a merger would make sense. no more whipsaw.....The end and united we stand

 

I see what you are saying, but it would not make any business sense for DAL management. I do not think merger between XJ and CZ is even a remote possibility. Even less of a chance for merger between XJ and Comair. It is cheaper for DAL to operate XJ, CZ, and Comair separately. CZ is the cheapest of the three. Probably cheaper than any of the DCIs.

I do not think XJ will get any turboprops to replace Saabs, either. DAL management has said many times that Saabs and other turboprops do not meet their concept of DAL quality product.

I also do not think XJ will get any significant flying out of CVG, if any. Any increase out of CVG flying, IF ANY, will go to Comair.

Flying out of SLC has been steady albeit changes in quantity. I am seeing steady overnights at SLC on most pairings. DAL is measuring the peformance of XJ out of SLC to various western cities served by DAL. If you look at December pairings, there are a lot of pairings with SLC stops that also has overnights in SFO and SAT. They also added Spokane, Washington as an overnight city for Dec. The main reason for this is obvious. DAL has been burned in the past by Comair by their complete reliance on one DCI out of certain cities. Right now SLC is dominated by SkyWest. If DAL relationship with SkyWest deteriorated for any reason in 2010 or beyond, DAL does not want to stuck in the same frustrating situation they were back in 2000 and 2001. For this reason alone, I expect to see steady increase of SLC flying for XJ in 2010.

As for making SLC an XJ pilot base, I have heard this is not an option at this point, but if you see a notable increase in blocked hours out of SLC in 2010, it is a good bet that SLC will become the next XJ base. XJ pilots are already allowed to use DAL crew bagroom and DAL crewroom at SLC.
But this is just a conjecture based on what we know today. Things could change just like that in few weeks, or months.

 

I'm curious to see what will happen in SLC. For one, I know 12 Airbus's are going out there in January to be based for NWA/DAL and some of the MD's will be coming to MSP, you will see the heavy flying (747 & 330) shift to other domestic bases and the (767 & 777) will take their place with the smaller market in MSP. Does this mean since the market has shrunken so much in MSP, that we will see more 50-76 seat aircraft out of the Twin Cities? Who knows....nothing like taken 13 people to STL on a 76 seat RJ

While I know SKW represents a percentage of flying in SLC, I still find it odd that SLC was only supposed to last 2-4 months tops and yet here we are, 9 months later still doing it. As far as the other bases are concerned a buddy over at CZ told me that the Embraer base in MEM will prob be moving to LGA sometime early next year. They seem to be ramping up for alot of flying out of there with the gate swaps.

While from a seniority integration, a merger wouldn't make sense, but from a cost standpoint it would...as long as there were appropriate fences in place (Common Fleet type betwen XJ & Comair). One management team for all the wholly owned (who still wouldn't know what they are doing)...and one flow through program to DAL...

BIG QUESTION: Once they get rid of all the Saabs what will they need the B gates for in MSP? From what I understand you can't park a 200 in the alley on the B gates...could be wrong though

 

Man you guys are making some sharp observations. Yeah, you are right. When Xj first started flying out of SLC, many, especially SkyWest people said how they have to have certain percentage of flying and that XJ would only be there for few months at best. Well, we are going into December and Xj is doing more flying out of SLC than ever before. Now XJ even has overnights in SFO, SAT and Spokane.

You are right about LGA flying. I have observed that and I have heard that CZ will most likely share that flying with Comair and XJ may do a little. Seems like DAL is splitting up certain sectors between XJ, Comair and CZ. CZ seems to be getting the LGA flying, and XJ seems to be getting more flying out to the West and Midwest. In between, XJ is also getting cities like IAD out of MSP, and SLC to various western destinations.

As for MSP flying, few well respected aviation analysts have predicted that MSP will be relegated to more DCI flying whereas hubs like DTW and ATL, LAX and SLC will get more international flying.

I still do not think merger will happen. DAL management does not want to buy into additional headache of trying to merge very senior Comair pilots with senior XJ pilots. A stronger possibility will be for DAL to sell one of its wholly owned regionals. We all know DAL was unable to sell Comair. No one wants to buy Comair at this point. Comair is saddled with a long list of very senior pilots and way too many 50 seat RJs. So that leaves XJ and CZ. Who will go first is the question.

