I am a Piedmont Pilot Recruiter
01-21-2020, 05:46 AM
#62
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2017
Posts: 429
Originally Posted by Bluetaildragger
Where is this idea that AA comes up with estimated flow times coming from? I'm pretty sure it's bs and have never heard that until this week
01-21-2020, 05:56 AM
#63
Banned
Joined APC: Jan 2015
Posts: 177
Originally Posted by DoNoHarm
This has been true for years. Staffing/hiring/pilot recruitment estimates are discussed on the weekly conference calls between the WO regionals and AA as well as emails. This is not new into.
01-21-2020, 06:08 AM
#64
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2017
Posts: 429
Originally Posted by Bluetaildragger
Discussing staffing/hiring/pilot recruitment is not the same thing as AA coming up with some crackpot estimate of when a WO pilot hired today will flow and telling the WO to advertise it
01-21-2020, 06:15 AM
#65
Banned
Joined APC: Jan 2015
Posts: 177
Originally Posted by DoNoHarm
Sure it is. Discussing what estimated attrition will be each month from each seat for each airline means that flow estimates change. AA has plans for staffing for each airline that correlates with the amount of flying that is projected. The flow estimates are a part of this.
For flow, it matters who leaves at what point, and whether they're senior to the pilot whose flow they're projecting. The more senior they are, the less likely the person leaving is senior to them. It's extremely fluid and complicated compared to a staffing analysis.
They care about staffing at their WO and staffing at AA, and I doubt they're concerned with staffing at the mainline level. And with regard to the WOs, the only thing that really matters is overall attrition. They want meat in the seat. The flow time for a new hire is completely irrelevant in that respect, and the only thing that matters is that x amount of Piedmont pilots per month are going to AA.
01-21-2020, 07:33 AM
#66
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2017
Posts: 429
Originally Posted by Bluetaildragger
No, it's not. That is a simple staffing prediction. In that scenario, they wouldn't care who leaves at what point in their progression at the WO.
For flow, it matters who leaves at what point, and whether they're senior to the pilot whose flow they're projecting. The more senior they are, the less likely the person leaving is senior to them. It's extremely fluid and complicated compared to a staffing analysis.
They care about staffing at their WO and staffing at AA, and I doubt they're concerned with staffing at the mainline level. And with regard to the WOs, the only thing that really matters is overall attrition. They want meat in the seat. The flow time for a new hire is completely irrelevant in that respect, and the only thing that matters is that x amount of Piedmont pilots per month are going to AA.
For flow, it matters who leaves at what point, and whether they're senior to the pilot whose flow they're projecting. The more senior they are, the less likely the person leaving is senior to them. It's extremely fluid and complicated compared to a staffing analysis.
They care about staffing at their WO and staffing at AA, and I doubt they're concerned with staffing at the mainline level. And with regard to the WOs, the only thing that really matters is overall attrition. They want meat in the seat. The flow time for a new hire is completely irrelevant in that respect, and the only thing that matters is that x amount of Piedmont pilots per month are going to AA.
Staffing is MUCH more detailed than number of bodies. Pilots in each seat, time in seat, pilots that are in training department and management roles, etc... are all tracked.
I would suggest that you sit in on the calls and other information sharing and you will see where you are wrong. The spreadsheets show attrition at each point in seniority, and total time on property. It is simple to put this in a spreadsheet and see how much you will move up the seniority list depending on your longevity. This is exactly what happens. Every month.
AA does the projections, period. You can believe it or not, but it is true.
01-21-2020, 07:45 AM
#67
Banned
Joined APC: Jan 2015
Posts: 177
Originally Posted by DoNoHarm
Its does matter when people flow and what the attrition is at each level. The evidence is what is happening right now. The number of Captains leaving outside of the flow, as well as the Line Check Airmen attrition, is highly important. There are Line Check Airmen leaving within weeks of getting their letter at the AA WO airlines.
Staffing is MUCH more detailed than number of bodies. Pilots in each seat, time in seat, pilots that are in training department and management roles, etc... are all tracked.
I would suggest that you sit in on the calls and other information sharing and you will see where you are wrong. The spreadsheets show attrition at each point in seniority, and total time on property. It is simple to put this in a spreadsheet and see how much you will move up the seniority list depending on your longevity. This is exactly what happens. Every month.
AA does the projections, period. You can believe it or not, but it is true.
Staffing is MUCH more detailed than number of bodies. Pilots in each seat, time in seat, pilots that are in training department and management roles, etc... are all tracked.
I would suggest that you sit in on the calls and other information sharing and you will see where you are wrong. The spreadsheets show attrition at each point in seniority, and total time on property. It is simple to put this in a spreadsheet and see how much you will move up the seniority list depending on your longevity. This is exactly what happens. Every month.
AA does the projections, period. You can believe it or not, but it is true.
If you're saying AA is behind the 5 year flow lie, then I would love to hear it from the horses mouth. Care to share how you have this information from these calls or sit in on them? I'm sure im not the only one who would love to see them
01-21-2020, 11:10 AM
#68
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2017
Posts: 1,109
Originally Posted by Fonzo
Thanks for the advise but which regional that has all of that and have 145 with 50/hour or good pay in the end and close to commute to CMH please.
01-21-2020, 08:49 PM
#69
Line Holder
Joined APC: May 2019
Posts: 35
Got a point there
Originally Posted by Thedude86
is it really that important to you to fly a 145 that you’ll give up more pay and days off. If you actually are willing to only have 12 days off you’re entire regional career you will easily credit 110-120 hours per month anywhere else. Do the math... what is more? 75 hours x $50/hour or 115 hours x $45/hour? PSA has a DAY base. Endeavor is opening CVG. Republic has CMH and IND. Or you can have a 2 leg commute anywhere else and still have more days off at home for the same amount of hours.
Republic is the best choice but the cons about them is their next class is probably in April, if you get out before a year you have to pay back the ATP-CTP and the sign on bonus, no flow to majors, their upgrade takes forever and long reserves.
what do you think?
01-22-2020, 05:35 AM
#70
Line Holder
Joined APC: Nov 2018
Position: 135 F/O
Posts: 60
Originally Posted by DoNoHarm
AA is the one who calculates the estimated flows. It is based on projected attrition both with and outside of the flow. It takes hiring of all major airlines into account, with normal retirements, and estimated number of employees that will leave to go elsewhere.
The flaw in these flow calculations is that they underpredicted the number of pilots who would be too lazy to apply outside of the flow and to work hard to try to get hired somewhere else. At last check, less than 18% of the AA WO pilots even have an updated application in with any major airline. This is insane.
So, the flow will likely be 6 years or less, that is true. The only thing that will make it more is pilots not trying to get hired before.
The flaw in these flow calculations is that they underpredicted the number of pilots who would be too lazy to apply outside of the flow and to work hard to try to get hired somewhere else. At last check, less than 18% of the AA WO pilots even have an updated application in with any major airline. This is insane.
So, the flow will likely be 6 years or less, that is true. The only thing that will make it more is pilots not trying to get hired before.
IamPDTrecruiter your thoughts?
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