Does AA liquidate one WO
05-18-2020 | 07:36 AM
#192
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[QUOTE=sanicom3205;3058706][QUOTE=Excargodog;3058662]
Thank you for explaining how a displacement bid works I guess.
The big three are all dealing with that right now. As for wide body flying, UAL leads the charge in the US. They also are back of the pack in domestic market share. So by your own logic, who is left most vulnerable here? You didn't talk about debt like its personal finance in order to trash AA, so I'll give you points there. Some of these guys have read entirely too much seeking alpha, and take it for gold.
By your own explanation of things, AA is in better shape than UAL and DAL. We already offloaded our Mad Dogs, E190s were being parked anyway. 75/76 leaving earlier than scheduled. But with the entire mad dog fleet already trained on new airplanes, a large chunk of our displacements already happened last year. Which is why our numbers for this looming bid are far less disastrous than DAL and UAL.
Clearly, AA recognized the vulnerability of their many types, but they are still LEFT with several types - certainly more than their domestic competitors. But debt IS important and if you look at the credit default swaps right now, the market is betting that AA is the weakest of the Big Three. The market, of course, is not all-wise, but AA is where current credit swap sellers are seeing the most vulnerability. Doesn’t mean they are right, but it is where they are placing their bets. Ultimately, it’ll likely be won or lost in the domestic share market and SWA can certainly now use this as an opportunity to update their aging fleet at rock bottom prices if Boeing can ever get their 400 or so MAX’s that are littering their employee parking lots recertified and repainted from the livery of now defunct foreign airlines into SWA livery.
We shall see eventually. I for sure would rather be a junior FO at any of the single type fleet airlines today than a junior guy at the Big Three. HE/She is less likely to be furloughed and will likely be furloughed a far shorter period if it does happen. Just my opinion. YMMV. And anyone at any regional - wholly owned, flow, pathway program, or whatever - still lower in the pecking order than even the most furlough-bait junior FO at the Big Three.
Thank you for explaining how a displacement bid works I guess.
The big three are all dealing with that right now. As for wide body flying, UAL leads the charge in the US. They also are back of the pack in domestic market share. So by your own logic, who is left most vulnerable here? You didn't talk about debt like its personal finance in order to trash AA, so I'll give you points there. Some of these guys have read entirely too much seeking alpha, and take it for gold.
By your own explanation of things, AA is in better shape than UAL and DAL. We already offloaded our Mad Dogs, E190s were being parked anyway. 75/76 leaving earlier than scheduled. But with the entire mad dog fleet already trained on new airplanes, a large chunk of our displacements already happened last year. Which is why our numbers for this looming bid are far less disastrous than DAL and UAL.
Clearly, AA recognized the vulnerability of their many types, but they are still LEFT with several types - certainly more than their domestic competitors. But debt IS important and if you look at the credit default swaps right now, the market is betting that AA is the weakest of the Big Three. The market, of course, is not all-wise, but AA is where current credit swap sellers are seeing the most vulnerability. Doesn’t mean they are right, but it is where they are placing their bets. Ultimately, it’ll likely be won or lost in the domestic share market and SWA can certainly now use this as an opportunity to update their aging fleet at rock bottom prices if Boeing can ever get their 400 or so MAX’s that are littering their employee parking lots recertified and repainted from the livery of now defunct foreign airlines into SWA livery.
We shall see eventually. I for sure would rather be a junior FO at any of the single type fleet airlines today than a junior guy at the Big Three. HE/She is less likely to be furloughed and will likely be furloughed a far shorter period if it does happen. Just my opinion. YMMV. And anyone at any regional - wholly owned, flow, pathway program, or whatever - still lower in the pecking order than even the most furlough-bait junior FO at the Big Three.
05-18-2020 | 07:36 AM
#193
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05-18-2020 | 07:53 AM
#194
Eating A Gruben
Joined: Feb 2020
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How are Bedford's bedwetters making out during all this?
05-18-2020 | 08:04 AM
#195
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Still bitter that you got rejected and are now stuck at a WO with now ZERO flow I see.
05-18-2020 | 08:18 AM
#196
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Joined: Apr 2017
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By comparison, F9 (for instance) simply furloughs their junior FIs and downgrades their junior captains with little muss, fuss, training, or displacement cost. They are not doing multiple type rating training fir every junior guy they let go because everyone at F9 already has a 320 type rating from F9.
That is the difference, and it is a huge one.
With no shortage of available gates or aircraft, cheap gas, and cheap used aircraft and parts, the cost per seat mile will be the main factor in determining survival, and this will hugely favor the single type fleet airlines. I expect SWA, F9, and NK to take considerable domestic market share from the Big Three. Even Breeze , who wasn’t expected to make a profit the first few years anyway benefits because they will have cheap aircraft, cheap fuel, Readily available Mx personnel, and not a single pilot on the list over first year pay while the Big Three (or by then Big Two) might not have any on the list under year five pay.
05-18-2020 | 08:36 AM
#198
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Joined: Jan 2018
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Except that the big 3 tend to have more business travelers while F9 and NK are more casual, optional, travelers. Business people will have to fly again while people may not be so quick to fly to a vacation or to see family. Just something else to consider and factor in.
05-18-2020 | 08:37 AM
#199
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Except that the big 3 tend to have more business travelers while F9 and NK are more casual, optional, travelers. Business people will have to fly again while people may not be so quick to fly to a vacation or to see family. Just something else to consider and factor in.
Regional guys say “ it’s easier to fill up a 50-70 seater right now.” Legacy guys say “the lower class of the economy has been impacted the most (true) there go all of spirit and allegiants customers.” major guys say “ma and pa kettle are itching to travel, our low fares will bring them in. The legacies are too exposed internationally, and with business.”
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