Does AA liquidate one WO
05-17-2020 | 06:35 PM
#181
Eating A Gruben
Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 1,065
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What confuses you about what I’m saying?
05-17-2020 | 08:14 PM
#182
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2020
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Chapter 11 doesn’t scare me. Even if that means selling off the wholly owneds to a different holding company...
What scares me is if AA goes away completely. I know that major US cities will still need lift. But I also know that the market can easily shed an airline and not miss a beat. Even one the size of AA...
What scares me is if AA goes away completely. I know that major US cities will still need lift. But I also know that the market can easily shed an airline and not miss a beat. Even one the size of AA...
05-17-2020 | 09:07 PM
#183
Line Holder
Joined: Mar 2019
Posts: 79
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Lol you F9 guys know how to drink the kool-aid. Everyone is in the same boat here. If travel gets back to 60% by September everyone will survive. Enough government cash and cost cutting to make it to a February vaccine. If we're below 50% by September it'll be because of some nasty new development and everybody will be in serious trouble. Franke will pull that glorious golden parachute and wave while you spiral down.
05-18-2020 | 03:18 AM
#184
Thread Starter
Banned
Joined: May 2017
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But another airline wouldn’t need to do it, the whole industry would.
Aaaaaall depends how fast the pax come back
05-18-2020 | 04:30 AM
#185
Perennial Reserve
Joined: Jan 2018
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Except right now most of those almost a thousand planes are parked and producing no revenue while the loans they were bought with are coming due.
Boeing CEO is predicting one of the airlines could easily go bankrupt:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/boe...ps-51589294871
And it’s widely assumed he means one of the Big Three. Of the three, United, Delta, and AA, which do YOU think is most likely to fail? And seriously, everyone else - even F9, NK, Jet Blue, SWA, and Alaska, Heck even Breeze, has excess capacity right now and excess pilots. It would be fairly simple for the other airlines to take up the slack domestically and right now no one is flying much internationally. The two remaining Big Three airlines could pick up the long haul widebody aircraft at fire sale prices from the bankruptcy - same for the many undelivered and currently undeliverable MAXs leftover at Boeing from now defunct foreign carriers - and unfurlough a few of their pilots and pretty easily meet that demand right now and grow it as it comes back.
I’m not saying it’s going to happen and I certainly don’t want it to happen and it isn’t like being the CEO of Boeing has made you Nostradamus or anything (look at the current mess Boeing is in) but it certainly COULD happen and if it does happen to one of the Big Three, well AA seems to be in the most perilous position right now.
Look at the comparative credit default swap prices on all the major carriers. Who is the market betting against?
05-18-2020 | 04:33 AM
#186
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 4,601
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From: CRJ FO
Lol you F9 guys know how to drink the kool-aid. Everyone is in the same boat here. If travel gets back to 60% by September everyone will survive. Enough government cash and cost cutting to make it to a February vaccine. If we're below 50% by September it'll be because of some nasty new development and everybody will be in serious trouble. Franke will pull that glorious golden parachute and wave while you spiral down.
05-18-2020 | 04:54 AM
#187
Eating A Gruben
Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 1,065
Likes: 0
[QUOTE=Excargodog;3058612]
Boeing CEO is predicting one of the airlines could easily go bankrupt:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/boe...ps-51589294871
And it’s widely assumed he means one of the Big Three./[QUOTE]
I have read no where, any indication whatsoever, which airlines he was talking about. He said “major airline”, which is a pretty long list.
I personally want to see you, Chrisreed, and Rick put some predictions out there for what the 2022 airline world looks like so that we can stop beating around the bush.
I’ll go first: the big three will exist in smaller form, about 3/4 pre covid size. The three WOs will still exist, and chris will get to take his golden ticket to the bank three years later than expected. Yay. One regional that is flying today will cease operations.
Boeing CEO is predicting one of the airlines could easily go bankrupt:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/boe...ps-51589294871
And it’s widely assumed he means one of the Big Three./[QUOTE]
I have read no where, any indication whatsoever, which airlines he was talking about. He said “major airline”, which is a pretty long list.
I personally want to see you, Chrisreed, and Rick put some predictions out there for what the 2022 airline world looks like so that we can stop beating around the bush.
I’ll go first: the big three will exist in smaller form, about 3/4 pre covid size. The three WOs will still exist, and chris will get to take his golden ticket to the bank three years later than expected. Yay. One regional that is flying today will cease operations.
