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Old 01-24-2018, 05:56 PM   #21  
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The rumor I've heard was Republic buying TSH. Keeping Compass aircraft, using the rest of the company for more pilots. I don't know how solid it is I've heard rumblings from both the TSH and Republic sides.
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Old 03-06-2018, 09:22 PM   #22  
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Sorry meant TSH..anybody got some solid insight? Or is it all hearsay
This Friday!
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Old 04-03-2018, 07:38 AM   #23  
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It's sad watching us all spout word for word the same rumors that some white knight is riding in to save us. "The FA's boyfriend's room mate's sister's lesbian girlfriend's father's mistress has a gardener whose step son is a janitor at UAL headquarters and he says it's a done deal." When it doesn't happen it's always the same boogie men who thwarted our seniority number at _________. XYZ airline had first refusal; the FA union; the pilot MEC chairman; SkyWest asked for too much money.
Folks, it isn't happening.
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Old 05-18-2018, 02:19 PM   #24  
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I think there are 2-3 important details missing from this discussion:

1) The regionals exist to provide service to a major at a price the major thinks is worth the cost. If cost weren’t a factor, the major could fly the smaller airplanes directly with its own pilots on a noticeably higher pay scale. The fact that second year FOs at AA, DAL, SWA, or UAL make more than regional captains by a wide margin is a clue on cost.

2) The evolution of the wholly owned regionals gives a major a lot of leverage to protect their brand AND exercise leverage against other regionals in service contract prices, consequences for performance metrics, etc. All with the ability to make changes in the regional support routes and network without having to renegotiate expensive changes to service contracts with a non wholly owned regional.

3) A wholly owned regional has financial backing for growth that no other regional can match, allowing them to make business plays that would otherwise be out of reach. For example, Delta cancels XJT service contract, takes the CRJ900 fleet and gives it to 9E, then let’s 9E hire former XJT pilots to help staff the growth. Those pilots that want to stay in ATL took a huge pay and seniority cut to join 9E, 9E hires street captains that were experienced and easy to train, and there were no messy wrestling matches to merge seniority lists, etc.

If DAL can effectively kill part of a regional by ending its service contract, shift or acquire airplanes for cheap from a regional that no longer has a customer, and then pick up experienced aircrew that are newly available, how long before other non wholly owned regionals that only have one customer die a similar death?


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Old 05-24-2018, 07:01 AM   #25  
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Default Boeing buying Embraer, Airbus owns Bombardier

The larger "regional" jets are coming, from Embraer, Bombardier, Mitsubishi. These aircraft carry as many people as the DC-9 and early model 737s, albeit with somewhat reduced range. Boeing and Airbus have now tossed their considerable weight behind these programs. SOMEONE will be flying these aircraft in those markets where they make sense, because they are about a 20% fuel savings over other aircraft in the niche they were designed for. Currently what is holding them up is scope agreements. I picture one of several things happening.

1. They become entry level mainline flying.
2. Mainline pilots trade away scope to allow these aircraft to be flown by their codeshare regionals.
3. Someone builds a super regional, perhaps cobbled together from a couple of the non-mainline owned regionals, that isn't limited by scope contract language, maybe an Amazon Prime Air, that will dominate this niche of the market.
4. Some mainline with no scope limitations, such as Alaska, has their regional start flying these aircraft.

Nature hates a vacuum and so does business. With Boeing and Airbus now both backing bigger Embraers and Bombardiers, it WILL happen.
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Old 06-11-2018, 10:23 AM   #26  
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The larger "regional" jets are coming, from Embraer, Bombardier, Mitsubishi. These aircraft carry as many people as the DC-9 and early model 737s, albeit with somewhat reduced range. Boeing and Airbus have now tossed their considerable weight behind these programs. SOMEONE will be flying these aircraft in those markets where they make sense, because they are about a 20% fuel savings over other aircraft in the niche they were designed for. Currently what is holding them up is scope agreements. I picture one of several things happening.

