planes in a SWA hub. That won't work anymore. SWA isn't cheap like they used to be. Far from it actually. And NYC customers can enjoy far superior networks from DL, JB, AA and UCAL. SWA needs NYC and there are very, very few ways for them to get what they need.
As for SWA being "too busy" for another integration move, JB is 100% non union. That puts SWA more in the driver's seat than any other move they could make short of picking up the pieces of a legacy liquidation. That appears unlikely at best. SWA has an amemic and flimsy presence in the most crucial market in the country and they are out of airspeed and ideas getting that organically. JB is the only realistic way for them to be a player in the number one market in the nation. If they can't/won't/don't then they will likely forever be a distant 4th or 5th rate choice in the number 1 market, which is fine with me. I just don't see them being OK with that.
They are the biggest domestic airline in the world. NYC is the biggest, and most vital, domestic market in the world. SWA has a tiny NYC presence. A legacy fragmentation or liquidation or buying JB are the only ways SWA can ever get a significant share of NYC traffic.
The failed model of distant secondary airports to serve major markets is in the past. ISP won't cut it and SWA knows that.
Fares are low all over the place and SWA's costs aren't what they used to be. The level of presence they have only affords them the ability to do extremely limited service relative to numerous other NYC airlines like DL, AA, JB, UCAL, etc. To give NYC customers a significant market network with the level of NYC presence SWA has will require a massive percentage of customers to have to change planes in a SWA hub. That won't work anymore. SWA isn't cheap like they used to be. Far from it actually. And NYC customers can enjoy far superior networks from DL, JB, AA and UCAL. SWA needs NYC and there are very, very few ways for them to get what they need.
As for SWA being "too busy" for another integration move, JB is 100% non union. That puts SWA more in the driver's seat than any other move they could make short of picking up the pieces of a legacy liquidation. That appears unlikely at best. SWA has an amemic and flimsy presence in the most crucial market in the country and they are out of airspeed and ideas getting that organically. JB is the only realistic way for them to be a player in the number one market in the nation. If they can't/won't/don't then they will likely forever be a distant 4th or 5th rate choice in the number 1 market, which is fine with me. I just don't see them being OK with that.
Last edited by tsquare; 10-13-2011 at 06:30 AM.
10-13-2011, 06:24 AM
#64
Happy to be here
Joined APC: Jun 2006
Position: A-320A
Posts: 18,563
Originally Posted by Flyby1206
That is quite the gradiose view to say the least. Honestly, there is no way DAL will acquire AMR unless it is just cleaning up a few pieces(MIA, LAX) during a Ch7 liquidation, which AMR is a LONGGGG ways from.
The pieces in motion are JB, LCC and AMR. I dont see DAL being a player in this particular puzzle.
I could see a JB/LCC tie up, and that entity joining the oneworld alliance and becoming a primarily domestic carrier, since AA has been having troubles with the short haul markets. JB/LCC would dominate the east coast BOS/JFK/PHL/DCA/CLT/FLL.
AMR/JB tie up would make some sense, in terms of the JFK market, but leaves LCC out of the picture.
AMR/LCC tie up makes less sense in terms of network strength, and also leaves JB in the cold.
AMR/JB/LCC would be too big of a bite to handle at once, and likely requiring lots of divestiture of LGA/DCA slots.
The pieces in motion are JB, LCC and AMR. I dont see DAL being a player in this particular puzzle.
I could see a JB/LCC tie up, and that entity joining the oneworld alliance and becoming a primarily domestic carrier, since AA has been having troubles with the short haul markets. JB/LCC would dominate the east coast BOS/JFK/PHL/DCA/CLT/FLL.
AMR/JB tie up would make some sense, in terms of the JFK market, but leaves LCC out of the picture.
AMR/LCC tie up makes less sense in terms of network strength, and also leaves JB in the cold.
AMR/JB/LCC would be too big of a bite to handle at once, and likely requiring lots of divestiture of LGA/DCA slots.
DAL would not get ATI on all of AMR, and probably B6. I agree with that.
If AMR were to file, I highly suspect that there would be many offers given to the creditors from places like DAL. That is the point. AMR really enters uncharted waters if they file. Better for them if they can do a deal prior to CH11.
