Best "real" flow to a major?

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03-29-2019 | 06:16 AM

#11

Flyboy68

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Phoenix21

Envoy and Piedmont are both approximately 10 year flows for new hires. Piedmont stopped taking planes due to staffing and is actually shrinking right now pilot group wise so it’s flow may increase by a few years as the number of people drop below the thresholds for increased flow #s. PSA is a bit longer.

If you’re looking for speed of flow it would go:
Envoy
Piedmont
PSA

If you’re looking for long term QOL while you have flow in your back pocket:
PSA
Envoy
Piedmont

If you’re looking for company that will most likely be around until you flow:
Envoy
PSA

Thanks.

filler

03-29-2019 | 06:24 AM

#12

stabapch

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Flyboy68

Which regional has the best "real" flow to a major whether it's a CPP or flow?

Basically, who sends the most regional pilots (CA's and FO's) to a major through their program?

Thanks in advance.

None.

The best “real” flow is your resume, background and network. It’s guaranteed no matter whose name is on your paycheck.

AA WO’s are the only ones with hard flows, but most average applicants will get on with a major well before their number is up if they try. The CPP, DGI and whatever else there is now are just tools for the recruiting teams.

03-29-2019 | 06:27 AM

#13

dera

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From: Whale FO

Quote:

Originally Posted by Phoenix21

Where does this 10 years come from? The union prediction is 8.8 years, and that’s the absolute worst case scenario prediction. First year it drops by 2:1 ratio.

03-29-2019 | 06:48 AM

#14

word302

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From: 737 FO

Quote:

Originally Posted by dera

Where does this 10 years come from? The union prediction is 8.8 years, and that’s the absolute worst case scenario prediction. First year it drops by 2:1 ratio.

What you fail to understand is that a projected flow is worth about as much as a projected upgrade. Things change. If you think the flow will continue as it is now for the next decade you're not very smart and haven't studied your history very well. At what point will the flow get throttled because it's taking more than you are able to hire? Do you think AA will just shrink you?

03-29-2019 | 07:17 AM

#15

dera

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From: Whale FO

Quote:

Originally Posted by word302

Just as relevant as talking about 10 years.
If we are talking about projections, talk about projections, not crap that you made up in your head.

03-29-2019 | 07:25 AM

#16

flydiamond

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Quote:

Originally Posted by PotatoChip

Envoy is sending the most pilots to a legacy...

Not defending the coin flip SSP / DGI, but I believe that Endeavor has actually sent more pilots to mainline Delta than Envoy to AA, at least looking back the last 5 years. 800+ Pilots. Similar sized airlines. Whether this will keep up especially with Delta’s hiring slowing down tremendously is anyone’s guess, and the flow is certainly better than the DGI.

03-29-2019 | 07:29 AM

#17

Flyboy68

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This is a post of mine from another thread. AA is in some deep $hit concerning retirements in the next decade.

Quote:

Yeah, AA will be the hardest hit by retirements in the next 10 years.

01/01/2019 - 12/31/2019 637

01/01/2020 - 12/31/2020 772

01/01/2021 - 12/31/2021 840

01/01/2022 - 12/31/2022 861

01/01/2023 - 12/31/2023 957

01/01/2024 - 12/31/2024 932

01/01/2025 - 12/31/2025 951

01/01/2026 - 12/31/2026 908

01/01/2027 - 12/31/2027 770

01/01/2028 - 12/31/2028 676

Over 8300 retirements from AA in the next 10 years.

Seriously, where the hell is AA gonna find over 8300 pilots in the next 10 years?

03-29-2019 | 07:36 AM

#18

Varsity

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From: 175 CA

A 2014 hire at envoy will flow in 6 years. After that it gets longer.

Someone hired today 8-10 years probably.

Piedmont has the fastest flow.

03-29-2019 | 07:37 AM

#19

Excargodog

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Flyboy68

This is a post of mine from another thread. AA is in some deep $hit concerning retirements in the next decade.
Seriously, where the hell is AA gonna find over 8300 pilots in the next 10 years?

What everybody forgets is that the USAF cranks out about 1200 FW pilots a year and the Navy maybe a third of that. Now granted, not all of those people will go into the 121 world and they get distributed to ALL of the industry, not just AA, but they make a huge difference. More recently, you can add the military RTP aviators to the mix.

Anyone supposing the majors are going to get desperate next year or next decade is wrong. Opportunities will be improved - unless the economy tanks or oil hits 200 a barrel - but the top tier majors are not ever going to have to be begging anyone to come work for them.

03-29-2019 | 07:44 AM

#20

Flyboy68

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Excargodog

What everybody forgets is that the USAF cranks out about 1200 FW pilots a year and the Navy maybe a third of that. Now granted, not all of those people will go into the 121 world and they get distributed to ALL of the industry, not just AA, but they make a huge difference. More recently, you can add the military RTP aviators to the mix.

Anyone supposing the majors are going to get desperate next year or next decade is wrong. Opportunities will be improved - unless the economy tanks or oil hits 200 a barrel - but the top tier majors are not ever going to have to be begging anyone to come work for them.

I know they won't be begging, but they'll have to adjust/lower their standards/criteria significantly to hire those numbers.