 

So, rather than throwing out unsuppported comments like a know-it-all teenager from the cheap seats, why don't you elighten us all? If you know something, share it. Not once in any of the posts I've made recently did I say "this is a fact", but I did say things like "please correct me if I'm wrong". The only fact is that most of my comments were clearly written as opinion. As for the facts, I would laugh openly, loudly, and unapologetically in the face of anybody who says they know what's going to happen in the next year. All we can do is guess, which is what I was doing, based on numerous pieces of information. Unless you're Richard Anderson, the only thing we can do is take pieces of information (hope they're right) and try to piece them together like some kind of f'ed up jigsaw puzzle where the final picture to be made is unknown. So, please give us your insight to help in that effort.

This is exactly why I generally only read these forums and do not participate in a discussion. There are very few people on here capable of actually having a constructive conversation. The vast majority of the posts I've made on here were from at least a year or two ago.

 

Mesaba recently offered use of the DTW crewroom to the Comair pilots as well. They are getting increased flying there and there is speculation of them opening a DTW base in the not too distant future. (possible Pinnacle replacement in case of strike???) I would love to get our base back in CVG and there are still some of us from those days working here that would jump at the chance to go back. There are several that would also jump at the chance to go to a SLC base. For now though everyone is just hoping to keep what we currently have.

 

It's not a headache for management. They simply say that Comair and Mesaba are merging, and the union hashes it out. No headache on their part. That's what arbitrators are for.

Also, some XJ guys seem certain that Compass will get sold just because the E175 burns slightly more fuel then the CRJ-900, and because Comair and XJ have a common fleet. That's no reason to sell Compass, and reduce the amount of 76 seat jets flying in the system. You have to understand that the 76 seat product is VERY important to management, and they want all that they currently have. The 76 seat jet allows 2 class service, and the ability to sell 1st Class tickets is important to them. It's also important to have 1st class available for frequent fliers to upgrade to.

Compass will also be valuable in NY, because a long taxi in a CRJ900 is far more UNcomfortable then in a E175. Plus, the overheads are better. And who would they sell Compass to? RAH? Why sell a valuable product to a direct competitor? RAH is not going to be able to just pop those E175's into the DCI system. RAH would have to keep the flow, otherwise DAL loses a large amount of 76 seaters.

Selling Compass would cause a MUCH larger headache then simply merging Comair and Mesaba.

 

No one here is advocating selling CZ nor are we saying it will happen for sure. You are reading into things that are not there. All I am saying is that merger is highly unlikely from a business standpoint and it is more plausible that DAL will sell one of its regionals sometime in the future. I would suggest RAH is not the only possible buyer. If a sale is made, and I am not saying it will happen, it could be to a third party holding corporation or an investor unrelated to RAH or SkyWest.

The merger between XJ and CZ or Comair is more unlikely than being sold off. I am not sure why you and some people outside XJ seems to think merger between XJ and Comair is even a possibility in light of the path DAL seems to be headed. No one I have spoken to at XJ or at DAL seems to think that is likely. DAL will lose the whipsawing ability and it would be cheaper to operate XJ, CZ and Comair separately.

E175s are more comfortable for sure but your statement that during taxi E175 is more comfortable is a little absurd. I've sat in both XJ CRJ900 and CZ E175s as a passenger and the difference during taxi is none existent and if there is, it is minute and certainly not enough for DAL management to prefer one over the other. The perceptible difference comes in the bigger overhead bins and slightly wider cabin which helps during long cruise. DAL management does not seem too concerned with slight difference in comfort between CRJ9s and E175s. The bottom line is CRJ9s are more cost effective according to the DAL and it's been my experience, bottom line counts more than passenger comfort.

There are strong indications that RAH would not have been able to get away with buying Frontier and Midwest without DAL's tacit approval. RAH is not DAL's competitor. RAH is one of DAL's DCI and they will probably continue to do so until their contract expires in 2013.

 

Perhaps, but it still does not address the fact that the flow would have to remain intact otherwise a large amount of RJs would have to be removed. Don't be so sure that a merger won't happen. You may wind up disappointed.

 

Sorry for popping in the Mesaba thread, just wanted to pass along some more info and add some fuel to the fire.

We had a conference call 2 days ago here at Comair for furloughed pilots. The merger topic came up. According to our MEC they are getting closer to this merger and are about 70% there, however, apparently there is one DCI carrier that is not fully on board and doesn't want to merge. It was not mentioned which one, but I can tell you it's either XJ or CZ... Haha!

Someone mentioned earlier about Comair possibly opening a DTW base. We will be doing about 13% of our flying out of DTW come this Spring. We are already operating numerous flights in/out of MSP and DTW. Word is there will be no new bases though for Comair. I think we will continue to see some More shifting in flying going into the new year for every DCI carrier.