We lose about 5% of the seniority list every month at my airline. Even if SKW lost half that they’d still need to hire 110+ a month just to keep up with attrition.

 

We're already at 4900 pilots. Wouldn't surprise me if we hit 5300-5500 by the end of the year. We're constantly short-staffed as the company picks up slack for other regionals that can't staff. Legacies aren't losing many pilots to other carriers. American will need to come close to those numbers to keep up with attrition.

 

There have been RAND studies on this very topic.

https://www.rand.org/pubs/documented...ngs/DB118.html

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/ran...AND_RR1455.pdf

 

Speaking of flow, how does being part of an airline with a preferential hiring scheme affect one’s chances of being hired outside of such scheme? In other words, if someone wants to go to AA outside the flow, is he/she better off not going to a WO? Would someone willing to go to Delta better off not being at Endeavor? United/CPP?

 

AA hired an average of four WO pilots outside the flow each month in 2018, on top of the flows it took. Folks can and do get hired on at AA outside the flow.

 

That second study is very insightful (mainly because it is so much more recent than the first). Thx for posting.

 

Quite the opposite is actually true. AA has already stated they have a preference to WO pilots both with the flows and hiring WO pilots outside the flow. I know several hired at American outside the flow from my AAG regional.

 

Depends on how much of a conspiracy theorist to whom you're talking is.

At Endeavor, if you pass the marks to get an OTS Delta interview, then you're probably in as good a shape as anyone to land the job there. If you can't get the interview OTS, well... there's a reason that it's called the DGI, not the DGJ. It doesn't mean that you can't pass the interview, but having Endeavor experience is far from a silver bullet.

 

I dont know much about SkyWest but it doesn't seem unlikely to me. If you cut SkyWest numbers in half you get roughly Envoy numbers. 2400 pilots with 750ish(+900 pilots in 2017) on average since 2016.

Regional airlines have a much higher attrition rate than mainline.

 

Here is my 2¢, pick an airline with CPP if you are just now getting into the 121 world. First, I know it’s not a true flow but you know whether you are accepted with in the first year. If United says no, jump over to a AA regional and wait the 8 years for the flow.(or go to a LCC or ACMI) The CPP programs are also much faster with most sending people in the 5 year mark consistently. Look at long term planning, if you make it to United in about 5 years you will be right at the beginning of their huge retirement wave. If you join an AA regional now and flow in 7-10 years you will be at the very back of their retirement wave. This difference in seniority at the major might be significant enough where if you go to AA you might never get the chance to upgrade, and if you do it will be in the last few years of your career. If you go to United right at the beginning of the hiring wave you will have a huge boost in seniority every year which will not only speed up the upgrade but will also help move into the widebody fleet of you so choose. Lastly is the other programs like DGI, I would steer clear of these as you have to wait years to find out your status of progression. At least with a CPP you know fast and can make adjustments if needed.