Poor Great Lakes :(
08-20-2013, 06:13 PM
#51
Gets EVERY weekend off
Joined APC: Jul 2006
Position: SIC
Posts: 1,367
Originally Posted by Sr. Barco
Agreed.
Just for perspective, Net Jets has 3,000 pilots on their seniority list. This is about 18 months of forecast (age 65) retirement attrition. Every single pilot on that list could be hired and there would still be 16,000 more retirements after them in the next 10 years alone.
The bottom line is you cannot retire (under current rules) 2,000 pilots a year indefinitely and expect the industry to remain static. It will be interesting to watch.
S.B.
Just for perspective, Net Jets has 3,000 pilots on their seniority list. This is about 18 months of forecast (age 65) retirement attrition. Every single pilot on that list could be hired and there would still be 16,000 more retirements after them in the next 10 years alone.
The bottom line is you cannot retire (under current rules) 2,000 pilots a year indefinitely and expect the industry to remain static. It will be interesting to watch.
S.B.
08-20-2013, 07:45 PM
#52
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2011
Posts: 620
Originally Posted by deadstick35
What's cheaper?
Training 35,000 or even 50,000 new hires is many times cheaper than paying the top salary for 35,000 65 yr old 767, 777 & 747 Captains sitting at the top of the food chain.
Managments want them gone sooner than you guys want them gone....
Managements would love to replace them with 35000 new hires at 1st yr pay & bennies, it will be great for the books & their bonuses....
08-20-2013, 08:06 PM
#53
Dumb Pilot
Joined APC: Apr 2013
Position: Broke
Posts: 784
There are no fewer pilots getting license today than there were ten years ago. There will never be a shortage. They pump this story to keep people thinking they will make some money finally. The numbers don't lie
http://www.faa.gov/data_research/avi...Air17-2012.xls
http://www.faa.gov/data_research/avi...Air17-2012.xls
08-20-2013, 08:24 PM
#55
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,293
Originally Posted by Is offline
There are no fewer pilots getting license today than there were ten years ago. There will never be a shortage. They pump this story to keep people thinking they will make some money finally. The numbers don't lie
http://www.faa.gov/data_research/avi...Air17-2012.xls
http://www.faa.gov/data_research/avi...Air17-2012.xls
Well from talking to people fresh from the the trenches (new regional FO's) and hanging out at the local flying club...
Schools that specialize in training foreigners, especially those that cater to Asian nations are doing well. Most of their students go home at the end. This sector is almost certainly propping up the stats.
Recreational GA is down, has been since 2008. Oil prices, insurance, TSA hassles have all taken a toll. It doesn't help that you can't buy a new basic IFR ASEL for much under a half a million.
Career student starts are down hard. The regional bubble is bursting in slo-mo and people are catching on, and the lenders which fueled the feeding frenzy have wised up big time since 2008. People are really thinking twice when they have to pony up money they've already earned. The easy training loans of the past enabled a bunch of impulsive types, the kind who usually regret most of their decisions later...the fewer of those we have in aviation, the better.
08-21-2013, 10:17 PM
#59
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: May 2009
Posts: 474
I think there are solutions, but there are no cheap solutions and the regionals are going to have to be creative. Unfortunately for the airline industry, you can't create pilots overnight. It takes time to "make" pilots, and in order for the regionals to get ahead of the pilot shortage curve (assuming a serious shortage materializes), they should have started programs a couple of years ago. But again, that would cost money and energy and regional airline management would never expend either of those things for pilots. Regional airline management tends to be more reactive than proactive when it comes to stuff like this.
If things got really desperate, the regional airlines could have all the 1,000 hr. pilots they wanted. How? Raise salaries....but that's crazy talk!
Or.....Go to the universities/flight programs that will qualify for the 1,000 hour exemption. They could interview pilots at their Junior (3rd year) level in University and pick their favorite candidates.
The regional rents an airplane for that pilot and picks up the tab for that 700 hours. The candidate would be expected to fly 700 hours during the summer of his Junior year and finish up the hours during his Senior year. Let's say the airplane rental costs the regional $120/hour. Cost to the regional airline: around $84,000.
Expensive, yes. But by doing this, the regional airline could stick with their same crappy pay scales because the "enticement" would be that 700 hours of flight time in exchange for some sort of commitment from the pilot candidate. Let's say it's a 4 year commitment and the plane could be rented for $120/hr by the airline. $84,000/4 = $21,000 per year if the airline amortizes that expense over the 4 year commitment. The regional is still getting a hell of a deal because they can pay their crappy $20,000/year salaries and still get pilots. In essence, all they would be doing is "paying" that $21,000 a year up front instead of having to pay a higher salary in order to attract pilots in the first place, but this method guarantees candidates of their choosing.
If the regionals got really creative, they could come up with a "curriculum" that a potential pilot would have to follow during that 700 hours (XXX night hours, XXX instrument XC, etc.), thereby avoiding Roger Cohen's (well-tanned head of the Regional Airline Association) "banner towing" and "flying in circles," which of course is the way the rest of us obtained our flying experience before going to the regionals and then the majors (he-he).
If things got really desperate, the regional airlines could have all the 1,000 hr. pilots they wanted. How? Raise salaries....but that's crazy talk!
