Thanks for that insightful info perpetual. The help I was trying to solicit from the few that actually provide that on here was whether or not the recruiter that did my interview was blowing smoke or not about the door still being open to upgrade fairly quickly. Regardless of everyone always talking s--t about upgrading, 35k more per year makes a difference in the selection process.

 

Anyone hired in the next few months should eventually end up in the top half of the seniority list in-base by the time all the new planes have arrived--especially in IAD.

From that point onward, upgrade potential depends largely on attrition due to legacy hiring and the possibility of additional growth.

 

Exactly.

I'm literally shocked at the attitude of some of the people posting on APC right now (and a few new hires at Mesa).

People are acting like there's a menu they order from: "What company do I go to to make sure I am based where I want, with the schedule I want, with the upgrade I want, on the plane I want, with the days off I want, I want, I want, I want." LOL.

Some guys quit Mesa last year because they didn't want to do a partial bid month in HNL--even with paid hotels!!! Some new hires seem like they have an entitlement mentality about upgrade within the year, before they even have the legally required experience to do so.

"Mommy and daddy said I can be EJet Captain wahhhhhhhhh"

Seriously though--this isn't a toy store--it's an airline--you go where they tell you to when they tell you to and that may or may not jive with your ideal situation. Like navmode said--it's always a dice roll even if it looks like a sure thing.

 

Sounds like a lifer

 

Sounds like someone being realistic.

The ONLY thing anyone can know about the career situation at any airline today, is what it is TODAY.

IF Mesa is THE best regional option TODAY, if you sent in your app, and were in class in two weeks, by the time you were at Mesa the current upgrade time, Mesa could be the WORST regional.

Upgrade time today counts for 0. No one knows what the upgrade time at ANY airline will be 3 years from now.

I would not recommend going somewhere SOLELY for the upgrade time, for you may be very, very upset to find out it has changed radically by the time you get to the current upgrade time.

Look at ALL the factors, and make your best decision, and don't be doing the hindsight thing and beating yourself up for a "wrong" decision.

Earth is a crapshoot, and an airline career is no exception.

 

One thing to keep in mind as far as attrition goes, the average new hire has somewhere in the range of 3600 hours. Most of these folks are looking to get their time and GTFO, and they will most likely get to the majors before the incoming 1500 hour CFIs (which there were only a handful of in my class).

Sure, the top of the seniority list isn't going anywhere, but there are very few if any hired today who will become lifers. Those guys are going to the "good" regionals.

 

Or get recency (military on a desk the last year, instructor at Flightsafety/CAE, time off from flying, etc) with the same egress plan. In my case 9300 hrs. Just started back at a regional. Small class, everyone else is a 1500hr bridge program CFI.

Why did I choose where I'm at? They got me in class the fastest (app to class 15 days) and the training is local. As someone said it's a dice roll. I chose ACA/Independence in 2000. It had the best regional contract at the time and 2 yr upgrade (right to left in 26 months in the CRJ200 for me). Look how that ended. If it had gone the other way I'd be a 14yr Airbus CA.

 

I'm curious about the upgrades at Mesa. While we're still getting CRJ's, there will be quick movement on them. Getting something like 10 this year, not sure where we are right now staffing them with captains and first officers. After they all arrive, unless we get more, then the quick movement on those planes and bases should slow down fairly dramatically. Then the main movement will be on the EMJ, which at this point is based only in IAH.

 

Movement will continue on the CRI side for as long as E-Jets are coming on property due to the CRJ FO's upgrading into the Embraers.

 

Awesome point.