DAL Top End Scope
05-09-2012 | 07:00 AM
#21
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From: Boeing Hearing and Ergonomics Lab Rat, Night Shift
Emirates "little tinpot EGO bubble" fleet for perspective:
19 777-200 (more than Delta!)
82 777-300 (with 78 more on order)
21 A380 (with orders for a fleet of 90)
plus a handful of A330/340s
160 777 and 90 A380s aren't just all going to fly to and from DXB are they?
With the fleet they have and the cost structure they are operating under, they will have the ability to transform most other global international airlines into niche players in distinct geographic markets. To Emirates a 7ER or a 757 let alone an A320 or 737 is nothing more than an RJ...
No need to touch when you can codeshare/buy your way in...
They have enough cash to just buy into other airlines, and are on record as of last week to do more of that.
For Europe feed they already bought into Air Berlin...
For now they are using codeshare in most places to get the feed: JetBlue in the US, Virgin Australia down under. Isn't there an upcoming Virgin America IPO?
Cheers
George
19 777-200 (more than Delta!)
82 777-300 (with 78 more on order)
21 A380 (with orders for a fleet of 90)
plus a handful of A330/340s
160 777 and 90 A380s aren't just all going to fly to and from DXB are they?
With the fleet they have and the cost structure they are operating under, they will have the ability to transform most other global international airlines into niche players in distinct geographic markets. To Emirates a 7ER or a 757 let alone an A320 or 737 is nothing more than an RJ...
They have enough cash to just buy into other airlines, and are on record as of last week to do more of that.
For Europe feed they already bought into Air Berlin...
For now they are using codeshare in most places to get the feed: JetBlue in the US, Virgin Australia down under. Isn't there an upcoming Virgin America IPO?
Cheers
George
05-09-2012 | 07:34 AM
#22
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They have enough cash to just buy into other airlines, and are on record as of last week to do more of that.
For now they are using codeshare in most places to get the feed: JetBlue in the US, Virgin Australia down under. Isn't there an upcoming Virgin America IPO?
Cheers
George
For now they are using codeshare in most places to get the feed: JetBlue in the US, Virgin Australia down under. Isn't there an upcoming Virgin America IPO?
Cheers
George
"Emirates' network within the United States will soon extend to almost 20 cities through our partner JetBlue, making flying to the U.S. from the Gulf, Middle East, Africa, the Indian Subcontinent and the Far East smoother and more convenient than ever before," said Thierry Antinori, executive vice president of passenger sales worldwide. "JetBlue shares our passion for innovation and best-in-class services, and we look forward to continuing to grow the relationship as we seek new ways to build our presence within the United States," continued Mr Antinori.
05-09-2012 | 07:45 AM
#23
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From: Boeing Hearing and Ergonomics Lab Rat, Night Shift
Would not surprise me one bit to see Emirates buy part of JetBlue. I think B6 is up to 18 International Partners, Emirates may want to grab a piece of B6 to enhance their Domestic feed.
"Emirates' network within the United States will soon extend to almost 20 cities through our partner JetBlue, making flying to the U.S. from the Gulf, Middle East, Africa, the Indian Subcontinent and the Far East smoother and more convenient than ever before," said Thierry Antinori, executive vice president of passenger sales worldwide. "JetBlue shares our passion for innovation and best-in-class services, and we look forward to continuing to grow the relationship as we seek new ways to build our presence within the United States," continued Mr Antinori.
"Emirates' network within the United States will soon extend to almost 20 cities through our partner JetBlue, making flying to the U.S. from the Gulf, Middle East, Africa, the Indian Subcontinent and the Far East smoother and more convenient than ever before," said Thierry Antinori, executive vice president of passenger sales worldwide. "JetBlue shares our passion for innovation and best-in-class services, and we look forward to continuing to grow the relationship as we seek new ways to build our presence within the United States," continued Mr Antinori.
Cheers
George
05-09-2012 | 07:49 AM
#24
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From: CA
OK, maybe I am naive, but isn't the easy answer to require ALPA approval of all future: JV/Codeshare/Revenue Sharing/Cabotage/Foreign Ownership etc? It seems completely impossible to write comprehensive contractual language to cover every eventuality. There needs to be some way to look at each individual proposal and how it effects the seniority list at Delta. Is giving ALPA a say in the process something that management would never agree to? Is it something that simply would never fly with management?