1. They become entry level mainline flying.
2. Mainline pilots trade away scope to allow these aircraft to be flown by their codeshare regionals.
3. Someone builds a super regional, perhaps cobbled together from a couple of the non-mainline owned regionals, that isn't limited by scope contract language, maybe an Amazon Prime Air, that will dominate this niche of the market.
4. Some mainline with no scope limitations, such as Alaska, has their regional start flying these aircraft.

Nature hates a vacuum and so does business. With Boeing and Airbus now both backing bigger Embraers and Bombardiers, it WILL happen.
Great forecast... if it were 1997.

Embraer and Bombardier have been building large RJ's for decades. They have been flying at regionals for decades. The mainline flying was shifted to the regionals, and the FFD industry grew and grew until it became over 1/2 the departures each day. They already call the E175 a Guppy Killer, and for good reason. It's taken more mainline 737 and 319 flying down to the regional level than pilot groups anticipated. With companies like AA reducing Lav size to less than an old style phone booth to squeeze in more seats, these E175's are rapidly becoming the much more comfortable plane to fly on for passengers.

You won't see scope relief again. That regional growth should have been more mainline jobs had it not been for the scope giveaway. That contributed to the killing of mainline upgrades and growth for almost 10 years. You won't see additional scope relief.... further, with the pilot shortage over the next ten years there won't be anybody to fly them at the regionals anyway. There will be lots of regional industry contraction and acquisitions... (notice I did not say mergers) the wholly owned regionals will wait for the bankruptcies and buy the other regionals for the staffing, getting all the equipment for pennies on the dollar. Because they buy it in liquidation there won't be merger rights protections for the pilots; they'll simply be furloughed from the dying carrier and offered employment at the new one... recycling themselves at year one pay.
The wholly owned regionals will be given an even larger percentage of flow through mainline hiring as a means to force pilots to fly their regional feed for the opportunity of a mainline job. When 90% of all mainline new hires come directly from their owned regionals, you either fly for the WO career path you want, or fight with everybody else for that small 10% off the street window which will be friends, family and military direct hires. Good luck. This makes the WO regionals the entry level position to get to Delta, United & American.
That is where this is headed. That is how they will keep their WO staffed.
The only mergers could/would be among the several WO to form a single WO, much like AA did previously with all their "eagles."
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Old 06-11-2018, 11:03 AM   #27  
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The wholly owned regionals will be given an even larger percentage of flow through mainline hiring as a means to force pilots to fly their regional feed for the opportunity of a mainline job. When 90% of all mainline new hires come directly from their owned regionals, you either fly for the WO career path you want, or fight with everybody else for that small 10% off the street window which will be friends, family and military direct hires. Good luck. This makes the WO regionals the entry level position to get to Delta, United & American.
That is where this is headed. That is how they will keep their WO staffed.
The only mergers could/would be among the several WO to form a single WO, much like AA did previously with all their "eagles."
Very insightful post, but one question, devil's advocate....

Why would the majors cannibalize their own WO regionals? Why not reduce the flow to a trickle and hire as much as they can from outside of their WO's in order to hurt their competition's WOs?
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Old 06-11-2018, 12:50 PM   #28  
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Very insightful post, but one question, devil's advocate....



Why would the majors cannibalize their own WO regionals? Why not reduce the flow to a trickle and hire as much as they can from outside of their WO's in order to hurt their competition's WOs?


There are a couple of reasons.

The first is that they can more reliably staff their WO if there is a semi-reliable path to the mainline carrier. If you hire a new FO, upgrade that pilot 2-3 years later, then get another 2-4 years before moving on to mainline, it puts the WO in a much more stable position for predicting manning and hiring. That follow-on carrot can do a lot to attract and retain pilots and help control wages versus a non-WO that lacks a flow.

Secondly, having a flow does not preclude from hiring elsewhere, and because pilots tend to apply at more than one carrier, all of them (carriers) have automated application scoring systems that more or less act similarly, allowing all of them to hire off the street as well, including from competitors WOs.


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