I suspect this is why classes are full. People see the writing on the wall, and the investment is finally justified.

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These numbers represent “zero” growth. Factor in another 2-4% for growth per year and the numbers start looking even better. Should be good times ahead for about 10 years or so, barring any sort of black swan type event.

Just my $.02 worth.

They also don't account for any early retirement.

That's got to be worth at least a couple percent, especially with the high pay at some of the majors. Some dudes with millions in the bank are going to find it hard to come to work.

And being able to hold a class 1 at 65 becomes harder as one gets closer.

One other factor to consider, is that the regional's will have senior and career regional pilots that will be retiring as well. Looking at the numbers the majors will require makes me think that the regional's will severely contract.

Yes, it’s the double retirement wave that is easily forgotten.

One other forgotten thing is the lost decade has made the average age for regional pilots older. Between Flows and DGIs and CPPs, and off the street hires, there will be some 45-55 year olds being hired at mainlines, that will then be retiring in 10-20 years.

So the graphs you see with retirements per year starting to go down in 10-15 years really won’t be. The peek retirements per year could last for longer than the data is showing if a few 100 older pilots are hired each year at each legacy over the next 1-5 years.

I think anyone sitting on their laurels and waiting their turn in line to flow is making a big mistake. If you can get in a seat at the majors in the next two years you'll be a line holding Captain by the end of 10 years easy.

Anyone know what JB, NK, G4, etc, etc numbers look like?

Much younger groups (not so sure about G4). Probably no better than WN/AS, if that. The guys who will do well there either already got hired or are very young.