05-18-2020 | 05:46 AM
#188
Perennial Reserve
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 14,251
Likes: 257
[QUOTE=sanicom3205;3058623][QUOTE=Excargodog;3058612]
Boeing CEO is predicting one of the airlines could easily go bankrupt:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/boe...ps-51589294871
And it’s widely assumed he means one of the Big Three./
I have read no where, any indication whatsoever, which airlines he was talking about. He said “major airline”, which is a pretty long list.
I personally want to see you, Chrisreed, and Rick put some predictions out there for what the 2022 airline world looks like so that we can stop beating around the bush.
I’ll go first: the big three will exist in smaller form, about 3/4 pre covid size. The three WOs will still exist, and chris will get to take his golden ticket to the bank three years later than expected. Yay. One regional that is flying today will cease operations.
I actually think domestic flying will return fairly quickly. It’s international flying that will badly lag. The reason that targets the Big Three is that they DO most of the international flying. The big problem is the aircraft types they do that with, disproportionately long range wide body aircraft that are optimized for that function but are less economical and adaptable for domestic use. For domestic use the single type airlines like SWA,NK, and F9, Have a HUGE advantage In the present situation with JetBlue and Alaska close behind.
The reason for that is that the WB international stuff pays more and the senior pilots tend to be disproportionately in those aircraft. So when they go to shrink to 3/4 size, what happens? The aircraft that are actually being flown domestically are Disproportionately single aisle narrow body with relatively junior crews. Well, you can’t furlough those junior crews until you have someone to replace them. Those people must be drawn from the senior people. But you’ve got a fleet that has nine Different type Ratings (Delta and AA) or Six different type ratings (United) which starts a training cascade. Some of these senior guys who are being displaced last previous type rating was for a 727 or some other aircraft not in the inventory but even if they once flew a 320, they are going to bid down to whatever pays the mist at a base they want, That starts a training cascade. Furloughing one quarter of the most junior guys can easily cause five training events, half of them type ratings, which will overload any training department in existence. It will also take time - time in which your most expensive pilots will be collecting pay without contributing any revenue production. In the interim the multi fleet airline simply BLEEDS money. And even when it is finally accomplished, they will have eventually retained the more expensive very senior guys with relatively less productivity (because their seniority entitles them to more vacation, etc,) who will have to be retrained back into their old aircraft if the recovery proceeds.
By comparison, F9 (for instance) simply furloughs their junior FIs and downgrades their junior captains with little muss, fuss, training, or displacement cost. They are not doing multiple type rating training fir every junior guy they let go because everyone at F9 already has a 320 type rating from F9.
That is the difference, and it is a huge one.
With no shortage of available gates or aircraft, cheap gas, and cheap used aircraft and parts, the cost per seat mile will be the main factor in determining survival, and this will hugely favor the single type fleet airlines. I expect SWA, F9, and NK to take considerable domestic market share from the Big Three. Even Breeze , who wasn’t expected to make a profit the first few years anyway benefits because they will have cheap aircraft, cheap fuel, Readily available Mx personnel, and not a single pilot on the list over first year pay while the Big Three (or by then Big Two) might not have any on the list under year five pay.
Boeing CEO is predicting one of the airlines could easily go bankrupt:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/boe...ps-51589294871
And it’s widely assumed he means one of the Big Three./
I have read no where, any indication whatsoever, which airlines he was talking about. He said “major airline”, which is a pretty long list.
I personally want to see you, Chrisreed, and Rick put some predictions out there for what the 2022 airline world looks like so that we can stop beating around the bush.
I’ll go first: the big three will exist in smaller form, about 3/4 pre covid size. The three WOs will still exist, and chris will get to take his golden ticket to the bank three years later than expected. Yay. One regional that is flying today will cease operations.
The reason for that is that the WB international stuff pays more and the senior pilots tend to be disproportionately in those aircraft. So when they go to shrink to 3/4 size, what happens? The aircraft that are actually being flown domestically are Disproportionately single aisle narrow body with relatively junior crews. Well, you can’t furlough those junior crews until you have someone to replace them. Those people must be drawn from the senior people. But you’ve got a fleet that has nine Different type Ratings (Delta and AA) or Six different type ratings (United) which starts a training cascade. Some of these senior guys who are being displaced last previous type rating was for a 727 or some other aircraft not in the inventory but even if they once flew a 320, they are going to bid down to whatever pays the mist at a base they want, That starts a training cascade. Furloughing one quarter of the most junior guys can easily cause five training events, half of them type ratings, which will overload any training department in existence. It will also take time - time in which your most expensive pilots will be collecting pay without contributing any revenue production. In the interim the multi fleet airline simply BLEEDS money. And even when it is finally accomplished, they will have eventually retained the more expensive very senior guys with relatively less productivity (because their seniority entitles them to more vacation, etc,) who will have to be retrained back into their old aircraft if the recovery proceeds.
