stillcantfly

I think to many variables still. And honestly they do what they are told. They are a puppet in the grand scheme of things. What ever AA needs is what we will do to fit the model. Is it possible sure. If you have been in the airlines long enough you will see everything is possible.

chrisreedrules

ALPA and our president have said we are overstaffed. We lost the remaining CRJ200s leaving us with roughly 130 aircraft. We were staffed for about 145 aircraft. Using normal airline staffing metrics we are overstaffed by about 500-600 pilots.

Swakid8

I’ll argue and say that we’re staffed easily for 150 planes as that was the plan. Now the plan is 130 planes. Reading between the lines from the last conference call, I’ll be shocked if we don’t furlough come October unless, we get some CRJ-200 replacements from somewhere.

ZeroTT

150 planes require no more pilots than 130 when you only fly 75 of them.

although fleet size will matter eventually, what matters on Oct 1 is passenger demand. Still less than 10% of last years demand which would suggest psa is overstaffed by approximately 1800 pilots

captande

They don’t need to furlough to close a base. Although now that the 200 is essentially gone it wouldn’t surprise me to see another base close.

Happyflyer

Wouldn't it be cheaper to furlough, close, then recall?

ZeroTT

Would be hard to target a furlough to one base

DoggiePoo

You lost the 200's already and you actually believe that the other 90/70's staffing is not going to be affected? Industry is 90% off it's last year passenger counts. The TSA says that passenger traffic is at 6% SWA alone burned through 1 Billion $ in a month. PSA is one of the highest cost regional's. AA is definitely the first to declare bankruptcy. The job losses for PSA and the other 2 wholly owned will be tantamount to each and every one of you being shut down or at best possibly 20% of your pilot pool surviving the cut. I suggest you all start getting your financial house in order for a huge hit. Stop with the delusions that this is not going to affect you. The Kool-Aid has run out.

chrisreedrules

Well I’m as realistic as they come and even I don’t see things being that dire. South Korea has seen a return to about 50% of their 2019 load factors and China is hovering somewhere just below 70% at the moment.

The legacies aren’t just going to furlough 50%+ of their pilots if demand is only 50% come the end of 2020. They’ll do what they have to do (ala AA’s early-outs and reduced-pay leaves) to keep pilots around as long as they can for the eventual recovery. Besides, it takes months and months to furlough that many.

I do think furloughs are obviously likely. 20-30% at most airlines is my guess. The thing to remember about the regionals is that we are the, “shock absorbers” for when the feces hits the oscillator. Easier to make money with 60/76 seats full on a CRJ-900 compared to 60/120 seats on an Airbus. They’ll keep the RJs around as long as they can to fly fuller planes for longer. Eventually yea, IF we haven’t seen a recovery by summer 2021 I imagine we’ll feel deeper pain than just 20-30% furloughs at PSA.

Personally I’d expect some consolidation at the regional level before the end of 2020. If things really are that bad expect Ch11 for all the legacies and more mergers in 2021. AA May declare anyway because even at 60-75% recovery by 2021 they’ll have burned through most of their cash pile and won’t be able to service debt. Going to be a crappy/interesting couple of years.

ZeroTT

Curious to see how things play out if every flight is load restricted