05-09-2012 | 08:04 AM
#25
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From: Boeing Hearing and Ergonomics Lab Rat, Night Shift
OK, maybe I am naive, but isn't the easy answer to require ALPA approval of all future: JV/Codeshare/Revenue Sharing/Cabotage/Foreign Ownership etc? It seems completely impossible to write comprehensive contractual language to cover every eventuality. There needs to be some way to look at each individual proposal and how it effects the seniority list at Delta. Is giving ALPA a say in the process something that management would never agree to? Is it something that simply would never fly with management?
We opened the hole...
Now we need to plug it.
The problem with all these agreements is not the initial bilateral agreement but how Delta then combines them with other JV/codeshare/dci agreements to operationally benefit, but at the detriment to the intent of each individual agreement.
Over Simplified Example:
DCI = more big delta jets by providing feed from places you don't want to fly.
AK = more big Delta jets to Asia and Australia, we can't make money on the west coast anyways
AFKLM JV = More big jets across the Atlantic more smaller Delta jets flying the Dutch and French to BHM
VA JV = We need a partner or the LAX SYD flight is toast
Each one of these agreements individually promises to provide a benefit to Delta pilots.
But what happens when Delta decides to feed AFKLM with AK?
Delta still gets money because the AFKLM JV is "metal neutral."
It doesn't matter what it says on the side of the jet, the JV parties simply pool then split the profits.
Delta get money from the AFKLM JV profit
AS gets revenue from the codeshare passenger
Who is missing here?
But what happens when Delta decides to feed AFKLM with DCI?
Delta get money form the AFKLM JV profit
DCI gets paid to fly Delta passenger.
The only saving grace is that on their side of the pond, we benefit from their regionals...
Ironically the straight codeshare, should be the most benign out of all of these. but because we don't have language that requires reciprocity, many of our code-shares are asymmetric...
Instead of I scratch your back, you scratch my back, you have Hawaiian using JetBlue in NYC to provide feed for flights to the islands, China Airlines our Skyteam partner using Virgin America in LAX to connect passengers on to US destinations...Virgin Australia codesharing with Alaska to provide feed for LAX...
Anyone can show you metrics how each individual agreement benefits the Delta pilots. We have no measurements on how combining these agreement affects us.
Cheers
George
Last edited by georgetg; 05-09-2012 at 08:25 AM.
05-09-2012 | 08:15 AM
#26
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From: DAL 330
How much of that 5-10% swing in our favor was going to happen anyway though? Many 50's are going to be parked. The company wants them parked. I'm against giving more DC-9 replacment jets to DCI to enable them to park more 50 seaters a few years faster. Also eventually, and at least for a little bit, the production balance from AF/KLM/AZ will swing back in our favor by several percentage points. We will get much or all of that 5-10% swing anyway eventually.
To even entertain the threat that the company will offshore the entire holding company to the Emirates ponzi scheme or whatever if we don't give in to more 76 seaters at DCI is pure nonsense. To think they have that leverage in the first place, and then to think that if they do that they will completely give it up just for more 76 seaters is even less logical.
Production balance can't be the only or even the primary yardstick we use. If that were true, we could increase the balance dramatically by insourcing all RJ's but outsourcing all 777's and 747's. Give up a few dozen planes and get a few hundred planes. What an epic block hour win, right? If production balance is the key as some claim, then outsourcing the top of the pyramid would produce the most bang for the buck. By far. So should we do that? And I'm not talking nebulous JV's...think Mesa with super premium widebodies, bidding to be the lowest among Kalitta, North American and 2 or 3 non union first year start ups, right here in the USA at Delta Connection International. Shouldn't that be the goal, as long as the production balance increases?
If not, why is it OK to sell management the lower end of the DC-9 range of mainline flying but not OK to sell management fewer pilot positions in larger equipment?
Selling flying to protect flying won't work long term. If the company has the leverage to shred the pilot group with ease with foreign labor busters, does anyone really think they will give all that up and give us peace in our time just for more 76 seaters?
All areas of scope have to be improved IMHO or we start the clock and work diligently towards a release to self help in full section 6 negotiations and strike for as long as it takes to fix these career oriented issues. The RLA is a long and unfair process but our CBA with early opening and accelerated timetables to mediation put us years ahead already. Putting a dirty infected band aid on the wound and having to deal with next contract with even more core domestic lift outsourced...when you KNOW they will want more large RJ's just like they do today...is a very poor long term stratedgy.
