I've corresponded with Ftroop a few times, he's good at lookin at the evidence out there and predicting where the puzzle pieces come together. His source is right in front of you.

 

I guess you are right at that. I was just curious about his sources because he has made some astonishingly accurate positive predictions regarding Mesaba when other naysayers saying some negative things about Mesaba.

 

I'm just reading from the contract. It states that the 1000hrs/2yrs service can be reduced as necessary to fill a vacancy. So, basically, if they need to drop it, it's effectively dropped. I read it as a fancy way of saying "we'd like the captains to have this much experience". If the senior FO's aren't going for the Saab CA slots (I'd guess they're waiting for jet slots a few to several months away), then the junior FO's are going to get them, provided they have the ATP minimums.

If the company would prefer more experienced Saab Captains, the only way they're going to get it is to lift the Saab Captain seat lock. That way, the senior FO's could sit in the Saab Capt seats until the Jet Capt seats open up. Meanwhile the new hire guys will at least get to see a winter, and maybe another summer from the right seat. Then, as jet slots open up, the new hire guys, who would then be more experienced, can step up to the Saab Captain slots.

However, I don't think our corporate leadership even knows about these subtleties, much less cares about them. They will take every nickel they can save, and pay themselves bigger bonuses. That's just simply what they do and where they place their priorities.

It's entirely possible that some new hires could end up as jet captains, while more senior Saab guys squirm in their seat locks. Company experience isn't a consideration. What we'll end up with is junior Saab Captains, and then eventually even more junior Jet Captains. I'm not at all dissing the new hires. I'm just mulling this situation over.

 

Appreciate the compliments. Can't release my sources but here are my "methods"

1. "No vested interest." Unemotional review of all information gathered.
2. Put the puzzle together - no one source. Many publications, etc.
3. Listen to everybody but eliminate emotionally charged crap.
4. Narrow information down to what makes "good business" sense.
5. Don't "color" information with Pilot, union or management viewpoint.

Then it becomes a SWAG - Sophisticated Wild A** Guess. I have 10,000 Hrs, ATP and am a retired Business Management Professor who taught graduate level Aviation Safety and Air Carrier Management Courses. My wife and I have lived on a sailboat the last four years and watching the airline industry is a passion - not a vocation.

MY prediction - major crisis in airline industry with shortage of "qualified pilots." Companies who have staffed up early (this summer), have professional training programs, high standards and treat employees with respect (has nothing to do with pay) will survive. This fall many young pilots will jump ship from poorly managed companies and flock to the ones they percieve will survive. A number of Comuter airline companies will shut down because they cannot meet their schedule committments.

Compass pilots will be absorbed by NWA. Their aircraft could go to NWA or (my prediction) - Mesaba. SAAB fleet will gradually be decreased.

I am VERY concerned that some companies will lower their training standards and "pass people through" just to keep staffing up. Pencil whipped training programs and low experienced (I did not say low hours) pilots increase the probability of accidents.

Pay will increase. Forget the BS about going back to 'where we were" and think about survival individually and as a company. Collectively a pilot group is the "heart and soul" of an airline - especially a comuter airline. They are young, smart career motivated, and too often make posts that reflect "ranging hormones" rather then good sense.

Do you respect yourself, your fellow pilots and your company ? I didn't ask if you like them. If there is a collective mutual respect (individual, group, company) then the company will probably survive the impending crisis. It doesn't take much reading to tell those airlines where pilots have little self respect, fight each other, and wish their employer ill will.

I hope it all "shakes out" without any accidents.

Now that I have "ranted" (made up for few posts the last few months) I'm going to do something intellectually challenging - the laundry.

 

Ftrooppilot...nice job

 

Ftrooppilot,
Thanks for your input. Living on a sailboat sounds like fun. My girlfriend's dad had a friend who lived on a sailboat in southern California.
If Compass is going to be absorbed by NWA, I wonder if I made a mistake turning down an offer to interview from Compass. (probably not).
Keep up with your insightful analysis. Your method seems to be working great. I look forward to reading some more of your detailed analysis.

 

Nice Work, hey by chance did you ever teach at Riddle...and what are your thoughts on Comair, I just learn a new acronym Swag.. LOL

 

Yes.

Regarding Comair: great potential - some internal hemoraging - perhaps just growing pains. IMHO Operations management needs to show more leadership skills. You can't be a leader unless you have followers.

Everyone on the forum is doing trend analysis. You are watching what the other guy is doing. Mesaba has 56,705 views and 886 replys to two posts on hiring. They are the most reviewed Regional. Why ? It's not just curiosity. There is an element of deference present - "We watch because they seem to be doing things better. " I believe Mesaba has exceptional operations management.

That doesn't imply others are doing it wrong.

The difference is how well HRO, Ops, Scheduling and Training work together.


-

 

Thank you Professor

 

Hey Ftrooppilot,

Your posts are very entertaining and show great insight. Give us a few words on the potential NWA/Delta merger... after you finish up the laundry of course.

BTW, thanks for your comments on XJ, it's nice to hear every once in a while.

-IHM