Mesa TA Passes
07-15-2017 | 07:30 AM
#21
Line Holder
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 46
Likes: 0
With n = 3, a randomly chosen TA has a 1 in three chance of being the right one - 33%. If we skip the first, and find that second is better than the first, then the probability goes up to 50% - now it's TA #2 vs. TA #3. Skipping TA #2 in hopes of three being better only give you a 33% chance of #3 being the right choice. It's the Secretary Problem - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secretary_problem
Also kind of like the Monty Hall problem - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhlc7peGlGg
Also kind of like the Monty Hall problem - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhlc7peGlGg
07-15-2017 | 08:42 AM
#23
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2016
Posts: 145
Likes: 0
If you assume we'd get three chances then, mathematically, choosing the second actually has the highest probability of being the best. Unless of course JO is super sophisticated and is using that fact against the pilots - doubt it.
Most of the no's I talked to were sort of like Trump voters, while the yea's seemed to be the more coherent group.
Most of the no's I talked to were sort of like Trump voters, while the yea's seemed to be the more coherent group.
If you disagree with this fact then you need to take a look in the mirror.
07-15-2017 | 09:43 AM
#24
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jun 2014
Posts: 923
Likes: 0
Your sophisticated probability discussion doesn't change the fact that the Mesa pilot group just approved a contract with known pay DECREASES for new hire FOs in just a couple of years. I get that Mesa contracts are historically some of the lowest paying in the industry. If you guys wanted to perpetuate that, fine. Not my business. But knowingly accepting this while condemning future FOs to even lower pay rates??? In two years new hires at Mesa will have to work 3-4 years just to break the rate a first year FO makes at most other regionals. Wow....
07-15-2017 | 10:30 AM
#25
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 2,145
Likes: 0
Your sophisticated probability discussion doesn't change the fact that the Mesa pilot group just approved a contract with known pay DECREASES for new hire FOs in just a couple of years. I get that Mesa contracts are historically some of the lowest paying in the industry. If you guys wanted to perpetuate that, fine. Not my business. But knowingly accepting this while condemning future FOs to even lower pay rates??? In two years new hires at Mesa will have to work 3-4 years just to break the rate a first year FO makes at most other regionals. Wow....
07-15-2017 | 10:43 AM
#26
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 688
Likes: 0
Your sophisticated probability discussion doesn't change the fact that the Mesa pilot group just approved a contract with known pay DECREASES for new hire FOs in just a couple of years. I get that Mesa contracts are historically some of the lowest paying in the industry. If you guys wanted to perpetuate that, fine. Not my business. But knowingly accepting this while condemning future FOs to even lower pay rates??? In two years new hires at Mesa will have to work 3-4 years just to break the rate a first year FO makes at most other regionals. Wow....
07-15-2017 | 02:27 PM
#28
sippin' dat koolaid
Joined: Jun 2013
Posts: 982
Likes: 0
From: gear slinger
In two years, all FO's will be CA's - unless JO's wild fantasy with the pilot shortage going away happens. And, a couple of years after that, the newly minted CA will more than likely at the majors (assuming he has a degree and interview skills), unless the retirement age goes up or this administration starts allowing foreign pilots to have work Visas in droves.
It really sucks for the no voters, because even if you voted no you will still be associated with this atrocity. Those of you who regularly read these forums have been warned for some time now to get the hell out, and if you didn't (for whatever reason) then that is on you. Don't be surprised if the passage of this TA sets you back a few years getting out of Mesa.
07-15-2017 | 03:53 PM
#29
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 2,145
Likes: 0
That is assuming your current CAs are able to move on to bigger and better things. The problem now for ALL current Mesa pilots is being associated with the passing of a sub standard contract in an environment where pilots have more leverage than ever. No major US airline with pilots involved in the hiring process wants to hire from a group of sellouts who would likely do the same at their next employer.
It really sucks for the no voters, because even if you voted no you will still be associated with this atrocity. Those of you who regularly read these forums have been warned for some time now to get the hell out, and if you didn't (for whatever reason) then that is on you. Don't be surprised if the passage of this TA sets you back a few years getting out of Mesa.
It really sucks for the no voters, because even if you voted no you will still be associated with this atrocity. Those of you who regularly read these forums have been warned for some time now to get the hell out, and if you didn't (for whatever reason) then that is on you. Don't be surprised if the passage of this TA sets you back a few years getting out of Mesa.
My next door neighbor works for American and my brother works for Southwest. They tell me their airlines are working overtime to fill seats. Southwest is short on simulator time for the first time my brother recalls.
Any pilot, who has a degree and the time in left seat, is going to be hired if they have someone who can walk their resume in and has decent interpersonal skills.
07-15-2017 | 04:40 PM
#30
Line Holder
Joined: Oct 2016
Posts: 53
Likes: 0
That is assuming your current CAs are able to move on to bigger and better things. The problem now for ALL current Mesa pilots is being associated with the passing of a sub standard contract in an environment where pilots have more leverage than ever. No major US airline with pilots involved in the hiring process wants to hire from a group of sellouts who would likely do the same at their next employer.
It really sucks for the no voters, because even if you voted no you will still be associated with this atrocity. Those of you who regularly read these forums have been warned for some time now to get the hell out, and if you didn't (for whatever reason) then that is on you. Don't be surprised if the passage of this TA sets you back a few years getting out of Mesa.
It really sucks for the no voters, because even if you voted no you will still be associated with this atrocity. Those of you who regularly read these forums have been warned for some time now to get the hell out, and if you didn't (for whatever reason) then that is on you. Don't be surprised if the passage of this TA sets you back a few years getting out of Mesa.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
