I think another strong indicator of what’s to come is keeping one’s finger on the pulse of major/legacy hiring competitive minimums. Right now they have tons of qualified applicants kicking down the doors, but I would suspect the competitive minimums will start to decrease in the coming years...

I think the biggest question is the fate of all of these people hired by the regionals in the past few years. Will mainline take them with the background issues?

What kind of background issues?

Republic hired many who had checkride and even some legal issues. They were very desperate in the past, but not anymore.

The regional's in the past few years have accepted people with much less experience, less education, more training failures, more speeding tickets and/or other run-ins with the law, and similar issues than the majors have - historically - accepted in new hires. The regional's did that, of course, because they were desperate, but it seems unlikely that the majors will ever be that desperate. So will this group wind up permanently capped as captains in the regionals? Or will they be accepted by the majors?

That's pretty much the question.

I can see where that would cause some not to be able to upgrade to the majors. I am making a career change and my goal right now is the regionals once I reach ATP mins. I already know going in that for me to get past the regionals I will either have to get a degree or the majors will have to loosen the requirements of having to have a degree. As of right now I am ok with making a career at the regionals.

I think it’s all about being honest , if you had a run in with the law be transparent I had a friend who had a run in with the law and told United about it right now he’s in the right seat of a 737 .

Seasonal pause. I expect it to pick up soon. The poster that noted Sr fo’s leaving regionals is right on. The mid level captains and senior fo’s are the ones leaving at Mesa on the crj side. There isn’t enough of a pay bump vs QOL to get people wanting to upgrade. While things were better for a month we are falling back down into being short again overall and especially short of captains.

There is always going to be a quality cut between regionals and majors. The pay alone will allow the majors to attract people who would not be attracted to regional life (many corporate and mil pilots for example).

I think standards will drop a bit, but what I have observed is that *some* folks with background issues can move beyond it, while others cannot.

Factors include the nature and number of glitches, and where they fall in your timeline. A single glitch while young can be chalked up to a learning experience, as long as the lesson was learned. Even a pattern of glitches at a young age might be tolerable, with time passed and no recent occurrences.

Issues at an older age (25+) are going to be more problematic, and they will want to see plenty of time passed, like ten years for anything significant like DUI. A pattern of of problems for older person is going to pretty much be a no-go for most majors (and some regionals).

For those with issues, whether you can overcome the past depends also on how you address those past issues (get professional interview prep). Also you want to look like a great all-around professional pilot and person who just hit a speedpump in life, so multiple type ratings, TPIC, instructor duty, leadership, community involvement will all help of course.

But at some point the majors will simply draw a hard line, and sponsor squeeky-clean kids via ab initio programs rather than keep lowering standards. I suspect that point is someone with legal issues as an older adult, or a pattern of issues over time. At some point they might simply prefer to slow growth or even park planes, but I don't know what their threshold really is for that.

stolen from another site, there is a BIG wave coming

http://i68.tinypic.com/iwiudt.jpg