By comparison, F9 (for instance) simply furloughs their junior FIs and downgrades their junior captains with little muss, fuss, training, or displacement cost. They are not doing multiple type rating training fir every junior guy they let go because everyone at F9 already has a 320 type rating from F9.
That is the difference, and it is a huge one.
With no shortage of available gates or aircraft, cheap gas, and cheap used aircraft and parts, the cost per seat mile will be the main factor in determining survival, and this will hugely favor the single type fleet airlines. I expect SWA, F9, and NK to take considerable domestic market share from the Big Three. Even Breeze , who wasn’t expected to make a profit the first few years anyway benefits because they will have cheap aircraft, cheap fuel, Readily available Mx personnel, and not a single pilot on the list over first year pay while the Big Three (or by then Big Two) might not have any on the list under year five pay.
Last edited by Excargodog; 05-18-2020 at 06:00 AM.
05-18-2020 | 06:37 AM
#189
Eating A Gruben
Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 1,065
Likes: 0
[QUOTE=Excargodog;3058662][QUOTE=sanicom3205;3058623]
Boeing CEO is predicting one of the airlines could easily go bankrupt:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/boe...ps-51589294871
And it’s widely assumed he means one of the Big Three./
I actually think domestic flying will return fairly quickly. It’s international flying that will badly lag. The reason that targets the Big Three is that they DO most of the international flying. The big problem is the aircraft types they do that with, disproportionately long range wide body aircraft that are optimized for that function but are less economical and adaptable for domestic use. For domestic use the single type airlines like SWA,NK, and F9, Have a HUGE advantage In the present situation with JetBlue and Alaska close behind.
The reason for that is that the WB international stuff pays more and the senior pilots tend to be disproportionately in those aircraft. So when they go to shrink to 3/4 size, what happens? The aircraft that are actually being flown domestically are Disproportionately single aisle narrow body with relatively junior crews. Well, you can’t furlough those junior crews until you have someone to replace them. Those people must be drawn from the senior people. But you’ve got a fleet that has nine Different type Ratings (Delta and AA) or Six different type ratings (United) which starts a training cascade. Some of these senior guys who are being displaced last previous type rating was for a 727 or some other aircraft not in the inventory but even if they once flew a 320, they are going to bid down to whatever pays the mist at a base they want, That starts a training cascade. Furloughing one quarter of the most junior guys can easily cause five training events, half of them type ratings, which will overload any training department in existence. It will also take time - time in which your most expensive pilots will be collecting pay without contributing any revenue production. In the interim the multi fleet airline simply BLEEDS money. And even when it is finally accomplished, they will have eventually retained the more expensive very senior guys with relatively less productivity (because their seniority entitles them to more vacation, etc,) who will have to be retrained back into their old aircraft if the recovery proceeds.
By comparison, F9 (for instance) simply furloughs their junior FIs and downgrades their junior captains with little muss, fuss, training, or displacement cost. They are not doing multiple type rating training fir every junior guy they let go because everyone at F9 already has a 320 type rating from F9.
That is the difference, and it is a huge one.
With no shortage of available gates or aircraft, cheap gas, and cheap used aircraft and parts, the cost per seat mile will be the main factor in determining survival, and this will hugely favor the single type fleet airlines. I expect SWA, F9, and NK to take considerable domestic market share from the Big Three. Even Breeze , who wasn’t expected to make a profit the first few years anyway benefits because they will have cheap aircraft, cheap fuel, Readily available Mx personnel, and not a single pilot on the list over first year pay while the Big Three (or by then Big Two) might not have any on the list under year five pay.
Thank you for explaining how a displacement bid works I guess.
The big three are all dealing with that right now. As for wide body flying, UAL leads the charge in the US. They also are back of the pack in domestic market share. So by your own logic, who is left most vulnerable here? You didn't talk about debt like its personal finance in order to trash AA, so I'll give you points there. Some of these guys have read entirely too much seeking alpha, and take it for gold.
By your own explanation of things, AA is in better shape than UAL and DAL. We already offloaded our Mad Dogs, E190s were being parked anyway. 75/76 leaving earlier than scheduled. But with the entire mad dog fleet already trained on new airplanes, a large chunk of our displacements already happened last year. Which is why our numbers for this looming bid are far less disastrous than DAL and UAL.
