I think the big wave is really yet to come if you look at the retirements coming. This current wave is over but I think that is because so many people have come back to flying, and that is a one time thing. I didn't touch an airplane for ten years and started flying again because of the "shortage", headed to ATP-CTP in 3 weeks. There are a lot of "lost decade" people like me in the pipeline right now.

And like others have said Endeavor and Republic have no shortage; the likes of Mesa and Trans States are desperate.

Absolutely... how many already went out of business.... the rest have had to increase pay and working conditions. The bottom feeders only do it just enough to keep meat in the seats. The better ones are equally screwed since the LCC’s and majors have sucked up theirs captains and even their senior FO’s, leaving FO’s that can’t upgrade, causing hiring of street captains at several regionals such that the training centers of the better ones are flat out just with upgrades trying to keep captains around.

Shortage? You better believe it. But it’s still only due to not offering real compensation and bonuses only. Increase actual pay and many will return to flying from their other careers. Guys making $100k elsewhere and home everyday aren’t going to go live in a crashpad and out of a suitcase for $50k-$60k, only to upgrade to a $75k to $90k CA job putting them back in a crashpad again. Face it, management has destroyed the quality of life, and stripped away the compensation over the past 40 years to the point that very very few want the job anymore. The current shortage is due to pay and QOL. In just a few more years it will become an actual physical shortage since there aren’t enough new starts to keep a good supply coming. Again, due to management making the job unattractive.

QOL and pay, along with seat comfort in back all come down to one thing in my opinion. How much the flying public is willing to pay. They aren’t Legacies will pay for now but the cycle will lead to bankruptcy for them. Just got to hope you miss the cycle when it’s most critical

Pilot shortage
 

So if the wave is over what would be the best decision:
1) sign up for a regional cadet program that offers a conditional job offer for once you reach ATP mins?
2) just keep plugging away and build hours and start throwing resumes out to all once you get close to the hours?
Was really hoping that with the hiring that was going on it was going to keep up for another year and a half or so.

Keep your nose clean, try to get some turbine time if you can, keep plugging away at hours and have a degree if possible. Cadet programs can’t hurt as long as there’s no commitment. CFI’s with degrees are still getting hired at desirable regionals, but you can’t half-ass the interview or explain away 4 checkride failures like you could at some less desirable regionals.

I'll bite. An honest question from a newbie. Not trolling!

What are the "2-3 clear leaders" in your eyes and a short explanation of why?

Thank you.

The problem is the top flight regionals with 2020 class dates and huge backlogs are pushing people into TSA/Gojet/Mesa.

Pilot supply is fairly consistent, demand is variable. When you have a constant 10-12 regional 'supply' of pilots and only 6 hiring, they tend to fill classes.

The ones that are paying more than 50k first year not including all of these rediculous bonuses. I’d say Endeavor, Republic and SkyWest are now the top 3 from a hard pay perspective.

Endeavor- Pay/QOL. Hourly rates are really high. Possible to make a considerable amount of money if you want to work and a comfortable amount of money if you don’t.

Republic- Good pay, stable, good schedules.

SkyWest- bases and quick upgrades, relatively high pay.

AA wholly owned’s if you don’t have a degree or have a bad record.

Cool, thanks. Sooo, that sounds like I will have to do a deep dive investigation into Skywest (with the possibility of no commute...).

Cheers