Or.....Go to the universities/flight programs that will qualify for the 1,000 hour exemption. They could interview pilots at their Junior (3rd year) level in University and pick their favorite candidates.
The regional rents an airplane for that pilot and picks up the tab for that 700 hours. The candidate would be expected to fly 700 hours during the summer of his Junior year and finish up the hours during his Senior year. Let's say the airplane rental costs the regional $120/hour. Cost to the regional airline: around $84,000.
Expensive, yes. But by doing this, the regional airline could stick with their same crappy pay scales because the "enticement" would be that 700 hours of flight time in exchange for some sort of commitment from the pilot candidate. Let's say it's a 4 year commitment and the plane could be rented for $120/hr by the airline. $84,000/4 = $21,000 per year if the airline amortizes that expense over the 4 year commitment. The regional is still getting a hell of a deal because they can pay their crappy $20,000/year salaries and still get pilots. In essence, all they would be doing is "paying" that $21,000 a year up front instead of having to pay a higher salary in order to attract pilots in the first place, but this method guarantees candidates of their choosing.
If the regionals got really creative, they could come up with a "curriculum" that a potential pilot would have to follow during that 700 hours (XXX night hours, XXX instrument XC, etc.), thereby avoiding Roger Cohen's (well-tanned head of the Regional Airline Association) "banner towing" and "flying in circles," which of course is the way the rest of us obtained our flying experience before going to the regionals and then the majors (he-he).
08-21-2013, 10:57 PM
#60
Line Holder
Joined APC: Aug 2008
Posts: 59
Originally Posted by globalexpress
I think there are solutions, but there are no cheap solutions and the regionals are going to have to be creative. Unfortunately for the airline industry, you can't create pilots overnight. It takes time to "make" pilots, and in order for the regionals to get ahead of the pilot shortage curve (assuming a serious shortage materializes), they should have started programs a couple of years ago. But again, that would cost money and energy and regional airline management would never expend either of those things for pilots. Regional airline management tends to be more reactive than proactive when it comes to stuff like this.
If things got really desperate, the regional airlines could have all the 1,000 hr. pilots they wanted. How? Raise salaries....but that's crazy talk!
Or.....Go to the universities/flight programs that will qualify for the 1,000 hour exemption. They could interview pilots at their Junior (3rd year) level in University and pick their favorite candidates.
The regional rents an airplane for that pilot and picks up the tab for that 700 hours. The candidate would be expected to fly 700 hours during the summer of his Junior year and finish up the hours during his Senior year. Let's say the airplane rental costs the regional $120/hour. Cost to the regional airline: around $84,000.
Expensive, yes. But by doing this, the regional airline could stick with their same crappy pay scales because the "enticement" would be that 700 hours of flight time in exchange for some sort of commitment from the pilot candidate. Let's say it's a 4 year commitment and the plane could be rented for $120/hr by the airline. $84,000/4 = $21,000 per year if the airline amortizes that expense over the 4 year commitment. The regional is still getting a hell of a deal because they can pay their crappy $20,000/year salaries and still get pilots. In essence, all they would be doing is "paying" that $21,000 a year up front instead of having to pay a higher salary in order to attract pilots in the first place, but this method guarantees candidates of their choosing.
If the regionals got really creative, they could come up with a "curriculum" that a potential pilot would have to follow during that 700 hours (XXX night hours, XXX instrument XC, etc.), thereby avoiding Roger Cohen's (well-tanned head of the Regional Airline Association) "banner towing" and "flying in circles," which of course is the way the rest of us obtained our flying experience before going to the regionals and then the majors (he-he).
If things got really desperate, the regional airlines could have all the 1,000 hr. pilots they wanted. How? Raise salaries....but that's crazy talk!
Or.....Go to the universities/flight programs that will qualify for the 1,000 hour exemption. They could interview pilots at their Junior (3rd year) level in University and pick their favorite candidates.
The regional rents an airplane for that pilot and picks up the tab for that 700 hours. The candidate would be expected to fly 700 hours during the summer of his Junior year and finish up the hours during his Senior year. Let's say the airplane rental costs the regional $120/hour. Cost to the regional airline: around $84,000.
Expensive, yes. But by doing this, the regional airline could stick with their same crappy pay scales because the "enticement" would be that 700 hours of flight time in exchange for some sort of commitment from the pilot candidate. Let's say it's a 4 year commitment and the plane could be rented for $120/hr by the airline. $84,000/4 = $21,000 per year if the airline amortizes that expense over the 4 year commitment. The regional is still getting a hell of a deal because they can pay their crappy $20,000/year salaries and still get pilots. In essence, all they would be doing is "paying" that $21,000 a year up front instead of having to pay a higher salary in order to attract pilots in the first place, but this method guarantees candidates of their choosing.
If the regionals got really creative, they could come up with a "curriculum" that a potential pilot would have to follow during that 700 hours (XXX night hours, XXX instrument XC, etc.), thereby avoiding Roger Cohen's (well-tanned head of the Regional Airline Association) "banner towing" and "flying in circles," which of course is the way the rest of us obtained our flying experience before going to the regionals and then the majors (he-he).
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