Remember a good chunk of those new certificates are heading back overseas. It would be better if you knew ow many of those wet certificates trained on a student visa of some sort.

 

Go look at the certificates issues between 2008 and 2012. Near zero hiring, probably the lowest point in the airline industry..

Been hearing about this “shortage” for well over a decade. Fake News.

 

That was age 65. Economy or not, age 65 guaranteed no movement anywhere without growth (which actually started to pick up after 2010).

 

I doubt we will see a pilot shortage in the US.. especially at the Majors.

 

Not for a few years, and maybe never at the top-tier after all of this.

 

Rick, how long do you think until the regionals return to hiring CFIs at R-ATP mins? I figure that won’t happen until some time after they resume hiring. Won’t there be some time — maybe years — where they’re able to hire from a glut of multi-thousand-hour ATPs at 2010 wages (no signing bonuses)? Only after that supply is exhausted would they touch CFIs at bare mins, and again it’ll be at lower wages. Could be years and years before another 1500 hour CFI gets a signing bonus and CTP paid for.

 

I don't know, it depends on the economy first and then how the regionals view their staffing needs. We'll know more in a few months, whether it's trending as a recession or something worse. My gut feel is minor recession (travel industry hit hard though) but I have no way of knowing for sure, I think it comes down to how the governments deal with their economies and respond to COVID (vaccines, etc).

Regionals might start hiring before majors (happened in the past), but who they hire is debatable...

Do they want furloughed major/regional pilots who can pass training? Having a high pass rate, which includes completing probation, is money on the table for the airline. Fail-rate for furloughed major pilots (who are all relatively junior with recent training event(s)) would be near zero.

Or will they take a longer view, and try to hire low-time folks who will stick around longer and upgrade, since majors won't be hiring until all of the furloughs get recalled?

I think there might still be jets-for-jobs provisions in scope clauses which would force some regionals to hire furloughed major pilots first.

I agree there won't be any bonuses or probably free CTPs for a while.

 

Let’s see what happens to the cadet programs. Might be the first hint of what’s to come. If regionals dump them (and everyone in them) this summer, perhaps you have an answer.....

 

It's the million-dollar question, but based in your experience, do you foresee regional furloughs during/after the summer?

 

Yes, hard not to. We've already seen three that I know of just shut down.

But it depends on your company's structure and contracts, as well as major scope... IIRC some scope will require parking RJ's at a ratio with mainline jets. Might be a few regionals that don't furlough. I think all the majors will.

Best realistic case IMO is 25-35% furlough at the big three, 10-20% furloughs at the other majors. I'd be astounded if it's any less, only way is if the fed gives more aid for longer. Regionals will vary by their specific situation. Depending on how long this drags out, and how resilient the economy is, it could be worse on furloughs.

Things might come back faster this time, but that's unknowable so some majors might furlough on 01 Oct just to stop the bleeding even though it might cost them more in the long run.

International will be harder for longer, and that will affect those who feed it.