What about fleet consolidation? A recession? I bet Delta/American are 1k-2k pilots less each as the MD-80/E190/A330/757/767/you name it here/ is retired with a 737/A320 replacement. Less reserves, CKA, overlap.

Southwest has the same number of airplanes as delta and 5,000 less pilots. It's no secret that management sees the value in consolidating fleet types to reduce staffing.

I don't doubt that the next decade will be the best in awhile for movement, but it won't be a miracle.

Factor in that Delta, American, and United for that matter do across both ponds international flying. By default that means they will require more pilots than Southwest. Not saying that this will make up for fleet consolidation, but I bet the number of pilots that is required for international is significant.

If anybody thinks that fleet consolidation is going to even put a dent into the pilot loss during the retirement wave needs to have their head examined.

I'm not so sure it will be consolidation, I think more like fleet replacement. They may consolidate initially as they pair the fleets with demand, but in periods of a strong economy the airlines will grow when demand applies pressure.

I actually created this table last year and posted it here and the other well known forum. I wish I could have added the ulcc’s but no real good source for retirement numbers.

Hiring
 

The problem is that the Legacy carriers are up against the wall with scope .. and plus all the retirements coming , so the mainline unions will be the ones who are going to set the course .. something has to give ..either flying is going to shift more mainline and hopefully the pilots with it , or flying will shift with more scope relief toward the ,quote, “regionals” , that just simply don’t exist anymore .. they may exist in the minds of mainline union and Management to try to stick us with less pay and no profit sharing in order to do the same thing that any domestic ,quote , “mainline “ , airplane is doing , but regionals are a dead horse 🐴. Regionals were 80’s and 90’s decades and what it was when I was hired in 94’ flying props around on flight segments less than 300 miles and our flying overlapped mainline by 10 percent .. now we fly jets that were once flown by the majors in the 80’s and 90’s and 90percent of our flying overlaps mainline and a lot of our flying is well over 800 mile flight segments...It’s the same thing .. when a , quote, “mainline “, driver on a 108 seat regional B717 is pulling in 230 bucks an hour and a quote, “regional” driver of a 76 jet who is doing the exact same thing for a hundred bucks an hour less and no profit sharing and is completely owned and created by the legacy , there is something drastically out of whack ...hopefully the unions will wake up . Between scope and retirement, something is going to give soon , but which way it blows , nobody knows ..

Do you guys ever see scope ending and everything glokg back to the way it was in the 90s?

I know it’s only one day in, but post of the year so far!!

I wish it was a hundred bucks less. I don't even come close to that with the CKA override!

Good post, I'm glad it's coming from someone who has been through it over the years.

Unfortunately, I think the unions are more the impediment than the solution. Real change won't happen until people stop entering the profession in favor of other career choices. The regional level has made some advances in terms of starting salaries via the use of hiring bonuses, but very little of this was due to any union involvement. The scarcity of a resource is what prompted the improvements. Some regional's ponied up, while other's are still a wait -and-see mentality and use programs to defray cost's (cadet, RTP, flow) than make any kind of long term improvement. Personally I think the unions work more in the favor of the airline than the pilot, via your dues to fund their management of us.

In a parallel universe I would love to see how airlines would function without the presence of unions. I have a feeling it would be much better for pilots.

2 cents