The news wires are reporting that AMR and APA are close to a deal. If that is true, it may mean that AMR can finally go after B6. If that happens, LCC becomes the carrier that is parted out.
A hostile takeover is very difficult and leaves a lot of costs in place. That should not go unnoticed. A takeover or partial asset sale in CH11 is a totally different story. CH11 filings generally take 18 months and after six, DIP can be given to the creditors under the new laws.
10-13-2011, 06:27 AM
#65
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2008
Posts: 19,273
Originally Posted by Clear Right
Your gonna have to explain that one too me. B6 is a highly successful company and very profitable. Don't think they are interested in a fragmentation or a merger. Are you contending a hostile takeover, not likely. JetBlue is no AirTran, don't see the Board of Directors selling unless huge premium on stock price, which would cost either airline AA or SWA almost half their cash reserves with big debt payments and aircraft orders on the horizon. Just not financially smart for either player at this time.
10-13-2011, 06:33 AM
#66
No longer cares
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: 767er Captain
Posts: 12,109
Originally Posted by Bucking Bar
He meant because there is no international network out of LGA.
US Air's network is being managed for a merger, just as Delta's is. When you see them aligning routes, it gets scary for the line employees.
With the 757, Delta could do some close in international out of LGA. New York needs some form of a convenient connection from LGA to JFK.
US Air's network is being managed for a merger, just as Delta's is. When you see them aligning routes, it gets scary for the line employees.
With the 757, Delta could do some close in international out of LGA. New York needs some form of a convenient connection from LGA to JFK.
10-13-2011, 06:35 AM
#67
Can't abide NAI
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: Douglas Aerospace post production Flight Test & Work Around Engineering bulletin dissembler
Posts: 11,990
Originally Posted by acl65pilot
The news wires are reporting that AMR and APA are close to a deal. If that is true, it may mean that AMR can finally go after B6. If that happens, LCC becomes the carrier that is parted out.
Originally Posted by Business Week March 9, 2011
American Airlines Inc., the third- largest U.S. carrier, is planning debt to take advantage of close to record-low yields even as returns on airline bonds trail the overall market.
The airline plans to sell $1 billion of debt secured by routes, takeoff and landing slots and rights to use space in airport terminals, Fort Worth, Texas-based parent company AMR Corp. (AMR) said in a March 7 statement. The five-year notes may be issued today, said a person familiar with the transaction.
Airline debt has returned 2.1 percent this year, compared with the 3.7 percent gain on overall high-yield debt,
The airline plans to sell $1 billion of debt secured by routes, takeoff and landing slots and rights to use space in airport terminals, Fort Worth, Texas-based parent company AMR Corp. (AMR) said in a March 7 statement. The five-year notes may be issued today, said a person familiar with the transaction.
Airline debt has returned 2.1 percent this year, compared with the 3.7 percent gain on overall high-yield debt,
10-13-2011, 06:36 AM
#68
Line Holder
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: M88A
Posts: 87
Originally Posted by Bucking Bar
Duh', I should have had that thought.
Of course, several Senators would chime in here and say "yeah, but, you fly to Puerto Rico from there."
Of course, several Senators would chime in here and say "yeah, but, you fly to Puerto Rico from there."
10-13-2011, 06:37 AM
#69
No longer cares
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: 767er Captain
Posts: 12,109
Originally Posted by Bucking Bar
ACL's, wet dreams might begin with Pippa Middleon, but the climax is always Delta in DFW. He's right that AA will have to be fast under the new CH11 rules, but I see AA coming out of this kicking butt and has a fleet plan to support that hypothesis.I worked for JB management a few years ago. Unless something has changed (and money does change things) they would have absolutely NO interest in a LCC tie up. They feel they can beat anyone in the open market and LCC would just be buying problems. Better to grow organically. They might do a code share tie up.
One characteristic that the growing airlines have is a genuine pride and confidence in their operation. When you are winning market share organically & making money, there is no need for a merger. (that sentence says a lot about Delta and even, Southwest)
One characteristic that the growing airlines have is a genuine pride and confidence in their operation. When you are winning market share organically & making money, there is no need for a merger. (that sentence says a lot about Delta and even, Southwest)
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