Some should even consider the junior manning as a concession...

 

I’ve become convinced that there is no labor shortage. There was a temporary labor “squeeze” felt most in 2016/2017. But with the RTP pilots and the pilots coming through the other programs set up a couple years back I see no real end in sight to their pilot supply. Our only hope for any leverage now is for attrition to start outpacing their ability to hire and train.

 

That was the initial "squeeze," but I don't think we've seen the real deal yet. If I can get a job at a major right when I hit 2500hrs that changes the landscape even more. I think this is realistic over the next 2 years, pilots getting their 1000hrs of 121 and moving up and out instead of upgrading and sticking around for another 4 years.

Yes, we'll have a supply of new pilots, but we'll see a lack of quality LCAs and likely some serious safety issue which result (hopefully with no loss of life). If something serious does happen that could force AAG's hand on the whole "B scale" staple thing.

 

There was an event in SAV a couple days ago with over 500 rotor pilots in attendance looking to make the jump to 121. That’s at 1 single event. There is absolutely no shortage. The RTP program is paying off dividends for the regionals that have invested the money and many of the pipeline programs that were set up in 2016-2017 will start bearing fruit around 2019/2020 further increasing the supply. Word is out that pay has come up. Flight schools have plenty of willing students with the funds, they just don’t have enough instructors right now.

As far as an incident or accident happening, I had a lengthy response to that typed out and decided against posting it. Any of us who have been flying at a regional for a while (3-4+ years) knows the score and we can all see what’s happening industry-wide. I pray nothing happens and I pray even more that it doesn’t happen at PSA. Be vigilant and diligent.

 

Out of those 500 how many are actually qualified?

I personally had two friends attend, both are civilian and PSA doesn't have a civilian RTP program.

Based on the RTAG facebook feed I would guess that maybe 100 of those people were prior military able to start their transition training a year from now.

There were maybe 25 - 50 people able and ready to start a military rotary transition that day.

While there are people in the pipeline - rotor transitions, civilian new starts, etc there will be no huge wave.

All that said, I believe our opportunity to exert the minuscule amount of leverage we may have had has passed us by.

 

There were certainly more than 100 qualified at the event. The target audience for that group is the ability to transition within 3 years. PSA held interviews over both days of the events, even adding extra interviews onto today to handle the interest. There were over 100 attendees at the PSA meet and greet Friday night. We're still compiling the numbers from the surveys handed out during registration at the event. While it may not be a wave of new hires from this event, which would be limited by the current training capacity anyway, it does seem like a steady stream of qualified applicants will come from this pool for all of the regionals.

 

What's the longevity of an RTP guy or gal at a regional? I'd imagine with the prior military experience and the 121 experience boxes now checked I bet they could make the jump to a Major or LCC fairly quickly.

I'll be curious to see the percentage that stay long enough to upgrade.

 

Too new of a program to determine at this point. Envoy's program was the first, and it's only about 18 months old. Maybe this time next year, there will be a better data points. There have been a few rotorheads that moved up, but they had Army fixed wing experience as well as rotary wing.

 

Most legacy airlines still look at rotor time as if these fellas were riding around on broomsticks for their whole .gov career. I know some have gone to JetBlue and Spirit but only after 2-3 years at their regional get the phantasmical 1,000 hours of 121.

 

Jeebus Christmas learn how to read...

100 military ready to start within a year is what I said.