One thing to keep in mind as far as attrition goes, the average new hire has somewhere in the range of 3600 hours. Most of these folks are looking to get their time and GTFO, and they will most likely get to the majors before the incoming 1500 hour CFIs (which there were only a handful of in my class).

Sure, the top of the seniority list isn't going anywhere, but there are very few if any hired today who will become lifers. Those guys are going to the "good" regionals.

Or get recency (military on a desk the last year, instructor at Flightsafety/CAE, time off from flying, etc) with the same egress plan. In my case 9300 hrs. Just started back at a regional. Small class, everyone else is a 1500hr bridge program CFI.

Why did I choose where I'm at? They got me in class the fastest (app to class 15 days) and the training is local. As someone said it's a dice roll. I chose ACA/Independence in 2000. It had the best regional contract at the time and 2 yr upgrade (right to left in 26 months in the CRJ200 for me). Look how that ended. If it had gone the other way I'd be a 14yr Airbus CA.

I'm curious about the upgrades at Mesa. While we're still getting CRJ's, there will be quick movement on them. Getting something like 10 this year, not sure where we are right now staffing them with captains and first officers. After they all arrive, unless we get more, then the quick movement on those planes and bases should slow down fairly dramatically. Then the main movement will be on the EMJ, which at this point is based only in IAH.

Movement will continue on the CRI side for as long as E-Jets are coming on property due to the CRJ FO's upgrading into the Embraers.

Awesome point.

That is until United decides to move them elsewhere.... Then what? It's a different ball game when you don't own your airframes.

A recurring theme at Mesa is waiting to see how management finds a way to screw growth up. No illusions around here, management never got fixed, history tends to repeat itself. Easy come easy go. Despite ALPA rhetoric, no new contract here for years. I'd come for basing options but all the CA's for growth aircraft are probably on property already.

So you keep saying...again....and again....

IF/WHEN movement stops due to a lack of new airframes coming online, attrition and retirements will take care of it. There already was at least 1 retirement since I was hired 3 month ago .

Whatever the near future holds, at least we are NOT parking airframes like Republic is already doing, and I am sure others will start follow suit .

Yeah cuz all the airframes (LOTS of airframes) were already parked in the years preceding your current good fortune. So while you're riding the good times just remember Mesa went through a dark dark time shedding all those 50, and less seaters. I'm super happy for you guys now, but it was bought and paid for trust me.