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Old 07-24-2020 | 07:43 AM
  #271  
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Originally Posted by ZeroTT
AA packages the aircraft and a sweet long term contract such that anyone doing due diligence will see value
Here is how you do it AA whipsaws the regional in question down to an industry-low payscale signs a 5-10 year CBA then signs a similar length CPA, they might actually keep flow in place because its actually really helps RJ management removing experienced pilots with years of seniority and high pay and benefits from the list and replacing them with more junior personnel. But if AA can create a regional with a 200 million dollar difference between costs and a 10 year CPA they could probably get 1-1.5 billion bucks for it
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Old 07-24-2020 | 02:05 PM
  #272  
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Originally Posted by rickair7777
OO is not buying another regional in the near term, that didn't work out the last two times. Maybe only if the industry is permanently and drastically altered after covid, who knows.
How did it not work out the last two times?

OO's acquisition of two competitors eliminated two of their larger barriers to growth and gave themselves the ability to whip-saw employee groups instead of getting whipsawed. They also gutted both of those carriers of anything and everything they had that was lucrative, "merged" them together, and then packaged up the now undesirable scraps with some of their debt, and sold it to United in exchange for $100 million + contracts for more E175s.

Now United is stuck with a debt payment and an airline they couldn't even get rid of for free if they tried to.

If OO finds another opportunity to gain significant market share in 3-4 years by buying a carrier for pennies on the dollar today, they might just do it.
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Old 07-24-2020 | 05:19 PM
  #273  
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They could easily buy PSA. Our contract is up in 2023. They buy PSA in 2021, wait out the contract and absorb that flying and take that contract for themselves in 2023 and divest a skeleton of an airline.
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Old 07-24-2020 | 05:21 PM
  #274  
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Originally Posted by chrisreedrules
They could easily buy PSA. Our contract is up in 2023. They buy PSA in 2021, wait out the contract and absorb that flying and take that contract for themselves in 2023 and divest a skeleton of an airline.
Or, they could not buy PSA and still take the contract in 2023.

I don't think it will happen though. The WO's have exploded in size because they are cheap.
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Old 07-24-2020 | 05:29 PM
  #275  
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Originally Posted by chrisreedrules
They could easily buy PSA. Our contract is up in 2023. They buy PSA in 2021, wait out the contract and absorb that flying and take that contract for themselves in 2023 and divest a skeleton of an airline.
that’s an odd situation because if American wanted to do that they could just void the contract now. Now Skywest (Or Southwest) buying Mesa might make sense
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Old 07-24-2020 | 06:28 PM
  #276  
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Originally Posted by chrisreedrules
They could easily buy PSA. Our contract is up in 2023. They buy PSA in 2021, wait out the contract and absorb that flying and take that contract for themselves in 2023 and divest a skeleton of an airline.
Seems like year over year skywest is pulling back from the east. They closed their ATL and NYC bases this year. ORD and DTW are all they have East of the Mississippi. I think it’d be more likely for them to buy Mesa. Skywest operates out of both DFW and PHX, being direct competitors with Mesa. Contract is up the end of the year. Skywest buys them, takes the flying, planes, and AA would probably let them keep their 900s to satisfy the contract.
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Old 07-24-2020 | 08:28 PM
  #277  
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Originally Posted by captande
I think it’d be more likely for them to buy Mesa. Skywest operates out of both DFW and PHX, being direct competitors with Mesa. Contract is up the end of the year. Skywest buys them, takes the flying, planes, and AA would probably let them keep their 900s to satisfy the contract.
lolololol, if that makes you feel better
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Old 07-24-2020 | 08:50 PM
  #278  
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Originally Posted by normalperson
lolololol, if that makes you feel better
Just making conjecture. No one is safe right now.
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Old 07-24-2020 | 08:55 PM
  #279  
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Originally Posted by captande
Just making conjecture. No one is safe right now.
Agreed, good luck to all of us.
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Old 07-24-2020 | 09:07 PM
  #280  
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Originally Posted by threeighteen
How did it not work out the last two times?

OO's acquisition of two competitors eliminated two of their larger barriers to growth and gave themselves the ability to whip-saw employee groups instead of getting whipsawed. They also gutted both of those carriers of anything and everything they had that was lucrative, "merged" them together, and then packaged up the now undesirable scraps with some of their debt, and sold it to United in exchange for $100 million + contracts for more E175s.

Now United is stuck with a debt payment and an airline they couldn't even get rid of for free if they tried to.

If OO finds another opportunity to gain significant market share in 3-4 years by buying a carrier for pennies on the dollar today, they might just do it.
From my perspective, that wasn't exactly the plan. Trust me SGU was never for a minute happy with how any of that turned out. They do not want a merger with a union carrier (esp ALPA). They do not want a common-carrier petition either, which means they have to keep an acquired regional at arms length with it's own HQ and overhead... defeats the economy of scale.

If they want more capacity, they'll grow it, just like they've done countless times in the past. They can afford to buy planes (especially now, just go out to the desert and pick out the ones you like). If they opened a hiring window tonight, they'd have 1,000 applicants in 24 hours.

If they buy another regional it will be in small pieces at the fire sale.
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