Boeing CEO is predicting one of the airlines could easily go bankrupt:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/boe...ps-51589294871
And it’s widely assumed he means one of the Big Three./
I actually think domestic flying will return fairly quickly. It’s international flying that will badly lag. The reason that targets the Big Three is that they DO most of the international flying. The big problem is the aircraft types they do that with, disproportionately long range wide body aircraft that are optimized for that function but are less economical and adaptable for domestic use. For domestic use the single type airlines like SWA,NK, and F9, Have a HUGE advantage In the present situation with JetBlue and Alaska close behind.
The reason for that is that the WB international stuff pays more and the senior pilots tend to be disproportionately in those aircraft. So when they go to shrink to 3/4 size, what happens? The aircraft that are actually being flown domestically are Disproportionately single aisle narrow body with relatively junior crews. Well, you can’t furlough those junior crews until you have someone to replace them. Those people must be drawn from the senior people. But you’ve got a fleet that has nine Different type Ratings (Delta and AA) or Six different type ratings (United) which starts a training cascade. Some of these senior guys who are being displaced last previous type rating was for a 727 or some other aircraft not in the inventory but even if they once flew a 320, they are going to bid down to whatever pays the mist at a base they want, That starts a training cascade. Furloughing one quarter of the most junior guys can easily cause five training events, half of them type ratings, which will overload any training department in existence. It will also take time - time in which your most expensive pilots will be collecting pay without contributing any revenue production. In the interim the multi fleet airline simply BLEEDS money. And even when it is finally accomplished, they will have eventually retained the more expensive very senior guys with relatively less productivity (because their seniority entitles them to more vacation, etc,) who will have to be retrained back into their old aircraft if the recovery proceeds.
By comparison, F9 (for instance) simply furloughs their junior FIs and downgrades their junior captains with little muss, fuss, training, or displacement cost. They are not doing multiple type rating training fir every junior guy they let go because everyone at F9 already has a 320 type rating from F9.
That is the difference, and it is a huge one.
With no shortage of available gates or aircraft, cheap gas, and cheap used aircraft and parts, the cost per seat mile will be the main factor in determining survival, and this will hugely favor the single type fleet airlines. I expect SWA, F9, and NK to take considerable domestic market share from the Big Three. Even Breeze , who wasn’t expected to make a profit the first few years anyway benefits because they will have cheap aircraft, cheap fuel, Readily available Mx personnel, and not a single pilot on the list over first year pay while the Big Three (or by then Big Two) might not have any on the list under year five pay.
Thank you for explaining how a displacement bid works I guess.
The big three are all dealing with that right now. As for wide body flying, UAL leads the charge in the US. They also are back of the pack in domestic market share. So by your own logic, who is left most vulnerable here? You didn't talk about debt like its personal finance in order to trash AA, so I'll give you points there. Some of these guys have read entirely too much seeking alpha, and take it for gold.
By your own explanation of things, AA is in better shape than UAL and DAL. We already offloaded our Mad Dogs, E190s were being parked anyway. 75/76 leaving earlier than scheduled. But with the entire mad dog fleet already trained on new airplanes, a large chunk of our displacements already happened last year. Which is why our numbers for this looming bid are far less disastrous than DAL and UAL.
05-18-2020 | 06:54 AM
#190
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 660
Likes: 0
[QUOTE=sanicom3205;3058706][QUOTE=Excargodog;3058662]
Thank you for explaining how a displacement bid works I guess.
The big three are all dealing with that right now. As for wide body flying, UAL leads the charge in the US. They also are back of the pack in domestic market share. So by your own logic, who is left most vulnerable here? You didn't talk about debt like its personal finance in order to trash AA, so I'll give you points there. Some of these guys have read entirely too much seeking alpha, and take it for gold.
By your own explanation of things, AA is in better shape than UAL and DAL. We already offloaded our Mad Dogs, E190s were being parked anyway. 75/76 leaving earlier than scheduled. But with the entire mad dog fleet already trained on new airplanes, a large chunk of our displacements already happened last year. Which is why our numbers for this looming bid are far less disastrous than DAL and UAL.
Not to mention similar cash burn per day, while AA has far more employees on pay roll and more aircraft.
Thank you for explaining how a displacement bid works I guess.
The big three are all dealing with that right now. As for wide body flying, UAL leads the charge in the US. They also are back of the pack in domestic market share. So by your own logic, who is left most vulnerable here? You didn't talk about debt like its personal finance in order to trash AA, so I'll give you points there. Some of these guys have read entirely too much seeking alpha, and take it for gold.
By your own explanation of things, AA is in better shape than UAL and DAL. We already offloaded our Mad Dogs, E190s were being parked anyway. 75/76 leaving earlier than scheduled. But with the entire mad dog fleet already trained on new airplanes, a large chunk of our displacements already happened last year. Which is why our numbers for this looming bid are far less disastrous than DAL and UAL.
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