To even entertain the threat that the company will offshore the entire holding company to the Emirates ponzi scheme or whatever if we don't give in to more 76 seaters at DCI is pure nonsense. To think they have that leverage in the first place, and then to think that if they do that they will completely give it up just for more 76 seaters is even less logical.
Production balance can't be the only or even the primary yardstick we use. If that were true, we could increase the balance dramatically by insourcing all RJ's but outsourcing all 777's and 747's. Give up a few dozen planes and get a few hundred planes. What an epic block hour win, right? If production balance is the key as some claim, then outsourcing the top of the pyramid would produce the most bang for the buck. By far. So should we do that? And I'm not talking nebulous JV's...think Mesa with super premium widebodies, bidding to be the lowest among Kalitta, North American and 2 or 3 non union first year start ups, right here in the USA at Delta Connection International. Shouldn't that be the goal, as long as the production balance increases?
If not, why is it OK to sell management the lower end of the DC-9 range of mainline flying but not OK to sell management fewer pilot positions in larger equipment?
Selling flying to protect flying won't work long term. If the company has the leverage to shred the pilot group with ease with foreign labor busters, does anyone really think they will give all that up and give us peace in our time just for more 76 seaters?
All areas of scope have to be improved IMHO or we start the clock and work diligently towards a release to self help in full section 6 negotiations and strike for as long as it takes to fix these career oriented issues. The RLA is a long and unfair process but our CBA with early opening and accelerated timetables to mediation put us years ahead already. Putting a dirty infected band aid on the wound and having to deal with next contract with even more core domestic lift outsourced...when you KNOW they will want more large RJ's just like they do today...is a very poor long term stratedgy.
Gloopy,
Referencing what I made red above - I am saying lets improve our section 1overall. I guess you are not counting the Alaska code-share and JV's as "domestic lift outsourced" - I do. Other than that I'm with you, I guess I am a little more pessimistic.
The plan you lay out above that I bolded above sounds a lot like the APA plan of the last 8 years - how did that work out? The dig your heels in and fight it out sounds great, hell I am ready for a strike as I have a second job and some decent savings but I don't think it is in the cards. More importantly looking at all the constraints that we as a pilot group are under - I don't think it would work. I think the threat of a job action could be valuable and while we might win a few battles I don't see us winning the war so to speak. And while winning a Pyrrhic victory might feel good, I think there are better ways to go.
My most important requirement for this contract is to hold the Scope line at 76 seats. Relaxing this would essentially start the doomsday clock for this occupation - because if we can't hold Scope under our current conditions we never will. I would love to reduce 76 seaters but I just don't see it happening.
As far as production balance, yeah the 50 seaters going away may help with the production balance but as George referenced we are already getting clobbered in LAX by Alaska. Hell george was even displaced to SLC.
To me the best metric of our section 1 is how many of the passengers who buy a DAL ticket are flown by DAL pilots. If we can keep this number increasing at all times it would be great for all the DAL Pilots, especially the junior guys.
Scoop
05-09-2012 | 08:18 AM
#27
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From: CA
Well, I guess it all boils down to how much negotiating capital is available to fix everything you are out to fix. It seems to an outsider that the quick agreement that has been much talked about on this board is a pipe dream at best. Is there any way that management is so engaged in the process and accomplishing a quick agreement that they are willing to give away so much of the management friendly language that is currently on the books? It looks like you may in fact be headed down the same extremely long bumpy road that virtually all recent section 6 fights have traveled. One consequence to all the recent consolidation of the industry is that it seems almost inevitable that the threshold of: "substantially interrupt interstate commerce to a degree such as to deprive any section of the country of essential transportation service," will be crossed allowing the presidential emergency board getting involved and complicating the path to self help.
Last edited by shoelu; 05-09-2012 at 08:28 AM.
05-09-2012 | 08:26 AM
#28
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05-09-2012 | 08:41 AM
#30
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That makes two of us. Pretty discouraging considering the "we have an opportunity right now and leverage to do great things".
With what has been put out it appears we are trying to divide a small pie that normally feeds 4, 27 ways. I am really having a hard time wrapping my mind around the fact we are even talking concessionary type rules considering where the company is headed (lots of money). Anyway, if you figure out a way for both of us to punch out and live comfortably right now let me know?
With what has been put out it appears we are trying to divide a small pie that normally feeds 4, 27 ways. I am really having a hard time wrapping my mind around the fact we are even talking concessionary type rules considering where the company is headed (lots of money). Anyway, if you figure out a way for both of us to punch out and live comfortably right now let me know?
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